Man City vs Real Madrid prediction: Watch out for Vinicius in heavyweight showdown | OneFootball

We’re used to seeing Manchester City taking on Real Madrid in the Champions League, but I don’t think too many people would have expected them to be going head-to-head to stay in the competition (8pm, Prime Video).

The new format of the competition meant that only the top eight sides qualified automatically for the last 16, while the next 16 teams must square off in a two-legged play-off to reach the knockout stages.

After winning just three of their eight Champions League matches, there were some nervy moments for City who needed a victory in their final league game against Club Brugge to make the knockout phase.

Goals from Mateo Kovacic, Savinho and an own goal from Joel Ordonez saw City come from behind to secure a 3-1 win and finish 22nd in the league, 11 places and four points behind Tuesday’s opponents.

After winning the 2024 trophy, Real Madrid also struggled this time around losing three of their eight games against Lille, AC Milan and Liverpool.

But, unlike City, their domestic form has been impressive, and they sit top of LaLiga with 50 points from 23 games.

They go into the match in Manchester with 10 wins from their last 14 games, but they were beaten 1-0 by Espanyol and held to a draw by second-placed Atletico Madrid in their last two league contests.

For City their indifferent form has been across all competitions and on Saturday they struggled to overcome League One side Leyton Orient.

They trailed Richie Wellen’s side for 40 minutes before Kevin De Bruyne came off the bench and inspired them to victory, scoring the winner 11 minutes from time.

It was a much-changed side from the one we expect to line up at the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday, but Pep Guardiola will know they will have to be at their best if they are to stay in the competition.

The last time Guardiola’s first-choice side were in action they were thrashed 5-1 by Arsenal, further proof that anything can happen in this one.

City used to be so easy to predict because they tended just to win; now, though, just about any result is on the table.

Despite failing to perform in the league phase, football betting sites have kept faith with both City and Real, who appear in the top six in the Champions League outright market.

You can get 8/1 on Carlo Ancelotti’s side to win the trophy for the 16th time and 13/1 on City to be celebrating in Munich on 31 May.

This will be the 13th time the two sides have met in the Champions League, and City have won four, drawn five and lost three of those games.

It is also the fourth successive season they have met and three of the last four matches have ended all square, including both last season.

They played out a 3-3 draw in Madrid in the first leg of the quarter-finals with Bernardo Silva, Phil Foden and Josko Gvardiol all on target for the visitors.

In the second leg in Manchester, De Bruyne cancelled out an early Rodrygo strike to send the game to extra time and a penalty shootout, which Real won 4-3.

Despite only losing three times against Ancelotti’s side, City have been knocked out of the competition by them more than anyone else - three times and they will be desperate to prevent it being four.

Betting sites make City favourites to win the first leg at the Etihad at 11/8 with Real 19/10 for the win and 14/5 for the draw.

With the attacking players in both teams, I think we can expect goals, but we need to see a huge improvement from City if they are to come out on top on Tuesday.

City striker Erling Haaland hasn’t scored in any of his four appearances against Real Madrid, and you would expect his luck to change eventually.

He has managed 13 shots without any success so far and betting apps are offering 11/10 on him scoring any time to take his tally to 26 for the season.

De Bruyne, on the other hand, has been directly involved in eight goals in eight appearances against Real, with four goals and four assists so far. He’s also the only player to score and assist in a Champions League game against Real Madrid on multiple occasions, in both February 2020 and April 2022.

You can get 11/2 on him scoring any time or 7/5 on him registering a goal or assist.

For the visitors only Lionel Messi (9) and Karim Benzema (7) have been directly involved in more Champions League goals against City than Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo with five each.

Vinicius Jr has two goals and three assists, while Rodrygo has four goals and one assist against City, and they have both been in good form in the competition so far.

Ballon d’Or runner-up Vinicius has scored 17 times this season, with seven coming in the Champions League, while Rodrygo has 13 including four in his last two Champions League matches.

The fact that City don’t have Kyle Walker to keep Vinicius quiet means I am going to back him to be on target. You can get 7/1 on him scoring first, 15/2 to score last or 2/1 to score at any time.

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