The Favorites to Win the Ballon d'Or 2025—Ranked | OneFootball

The 2025 Ballon d’Or winner will be crowned in September as players made their final claim toward the award at the FIFA Club World Cup.

After Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo each opted for pastures new and veered away from the European elite, plenty of intrigue has surrounded the award. While Messi claimed his eighth and surely final Ballon d’Or as recently as 2023, it’s no longer an honor that’s dominated by two all-time greats.

It’s very much an open field, and the absence of a major international tournament this summer means the 2025 award is set to be handed to the player who dominated the most at club level in 2024–25.

Here’s how Sports Illustrated ranks the 15 favorites for the 2025 Ballon d’Or.

15. Michael Olise

Olise starred during his first year at Bayern Munich. / IMAGO/Pakusch

An unassuming introductory press conference left many Bayern Munich supporters skeptical as to whether their new winger from Crystal Palace would be able to cut it with the big boys.Olise quickly went about dashing any doubts, however. The self-assured Frenchman took to life in Munich like a fish to water, as he beat out stellar competition to earn a starting spot down Vincent Kompany’s right flank.Olise ended his first Bundesliga season with 27 goal contributions, helping Die Roten claim the league title. His majesty was on full display again at the Club World Cup, but Bayern exited the competition in the quarterfinals.

14. Cole Palmer

Palmer’s Club World Cup final antics have thurst him up the rankings. / IMAGO/Icon Sportswire

The English playmaker was nowhere near as productive in 2024–25 compared to his first season at Chelsea, when he was handed the keys to west London by Mauricio Pochettino. Palmer endured several lengthy droughts, and the likes of João Neves and Fabián Ruíz may be more deserving of a loftier place in this ranking. However, the Chelsea star’s performance on the big stage to wrap up the season has done his stock the world of good. Palmer helped the Blues turn the tide in their Conference League final victory over Real Betis, and he was named the Club World Cup’s Player of the Tournament after a superb two-goal showing in the final.

13. Gianluigi Donnarumma

The Italian goalkeeper played a key role in PSG’s run to the Champions League final. / IMAGO/LaPresse

There may well have been a few questions over Donnarumma’s status in the French capital entering 2024–25, and the Italian committed a few notable errors during the first half of the season.However, PSG’s number one then embarked on a legacy-defining run of form to help his team reach the Champions League final, producing staggering saves in each of the victories over Liverpool, Aston Villa and Arsenal. He barely had to work for his clean sheet in the showpiece event.Donnarumma has his flaws, but he may well be the best shot-stopper in the world. The Italian won’t become the first goalkeeper to win the Ballon d’Or since Lev Yashin in 1963, though.

12. Pedri

Pedri was an ever-present for club and country. / IMAGO/SOPA Images

Much of Pedri’s senior career has been blighted by injuries, but 2024–25 was a near-perfect season for the midfielder on the fitness front. The Spaniard performed an all-encompassing role in Hansi Flick’s double pivot, expected to supply control in possession and work doggedly in a bid to win the ball back. This was the best season of Pedri’s stop-start career, and a reminder of just how good the Barcelona star is. He operated as the conductor of a Barça side that claimed three domestic titles and fell agonisingly short of the Champions League final.

11. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

The Georgian proved to be the final piece to PSG’s jigsaw. / IMAGO/Nicolo Campo

Kvaratskhelia proved to be the final piece in Luciano Spalletti’s jigsaw in Naples, and the Georgian, after joining PSG in the winter, proved to be the superstar wide man who supplied Luis Enrique’s burgeoning outfit with an added spark. There were multiple factors in PSG’s rise from the brink of league phase Champions League elimination to dominant European champions, and Kvaratskhelia’s arrival was undeniably one of the most significant. The former Napoli superstar is a manager’s dream. He complements an inevitability in the final third with an unrelenting desire to function for the sake of the collective. Kvaratskhelia’s a winger you can’t help but fall in love with.

10. Nuno Mendes

The left-back produced dominant performances on the big stage. / IMAGO/Passion2Press

Full-backs are rarely recognised in Ballon d’Or voting, but the campaign Mendes put together will be hard to ignore. The Portuguese international has always been blessed with bags of talent, but the 2024–25 season felt like Mendes’ first when it all came together. The left-back is not only a mightily dynamic operator when he opts to burst forward, but he’s proven himself to be an excellent one-on-one defender, too.Mendes tamed the likes of Mohamed Salah and Bukayo Saka amid PSG’s journey to Champions League glory, but he perhaps saved his best work for the UEFA Nations League final against Spain, when Lamine Yamal, for seemingly the first time in 2025, was completely nullified down the right flank.

9. Désiré Doué

PSG’s teenage sensation broke through in some style. / IMAGO/Pacific Press Agency

Doué’s increased prominence was another factor in PSG’s meteoric rise in 2025, with the teenager’s arrival from Rennes epitomising the French club’s shift in transfer policy.PSG put the Galactico era behind them and ushered in the young and hungry. Doué had plenty of suitors last summer, but signing for Ligue 1’s dominant force was a no-brainer. The incredibly skillful winger worked his way into Luis Enrique’s strongest XI as his first season with the club progressed, eventually developing into a mainstay within the manager’s fluid front three. Doué has the capacity to make something out of nothing, and he saved his best work for the biggest stage in Munich. Doué dazzled in the Champions League final as PSG wiped the floor with Inter. That performance alone was probably worthy of a top ten finish, but he followed that up with an impressive Club World Cup without dominating the stats sheet. Doué was named Young Player of the Tournament.

