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·30 Januari 2025
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·30 Januari 2025
Philippe Clement's side can get the win... just
Rangers v Union St GilloiseThursday 30 January, 20:00Live on Discovery+ & TNT Sports 3
The perception from those who only keep half an eye on matters in Scotland is that Rangers have been a bit of a disaster domestically but found a fair degree of solace in Europe.
That's sort of fair. They're 10 points behind great rivals Celtic in the SPL while in Europe they sit 13th out of 36 in the mammoth Europa League table after three wins, two draws and two defeats. Those losses came to two of the top five - Lyon (1-4) and Manchester United (1-2).
But look at the home and away records in the SPL and Rangers have actually banked more points at Ibrox than Celtic have at Parkhead. The numbers are impressive: Rangers have won 11 out of 12 at home (drew the other), plundering 31 goals and conceding just four.
In this tournament, Philippe Clement's side recovered from the 4-1 home defeat to Lyon by thrashing FCSB 4-0 while they were 15 minutes away from beating Spurs before settling for a 1-1 draw.
Since that Tottenham game, they've won five out of five at Ibrox, a run that includes a pair of 3-0 wins over Celtic and fourth-placed Aberdeen.
It's easy to put a positive spin on Union St Gilloise. Like Rangers, they have 11 points from their seven Europa League games so far, also winning three, drawing two and losing two. One standout stat is that USG have shipped just six goals and only two teams have conceded fewer.
Domestically, USG have shown they're hard to beat. They trail leaders Genk by 11 points but have been defeated just three times; 10 draws have halted their progress. As in Europe, they don't ship goals easily and boast the best defensive record in the Belgian Pro League.
Similar to the Champions League, only the top eight go through automatically to the next stage and that mark is currently 14 points. Both sides here could reach it with a win but would have to rely on results from elsewhere.
In terms of form, USG may be timing things just right.
They've won 10 of their last 13 games in all competitions and, significantly, have charged up the Europa League standings by winning their last three matches: 1-0 at FC Twente and a pair of 2-1 home wins over Nice and Braga.
The good form of the visitors is reflected in the prices and Rangers are odds against at 11/10. Union SG are 11/5 and The Draw the biggest of the three options at 13/5.
Some head-to-head form favours the hosts. Rangers beat USG 3-0 at Ibrox in the 2022/23 Champions League third qualifying round over losing the first leg 2-0. And the hosts have won all their previous six home games against Belgian sides in Europe.
The dynamic is interesting here with both sides safe in terms of a play-off qualification spot although getting a seeding by finishing 9th to 16th is an incentive. Realistically, it looks unlikely either can make the top eight although Rangers have a good goal difference (+5) and that could just make the difference.
That means any sort of win is good - they don't have to go out and win by three or four for example - and I expect this to be tight given that USG are no pushovers.
So let's try the Winning Margin market and take Rangers to win by exactly 1 goal at 3/1. To back that up, USG's two away defeats in the Europa League this season were by that minimum margin.
Hamza Igamane has been a real hit in Europe this season. The Moroccan has played in five of the games and scored four goals. That tally includes strikes in both home matches he's appeared in: the final goal in the 4-0 romp over FCSB and the opener against Spurs.
After a slow start to the season - one goal in his first 11 games - Igamane has netted 12 times in his last 16 matches.
A scorer in his last two at Ibrox, Igamane to score first and Rangers to win by a single goal margin is an appealing 14/1 Bet Builder punt.
1pt - Rangers to win by exactly 1 goal @ 3/1 0.5pts - Back Hamza Igamane first goalscorer and Rangers to win by exactly 1 goal on Bet Builder @ 14/1
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Staked: 40pts
Returned: 27.95pts
P/L: -12.05pts
Previous:2023/2024 P/L: -£20.792022/2023 P/L: +£16.792021/2022 P/L: +£8.692020/2021 P/L: +£3.06
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