Thank you Richard Hughes! Florian Wirtz is a statistical unicorn | OneFootball

Liverpool aren’t looking to win the transfer window or boost their share price. When they turn to the transfer market for improvements, they have one objective in mind.

To give the team the best opportunity of being successful.

They ignore outside noise, more often than not overlooking the flavour of the month players, to improve their squad. They use their internal valuations to ensure they aren’t overpaying. With a finite amount of money to spend, they have to make sure they’re getting value for money at all times.

Generally speaking, they’ve had success with this approach.

Everyone said they’d overpaid when they spent £34million on Sadio Mane. He went on to help the Reds win everything. He even claimed a Golden Boot. The same was said when the Reds paid a reported £39million for Mohamed Salah. The ‘one-season wonder’ went on to become the greatest right-winger in Premier League history. Diogo Jota was massively overpriced at £40million, apparently. Injuries have robbed him of fulfilling his potential but he’s still been involved in 61 Premier League goals in 6,950 minutes since the switch to Anfield.

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When fit, he has, more often than not, delivered.

Virgil Van Dijk was described as a ‘Chris Smalling’ when he arrived for £75million. How could the centre-back possibly justify the price-tag? I reckon he’s done a good job of that with two Premier League titles, a Champions League, a Club World Cup, a UEFA Super Cup, two Carabao Cups and an FA Cup. He’s the measuring stick for all centre-backs.

Alisson fell into the Van Dijk category too when he arrived for a then world record fee for a goalkeeper of £66million. He’s not just one of Liverpool’s all-time best shot-stoppers, he’s one of the best goalkeepers in history. The Brazilian has been pivotal to the club’s success since his signing in 2018.

To say it was money well spent would be an understatement.

Darwin Nunez and Naby Keita are the only two failures since the hiring of Jurgen Klopp in 2015. And even then, both played a part in the Reds winning a Premier League title. The Reds will also get most of their money back on Darwin when he departs this summer.

As detailed in the recent Anfield Watch newsletter, Florian Wirtz is more Van Dijk and Alisson than he is Keita and Darwin.

Liverpool have agreed to pay an initial £100million for the German maestro.

The response has been entirely predictable.

Huge overpayment. Liverpool have had their pants pulled down. Rayan Cherki was right there for £30million.

Some are looking for a reaction. Others, meanwhile, genuinely believe the Premier League champions have made a massive mistake.

Here’s the thing though, Liverpool have pumped serious money into assembling the best data team in world football. They’ve been working on their data models for the best part of a decade. They have the best people in key positions while arming these guys with the best chance of getting it right.

William Spearman, a man with a Ph.D. in Particle Physics, joined in 2018 and the Reds signed a deal with SkillCorner, for tracking data, in 2019. They’ve been working on their Pitch Control model for years. A model that gives them data that could best be described as Expected Threat on steroids.

They’ve added to their data ranks this summer with the hiring of Laurie Shaw. The Reds are investing in this area of the sport for a reason. It gives them an edge over rivals. It allows them to see things that others simply aren’t looking at.

If the smartest people in the room haven’t raised any red flags with the club spending £100million on Wirtz, that should be enough of an indication that the club feel they’re getting value for money.

Because there are cheaper alternatives out there. Cherki went for £30million. Xavi Simons is reportedly available for £70million. If there wasn’t much in it, Liverpool would’ve moved for those players rather than Wirtz.

The fact they’ve allowed Cherki to join a Premier League rival while Simons continues to be in limbo is enough of a sign that the Reds are confident in their decision.

Why wouldn’t they be? In the publicly available data, Wirtz profiles as a statistical unicorn.

In the data that Liverpool are looking at, he’s probably showing up in the Lionel Messi section of influence. That isn’t an exaggeration either.

It is rare in football to find an attacker who can do everything. By everything I mean everything. Not just score and assist.

Wirtz is a goal threat, he’s a creative menace, he’s a ball carrier, he’s someone who can progress the play with his pass selection, and, importantly, he’s someone who can retain possession.

He combines it all. He is a final phase cheat code.

Per xfb Analytics, Wirtz is in the 90th percentile or above for big chances created, crosses, Expected Threat from crosses, Expected Threat in the final third, dribbles ending in a foul, non-penalty Expected Goals, passes into the box, Key Passes, Through Passes, Expected Assists, Shots and Shots on Target, carries, carry length, passes into the final third, passes received in the final third and progressive carries, on a per 90 basis.

Basically near enough every attacking metric.

This is, of course, tied to output and volume, but do you know how rare it is to find someone who ranks well for shots, chances created, ball progression and dribbles? Usually, top players tick a few boxes. They don’t tick them all.

If Wirtz is able to replicate what he did in the Bundesliga for Liverpool in the Premier League, the £100million fee will look like a bargain. If he’s able to improve on that, which he should be able to in theory alongside better players in a superior team, the Ballon d’Or could find a new, long-term home.