Premier League Saturday Tips: Mitoma and Foden backed plus huge 22/1 Liverpool shout | OneFootball

English Premier League

Chris Wood, headline-maker

Ste Tudor backs hard-fought wins for Liverpool, Newcastle and Brighton and Foden to shine vs Chelsea...

Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest (15:00) - High-flyers

Featuring two sides living their best life, this is a fascinating clash to the power of ten.

The Cherries are unbeaten in their last 10 outings, and only seem to be getting better on a weekly basis. Andoni Iraola's men were superb from the opening minute last week at St James Park, fluid, dangerous and complete.

Forest meanwhile have accrued more points from their last 10 league commitments than any other side.

Moreover, the visitors have conceded the fewest goals in that period and for all that Chris Wood's prolificacy is gaining deserved headlines this is an outstanding campaign built on an extremely well-constructed rearguard. Last term, Forest were conceding from 13.2% of their shots faced. This time out it's 7.5% and Matz Sels in nets has to take a lot of credit for that.

So who wins this battle of the high-flyers? As always, when two in-form teams collide it's wise to leave that to the fates and instead dig down into a detail.

Due to contrasting styles, Bournemouth have taken on 81 more shots than Forest this season at a rate that is increasing. Nineteen apiece away to Newcastle and at home to Everton in recent weeks is testament to that.

Brighton v Everton (15:00) - Bad timing

This feels like bad timing for the Seagulls, encountering an Everton team buoyant after securing a first win in seven, and bolstered by a growing belief that David Moyes could yet turn their fortunes around.

Furthermore, this will be Moyes' first full week of uninterrupted training. A chance to work on the Toffees' shape and balance and perhaps eradicate a couple of fixable flaws.

To be clear, Brighton should still be backed to prevail at the Amex. It's just that a week or two earlier and a repeat showing from the opening day of the season could have been legitimately predicted. Back then, Fabian Hurzeler's newly-inherited team comprehensively out-classed their opponents at Goodison, with Kaoru Mitoma their chief tormentor racking up four shots, three on target.

The winger has averaged 1.5 SOT from his last two league outings.

Now? Now they should extend on back-to-back victories but will find it a much tougher task, and this leads us to the over/under market. Three of Brighton's last four home contests have produced two or under goals.

Liverpool v Ipswich (15:00) - 22/1 long-shot tempts

This has distinct home banker vibes given that Liverpool are unbeaten in 17 and boast the highest xG in the top-flight. The Tractor Boys meanwhile are bruised from a six-goal hammering at the hands of Man City. Indeed their score aggregate against the current top six this term reads 3-18.

Even when we isolate individual match-ups you fear for the visitors. Leif Davis has created 21 chances from open play down the left for Kieran McKenna's side but defensively he is highly suspect. Mo Salah is going to have a field day.

So why is there a nagging feeling that this will be a toil for the hosts?

Perhaps it's because the Reds have found themselves behind in each of their last three league home games. On two of those occasions it took them well over half an hour to draw level.

Moreover, Arne Slot's men tend to get better and stronger over the course of each 90 minutes and this is epitomised by their main attacking threat. Remarkably, 16 of Salah's 18-goal haul this season have been converted after the break.

This is admittedly a long-shot, but it tempts, nonetheless.

Southampton v Newcastle (15:00) - Overdue fight shown

Was last week's 4-1 home loss to Bournemouth a one-off blip for the Magpies? Certainly it was unexpected, Eddie Howe's side previously conceding just once in nine hours of Premier League football while putting six teams straight to the sword.

Howe blamed the drubbing on fatigue and a slow start and perhaps their overall form since mid-December means we should give them the benefit of the doubt for now. Looking to right a wrong, Newcastle to lead on 20 mins offers up 21/10

Still, here they encounter a Saints side who have shown a bit of fight of late, even if the defeats keep on coming.

Seemingly relegation-doomed, Southampton were unfortunate not to leave Old Trafford with a least a point a week ago, forcing Andre Onana into making five saves. At Forest they nearly pulled off a miraculous comeback, scoring twice for only the third time this season.

With the visitors furnished with Isak and Gordon, plus factoring in the Saints' propensity to concede a plethora of chances, an away win is strongly fancied on the South Coast. But both teams to score appeals.

The Magpies should also win out in the discipline stakes. Southampton have picked up a league-high 65 cautions in 2024/25. Newcastle have only seen yellow 1.3 times per 90 in their last six contests.

Wolves v Arsenal (15:00) - 11/4 for early goals for visitors

The Gunners have been victorious in each of their last six meetings with Wolves, four of them to nil, but that latter detail is maybe not so pertinent due to William Saliba being injured. Since the start of 2022/23, Arsenal have conceded 0.8 goals per 90 with the French defender present. Without him that rises sharply to 1.7.

Additionally, the title chasers have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last nine away fixtures.

That puts the spotlight on the host's attacking fare but not so much Matheus Cunha whose form has dipped since Boxing Day as transfer speculation distracts. Instead, Jorgen Strand Larsen is a shout, the tall striker committing to 13 shots in his last five home games, nine of them on target. He is 10/11 to have 1 or more SOT this Saturday.

As for the outcome, Arsenal have to be backed, especially as Wolves have conceded three goals in three games consecutively. Don't discount an early advantage for them either. Only Man City have scored more first half goals this season while only Southampton have conceded more before the break than the struggling hosts.

Man City v Chelsea (17:30) - Walking, not yet running

A second-half collapse in Paris is proof enough that City are still a seriously troubled proposition but still, a six-goal demolition of Ipswich. An eight-goal cup trouncing of Salford. There are clear signs that Manchester City are finally in recovery on the domestic front, walking if not running.

The same goes too as regards to individual performances. From August to Christmas, Phil Foden consistently disappointed, not 100% fit and a shadow of his usual self. Against Ipswich he converted twice, assisted once, executed two key passes and was a bundle of endeavour and inventiveness throughout. No Premier League player has scored more in 2025.

City are unbeaten in their last 10 encounters with Chelsea across all comps and a win at the Etihad this Saturday will be a meaningful statement about where they now are after months for turmoil.With Chelsea winless in three on the road and Nicolas Jackson six games deep into a goal drought, it feels likely that statement will be made.

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