Serie A 2025/26: Opta tips Inter 🏆 Napoli chase, Juve, Milan trail | OneFootball

The start of Serie A is just around the corner and, as every year, the question remains the same: who will win the championship? Predictions, fan debates, and early bets fuel the anticipation.

Serie A 2025/26, the Opta algorithm crowns Inter. Napoli and Atalanta follow, Juve and Milan further behind

Opta Predictor, the statistical model developed to estimate the season's outcome based on thousands of simulations, attempts to provide clarity.

How the Opta Predictor works

The system considers numerous factors: team values, historical statistics, recent performance, head-to-head records, and performance indices. Each season is simulated up to 10,000 times, match by match, from the first to the last day. The collected data generates a probability percentage for each team, which is constantly updated during the season, incorporating real results and club performances.

The predicted standings: Inter ahead of everyone

For the 2025/26 season, Opta sees Cristian Chivu's Inter as the absolute favorite: the Nerazzurri have a 36.09% chance of winning the title. Behind them, with much lower percentages, are Napoli and Atalanta, both estimated around 13%.

Gian Piero Gasperini's Roma occupies the fourth position with a 10.29% chance, followed by Milan (7.46%) and Juventus (7.33%), both considered more likely to secure a Champions League spot than to compete for the title.

Here is the complete projection:

Inter – 36.09%

Napoli – 13.00%

Atalanta – 13.00%

Roma – 10.29%

Milan – 7.46%

Juventus – 7.33%

Lazio – 4.70%

Bologna – 3.29%

Fiorentina – 2.95%

Como – 0.43%

Torino

Genoa

Udinese

Cagliari

Sassuolo

Cremonese

Verona

Pisa

Parma

Lecce

Champions League and possible surprises

While the championship race seems reserved for Inter, Napoli, and Atalanta, the Champions League probabilities also involve Lazio (29.68%), Bologna (24.45%), and Fiorentina (21.50%), with percentages suggesting a fierce battle for the top four positions.

Keep an eye on Como and Torino: although their championship chances are below 1%, the algorithm places them mid-table, indicating the possibility that they could become troublesome outsiders for the big teams.

The relegation battle

At the bottom, Opta simulations see Pisa, Parma, and Lecce as most at risk of relegation. However, no team starts with a 0% chance of survival: even the least favored have room to overturn predictions, confirming the unpredictability of the Italian league.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.