8. Harry Kane

Kane finally got his hands on silverware. / IMAGO/Revierfoto

England and Tottenham Hotspur’s all-time record goalscorer has long been slandered for his inability to pick up silverware, and many were convinced that Kane was cursed when his first season with Bayern failed to garner his first major trophy.Kane, however, didn’t have to wait too much longer in Germany to finally break his duck, and the striker’s goals once again played a huge role in Bayern’s Bundesliga success. The do-it-all forward topped the league’s scoring charts for the second season running, with his 41 goals in all competitions complemented by 14 assists. He remains an elite goalscorer and playmaker.

7. Kylian Mbappé

Mbappé’s wait for a Ballon d’Or will continue. / IMAGO/Sports Press Photo

Mbappé’s wait for a first Ballon d’Or is set to continue. After lighting up the 2018 World Cup as a teenager, the Frenchman seemed a sure bet to blossom into a multi-time winner of the illustrious individual award, and Mbappé may yet get his hands on the prize. Many suspected the forward had boosted his chances by signing for Real Madrid, given their success in the Champions League, but 2024–25 was a poor season by their lofty standards. Carlo Ancelotti struggled for the requisite balance, and although Mbappé ended the season with the Pichichi Trophy, Madrid were nowhere near as successful as a collective for the French superstar to be regarded as a serious candidate.

6. Achraf Hakimi

Hakimi is an electrifying force down the right. / IMAGO/Gribaudi/ImagePhoto

Hakimi is not your ordinary full-back. The Moroccan international spent much of his career before PSG functioning as a wing-back, and he operates as an auxiliary winger for Enrique’s side. Fleet of foot with a majestic burst of pace, Hakimi is unstoppable in full cry. Enrique has encouraged the right-back to not only dominate down the touchline but to impact proceedings infield, and we saw Hakimi score a crucial goal in PSG’s Champions League semifinal triumph over Arsenal from a central position on the edge of the box. No full-back in world football carries Hakimi’s threat when he’s surging upfield, and he’s benefited mightily from the synergy and telepathy with which this PSG team play. Right-backs should not be ending seasons with 27 goal contributions, no matter how many games they play.

5. Mohamed Salah

Salah enjoyed a record-breaking season in the Premier League. / IMAGO/Sportimage

The Liverpool hero looked on course for an all-timer of a Premier League campaign, but a relatively slow conclusion to the season took just a hint of gloss off of Salah’s brilliance. The Egyptian somehow failed to break the single season assist record, but he did end the Premier League season with the most goal contributions ever (38) and the Golden Boot. He was hugely responsible for Liverpool’s title success, and his season will be remembered as one of the finest we’ve seen on English shoresHowever, it does feel like Salah’s Ballon d’Or charge lost momentum down the stretch.

4. Raphinha

Hansi Flick helped Raphinha evolve into a Ballon d’Or contender. / IMAGO/ZUMA Press Wire

Doubts over Raphinha’s future prevailed in Catalonia at the end of Xavi’s reign, but new manager Hansi Flick made it clear that he wanted the Brazilian to be part of his plans. The German had a plan for Raphinha, who’d so far flattered to deceive after securing his dream move in 2022. The former Leeds United star most certainly vindicated the manager’s faith, however. Instead of hugging the touchline down the right, Raphinha was asked to perform a more direct role off the shoulder of Robert Lewandowski. He primarily functioned as an in behind runner, and his output was staggering.Raphinha ended 2024–25 with 34 goals and 25 assists in 57 games. The Brazilian came to the fore when it mattered most for the Blaugrana.

3. Vitinha

Vitinha is the beating heart of PSG’s midfield. / IMAGO/NurPhoto

His midfield teammates didn’t quite make the cut, but Vitinha finishes with a lofty standing in our Ballon d’Or ranking. The Portuguese midfielder produced a campaign of football well worthy of a podium finish.Vitinha functions as the beating heart of the best team in world football, contrary to the Club World Cup final result. The slight operator is the conductor of Enrique’s PSG, with the Spaniard asking Vitinha to drop into defense to help build play but also drive the team forward with swift combinations and dazzling dribbles. He’s incredibly smart and has been nothing short of a joy to watch over the past 11 months.

2. Lamine Yamal

Barcelona’s teenage superstar will surely end his career with multiple Ballons d’Or. / IMAGO/DeFodi Images

Raphinha may well have been the numbers guy in Barcelona’s attack, but had you tuned into Flick’s side for even a brief period, it wouldn’t have taken long to gauge who their best player was. Teenager Yamal is nothing short of a freak of nature. He couldn’t match Raphinha statistically, but there was no one else in the world who was performing as masterfully as the Spaniard week in, week out.Yamal boasts the sort of gravitational pull that only the greats possess when the ball’s at his feet, and there were performances from the now-18-year-old in crunch time that made you wonder whether this was the most talented teenager this sport’s seen since Pelé was helping Brazil to glory at the 1958 World Cup. Yamal’s probably the best player in the world, but he’s set to be pipped to the 2025 Ballon d’Or.

1. Ousmané Dembélé

Dembélé is the favourite to win the esteemed award. / IMAGO/Action Plus

Dembélé has long been earmarked as a talent with Ballon d’Or potential, but injuries and infuriating inconsistency have persistently prevented the Frenchman from coming close previously.However, 2024–25 was the season everything came together for the mightily gifted forward, who functioned as a marauding false nine in PSG’s supreme attack. His shift to a central position was the making of Enrique’s all-conquering outfit, and he scored his 35th goal of the season during the latter stages of the Club World Cup. The Champions League was always going to play a crucial role in deciding who would win this year’s award, and Dembélé scored eight times and added six assists for the eventual champions. Given the role he played in PSG’s transformation, Dembélé is rightfully considered the favorite.