Only ‘catastrophic’ set of results would deny Newcastle United at least Europa League – Here’s why | OneFootball

On Sunday, I had an article published on The Mag, musing that missing out on Champions League qualification might not be the disaster some suggest it would be, because qualifying for one of those lesser European competitions (Europa League, Conference League) provides a more likely pathway to another cup success.

Newcastle United have already secured European football next season, by dint of their wonderful win against Liverpool in the League Cup Final on 16th March.

Newcastle United guaranteed UEFA Conference League football at the moment.

Although admittedly, the Europa League would be better.

However, buoyed by a brilliant run of form in the league since just before Christmas (thirteen wins in our last eighteen fixtures) Newcastle United are well-placed for a return to the Champions League next season, after an absence of just one year.

Defeat against Aston Villa on Saturday was a setback, there’s no doubt about that. However, with five games left to play, the bookies still think Newcastle United are odds on to finish in the top four.

Due to how English clubs have performed in Europe this season, finishing in the top five will guarantee Champions League qualification, with sixth place qualifying for the Europa League.

Liverpool have already qualified for next season’s Champions League and Arsenal are pretty much assured a place, meaning Newcastle United are competing for one of three remaining CL places via the Premier League, and their competition consists of Manchester City, Nottingham Forest, Chelsea and Aston Villa.

There are other permutations to consider…

Especially if Newcastle United did miss out on top five in the Premier League.

I think it’s very likely that if NUFC didn’t get the top European competition, then we will be playing in the Europa League, not the Conference League.

Given the eight point gap between Aston Villa and eighth placed Bournemouth (see below), it’s safe to assume that neither Newcastle United, nor the quartet competing with them for third, fourth and fifth place, won’t finish outside of the top seven.

Finishing sixth in the Premier League will bump Newcastle United up from the UEFA Conference League into next season’s Europa League.

It’s also quite possible that finishing seventh will also deliver the same outcome…

This is because of who is left in this season’s FA Cup.

With Manchester City, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa making it to the last four of the FA Cup, the odds are in favour of one of them succeeding. Only Crystal Palace, who the bookies rank as a 5/1 shot to win the FA Cup, can deny one of Man City, Forest or Villa.

If whoever wins the FA Cup also qualifies for Europe by dint of their league placing, should Newcastle United end up in seventh place in the Premier League, that would also bump Newcastle United up from the UEFA Conference League into next season’s Europa League.

Put simply, even though Newcastle United are assured of UEFA Conference League football, only a catastrophic set of results between now and the end of the season will prevent Newcastle United’s upgrade to either the Champions League or the Europa League.