This is why the Carabao Cup semi-final draw couldn’t have worked out better for Newcastle United | OneFootball

I said after beating Brentford, there was a slight downside in discovering that neither of the unlikely upsets had occurred that would have made the route to winning the Carabao cup a lot easier. We all knew Liverpool and Arsenal lay in wait as we tried to consider the lesser of two evils in the Spurs v Man Utd match the following night.

I think everyone was agreed that Tottenham were the preferable option, given we’ve had enough late stage disappointments against Salford Reds in cup competitions, so that one at least turned out the best way.

So, after the agonising wait of the lengthy post-match analysis, finally the Carabao Cup semi-final draw came around on Thursday night.

It was difficult to know who to want, but looking at it the morning after, I have to break the news that we’ve actually had the best draw possible.

First off, the second leg at home is what you want. Any debate around this is just plain stupid, it’s a massive advantage. You can play a tight game in the away leg, knowing fine well that the tie will be settled at your own ground. The away goals rule was put in place to stop teams just locking the door, but it’s recent abolition of that rule means the tactic should absolutely be to nullify the opponent and get them back to your own place. This was secured and we’ll hopefully have a magnificent atmosphere under the lights in early February, for a tie that hangs in the balance.

So, to the identity of the opponent.

Arsenal is of course never what you want in any cup draw, but from a pretty unpalatable selection, it may just be the best. If you’re doubting that, then I suggest you go and look at Arsenal’s fixtures for the month of January.

First of all, you need to remember that the Gunners are fighting for a top four place, and will see themselves as still in contention for the Premier League title. They sit six points behind Liverpool at the top and three ahead of 5th placed Man City. The need for Premier League points is pressing, and in the week ahead of our game they face Brentford and Brighton away, tough games that need full focus. As a little bonus, they kick off both matches later than us, with Brentford on the Wednesday night (Monday at Man U for the Mags) and Brighton the late Saturday KO. I would hope that Eddie effectively deprioritises the trip to Tottenham and puts full focus on this match, while Arsenal will face playing two bigger games for them in the seven days prior to the semi.

Then you need to look at what comes immediately after.

It’s a knocking bet that Newcastle will rest most of the first team and still easily navigate a home game against League Two Bromley. Arsenal have Man Utd as their first FA Cup opponent, in a competition they would likely prioritise over the League Cup.

Then there’s the small matter of the Champions League. The Gunners sit five points off the leaders of that massive table (also Liverpool) and one point above automatic qualification for the knock outs. In the two midweeks immediately preceding the second leg, Arsenal face Dinamo Zagreb and Girona in matches that will determine their progression. Newcastle, in case you missed it, will have their feet up. They also have Man City, Villa and the small matter of a North London derby in the intervening period between the two legs. Absolutely no room for respite.

What everyone needs to remember in these trophy starved parts, is that the English cups are of little concern to Arsenal and their predominantly international fanbase.

The golden goose of winning the Premier League and the constant allure of Champions League glory consumes them, whilst Arteta winning the FA Cup a few years back seems to be of little relevance to their series of blanks in these two competitions. In this month of horrendous fixtures, our semi-final is the one they will choose to rest players and full strength Newcastle need to turn up and take advantage.

Of course, Liverpool will do similar, so maybe we’d have been better off getting them? Not so. Not only are Liverpool likely to be able to disregard their remaining Champions League games, they have a new manager who will want to secure his first trophy ASAP. Like I said, Arteta knows from experience that winning domestic cups makes little difference at his end. Also, Liverpool may well be the best team in the world right now, so even a reduced side from them may be too much over two legs.

Instead, they have Spurs, and the forlorn hope here needing to be that the country’s most inconsistent team pulls off a pair of their stunning performances against the Scousers, then turns in one of their “Spursy” comedy shows in a potential final with United.

Tottenham have had a near identical season to us, with performances veering from the sublime to the ridiculous, meaning they’re also in mid-table on 23 points. They will have a similar high regard for the League Cup as being the great hope for their season and possibly their manager’s future, and will approach this tie with such vigour that I’m certain they were best avoided, regardless of how awful they are capable of being.

So there it is, best Carabao Cup semi-final draw all round.

Now can we please let’s just win the thing and put that one to bed thanks ta.