Survival battle: These teams HSV can leave behind | OneFootball

After a major upheaval and a sobering preparation, HSV is considered the number one relegation candidate just before the season starts. However, there are teams that seem beatable over the distance.

Five games, five losses, 2:14 goals: The preparation record of Hamburger SV against top-class opponents speaks volumes. The personnel upheaval – nine new arrivals came – and the switch from a possession-oriented 4-3-3 system to a more destructive 3-4-3 has proven to be of little benefit so far. Defensively, Merlin Polzin's squad remains vulnerable. Additionally, the joy of playing was lost, as the alarmingly weak performance in the DFB-Pokal against the amateur league team FK Pirmasens (2:1 after extra time) underlined. After a seven-year absence, the Hanseatics do not seem prepared for the Bundesliga comeback, but they still want to leave at least two clubs behind.

The 1. FC Heidenheim is a candidate for this, having narrowly escaped relegation last season. In two dramatic relegation matches (2:2/2:1), they edged out SV Elversberg thanks to a fine individual performance by Leonardo Scienza. However, the 29 points previously collected would have meant direct relegation in many other seasons. The lack of double burden could prove advantageous for the men from the Ostalb. After the Conference League exit against Copenhagen, the point average rose to 1.25 per game, which would have brought them 13th place over an entire season.

HSV must target northern rivals

Nevertheless, there are good arguments that 1. FC Heidenheim will once again be deeply involved in the relegation battle. Their own squad has rather deteriorated. With Frans Krätzig and Paul Wanner, two strong individualists moved on. Clear reinforcement came only between the posts with the loan of Diant Ramaj. Moreover, the competition is likely to be stronger than Kiel and Bochum last season.

The FC St. Pauli also benefited from the rather weak competition, holding the class quite easily with 32 points – not even one point per game. The outstanding defense proved to be the showpiece. Only 41 goals conceded – the second fewest in the Bundesliga – had to be accepted by HSV's city rival. St. Pauli will continue to rely on this strength. Coach Alexander Blessin stayed on board despite inquiries from other clubs, as did all the regular players.

(Photo by Stuart Franklin/Getty Images)

Offensively, however, the number of question marks has increased again. Already in the past season, there were only 28 goals to celebrate. With Morgan Guilavogui and Elias Saad, two key figures left the club. The new arrivals all lack Bundesliga experience. Sports director Andreas Bornemann has usually impressed with good transfer rates in recent years. But it remains to be seen whether the players coming predominantly from significantly weaker leagues can help immediately. The lack of attacking power could ultimately be St. Pauli's downfall.

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A similar situation exists with Werder Bremen, another HSV rival. They come from a season in which they narrowly missed out on participating in the European Cup. However, the mood has completely changed within a few weeks. Successful coach Ole Werner left the club. Several regular players, including top scorer Marvin Ducksch, also sought new challenges. The sports officials around Clemens Fritz quickly presented Horst Steffen as a new head coach but have been surprisingly reserved in signing new players. The ten million euros invested were spent exclusively on offensive player Samuel Mbangula.

The Ducksch gap has not yet been closed. Meanwhile, SVW was extremely harmless in preparation, failing to score in four consecutive matches. This continued in the DFB-Pokal with a last-minute exit in Bielefeld (0:1). Thus, Bremen, whose coach Steffen stands for attractive attacking football, faces the same problems as FC St. Pauli. Additionally, their defense is usually shaky. Last year's eighth-place finisher could therefore become a permanent part of the relegation battle.

Cologne and who else?

As the second promoted team, 1. FC Köln returns to the Bundesliga. They did not present themselves as overly dominant in the lower league, winning many games unconvincingly by one goal difference. Coach Gerhard Struber had to leave shortly before the end of the season. Veteran Friedhelm Funkel finally provided clarity, retiring again after two victories. Lukas Kwasniok, who almost landed at HSV in the winter, now carries the responsibility on the sidelines. Over 20 million euros have already been invested in transfer fees to bring the squad to Bundesliga level. The newly formed team showed what they are capable of, for example, with a 4:0 in a test match against Atalanta.

However, Cologne also had weaker performances in preparation, such as the 2:2 against Fortuna Köln. "We have to be honest: For some, it is still far from enough for the Bundesliga, and for others, the point may have come where it is no longer enough for the Bundesliga," Kwasniok complained after the game. During his time in Paderborn, he was known for publicly criticizing his team or even individual players. This approach could still cause him problems given the excited environment on the Rhine. The starting program consisting of Mainz, Freiburg, Wolfsburg, Leipzig, and Stuttgart could directly pave the way into the first crisis and an anything but carefree season.

(Photo by Christof Koepsel/Getty Images)

Relegation danger is also not excluded for Union Berlin. The "Iron" are now an established Bundesliga team but went through a complicated preparation. Coach Steffen Baumgart has not yet managed to implement a sustainable offensive concept aside from crosses – which would probably not surprise Hamburg observers. Additionally, with Benedict Hollerbach, the best striker moved to Mainz, so the games of the Köpenickers, who always rely on a stable defense, are unlikely to be very goal-rich. If the many close encounters do not fall in their favor, a difficult season threatens.

The TSG Hoffenheim comes from such a season. They only managed 32 points and would have been a deserved relegation given numerous weak performances. However, the already existing quality in the squad, the new arrivals, and the good approaches suggest that the Kraichgauers will stay away from the relegation battle this time.

What are the chances for HSV?

Unlike last season, where Holstein Kiel and VfL Bochum were obvious candidates, it is harder this time to find seemingly clear relegation candidates. Currently, HSV itself is considered the most promising contender for 18th place. They should initially focus on leaving at least two teams behind. Besides 1. FC Heidenheim, St. Pauli, 1. FC Köln, Werder Bremen, and possibly a team not necessarily on the radar seem to be within reach. The first two home games against St. Pauli and Heidenheim already have a decisive character. A good start to the season would not only bring back the promotion euphoria but also significantly increase the chances of staying in the league.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇩🇪 here.