Opta now rate bonus Champions League place a foregone conclusion – Intriguing | OneFootball

As no doubt you will know, the top four in the 2024/25 Premier League table will automatically qualify for next season’s Champions League.

However, there is then the possibility of fifth place also getting a Champions League spot.

Well, more than just a possibility…

Last season was the first time two extra Champions League places were handed to the countries who saw their clubs collectively perform the best in European competitions.

If that had been in place previously, five of the six preceding seasons would have seen the Premier League winning a fifth spot, however, it was Serie A and the Bundesliga clubs who outperformed the English clubs, to each get an extra spot for the 2024/25 Champions League competition.

However, this current 2024/25 season, English clubs are collectively doing so much better than those from other countries, the Opta forecasting system sees it as a 97.8% chance currently, that fifth place this season in the Premier League, will get a Champions League place.

But who has the best chance of securing Champions League football next season?

With England given a 97.8% chance of finishing in the top two of Uefa’s coefficients rankings and receiving a bonus place in next season’s competition, it is highly likely to be a race to finish in the top five of the Premier League this campaign.”

The 97.8% chance of five Premier League places for the Champions League, due to how English clubs have performed so well in this season’s European competitions so far.

ESPN report on which countries currently in best position to get one of the two bonus places in the 2025/26 Champions League competition:

How does the coefficient table look this season?

1. England, 14.035 2. Italy, 12.562 3. Portugal, 12.450 4. Belgium, 11.900 5. Spain, 11.892 6. Germany, 10.640 7. France, 9.928 8. Sweden, 9.375 9. Czechia, 8.700 10. Cyprus, 8.687

After a winter break, Tuesday sees European football back in action with Champions League games.

At 5.45pm Aston Villa kick-off away at Monaco, then 8pm it is Liverpool v Lille.

Grit your teeth and cheer on Villa and the scousers…

As a quick reminder, this is how the Premier League table currently looks on Tuesday (21 January 2025):

If Newcastle United win at rock bottom Southampton on Saturday, Eddie Howe and his side are guaranteed to move back into the top five, as Man City play Chelsea the same day.

If United give Southampton an absolute hammering and Chelsea don’t win at Man City, then Newcastle could even go fourth.