Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prediction: Los Blancos to edge past Madrid rivals | OneFootball

Real Madrid make the short trip across the city to play neighbours Atletico in the second leg of their Champions League last 16 match, with the tie nicely poised with the reigning champions leading 2-1.

Rodrygo and Brahim Diaz were both on target for Carlo Ancelotti’s side while Julian Alvarez kept the tie alive when he netted his 22nd goal of the season.

This will be the fourth time the two sides have met this season and it’s been hard to separate them. Both La Liga games finished 1-1 before last week’s meeting and Real have only won once at the home of their rivals since 2019.

They are only separated by one point in the league table too with Real joint top with Barcelona on 57 and Atletico sit third just a point behind them - and they have actually lost fewer games this season, just three defeats in their 27 league matches.

This is the sixth time the teams have met in the Champions League in the last 12 seasons and Real have come out on top in each meeting - so far, including the 2014 and 2016 finals and the 2017 semi-final, when they won 4-2 on aggregate.

But Diego Simeone’s side should have confidence going into Wednesday’s match because they have lost just once in their last seven home derbies.

Football betting sites are also expecting another close contest with the home side favourite for the win at 8/5, while Real are 87/50 and you can get 11/4 on another draw.

Atletico go into the game unbeaten in their last five cup matches and they have progressed in the Champions League on three occasions after losing the first leg.

Real on the other hand have progressed from 21 of their last 22 Champions League ties when they’ve won the first leg, with the exception against Ajax in the last 16 in 2018-19. Under boss Carlo Ancelotti, they’ve progressed from nine out of nine.

Los Colchoneros have built something of a fortress at home though and haven’t lost at either the Vicente Calderon and Metropolitano Stadium in this competition since a 3-2 defeat to Ajax in March 1997 and are unbeaten in 18 since, winning 11 and drawing the other seven.

They know only a win will be enough if they are to knock out the 15-time champions and they certainly have the firepower.

In their eight group matches, Atletico averaged 2.5 goals per game and conceded 1.5 goals per game, which is the identical record of Real but they have since played two more matches as they overcame Manchester City to reach the last 16.

They won that tie 6-3 on aggregate to take their number of goals scored to 28 in 11 games at an average of 2.55 goals per game, which is their highest since 2016/17. They have also had more shots on target this season with 78, than they had in 13 games last season.

Betting sites are offering 4/7 on both teams to score and you can get 7/2 on both teams to score and the game to end in a draw.

A draw would obviously be enough for Real to progress, but Atletico need a win to reach the quarter-finals but if anyone knows how to do enough it’s Ancelotti’s side, who always come alive in this competition.

Real have so many attacking threats in their side with Rodrygo, Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior among the competition's top scorers, which makes it hard to predict who will be key on Wednesday.

For the home side, Alvarez has been involved in at least one goal in each of his last five Uefa Champions League appearances for Atlético, with six goals and one assist.

The only two Argentinean players to score or assist in six in a row are Claudio López, who scored six in 1999 for Valencia, and Lionel Messi, with eight in 2011-12 and six in 2014 for Barcelona.

Betting apps are offering 6/1 on him scoring first or last or 43/20 to score at any time but to keep the options open a little bit more we’re going for him to score or assist.

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