Lewis Jones on the Champions League final: Back Hakan Calhanoglu and Vitinha to fire from range at 16/1 | OneFootball

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The Champions League final is dripping with betting opportunities across Betfair's betting estate.

From the traditional markets to the props markets, there is value to be had if you can pick your battles shrewdly. And an area of interest in that regard comes in the Match Stat specials on the Betfair Sportsbook, where Inter Milan's Hakan Çalhanoğlu and PSG's Vitinha are a cracking bet at 16/1 to both have a shot on target from outside the box.

This really is a golden chunk of value to take advantage of. Just the feel of the bet and that price being dangled sounds like a big price and when you run the numbers from a basic maths perspective, it most certainly is a big price.

Vitinha has played 51 games this season and he's had 41 shots from outside the box, so almost one a game with 13 of those hitting the target - that's about a 25 per cent strike which equates to an implied probability of a 3/1 chance.

Meanwhile, Çalhanoğlu has played 46 games this season and had 56 shots from outside the box with 14 of those on target. The Turkish midfielder therefore is working a better strike rate than Vitinha, around 30 per cent when it comes to shots on target from outside the box which equates to about a 9/4 shot in implied probability. He's on free-kicks too which increases that percentage slightly.

So, to my workings, we're doubling up two prices which if you did through a Bet Builder you'd get around 8/1 but we're getting 16/1 here on the Sportsbook.

That equates to about a five per cent edge on the true price. If you're backing that consistently over the long-term you'd be the next Tony Bloom, so it really is a great angle to exploit.

Play the cards right and go under

The last 15 Champions League finals have produced an average of just 3.9 yellow cards per game, and there's only been one red card in that time. Anyone? Juan Cuadrado in 2017 for Juventus vs Real Madrid. Gold star if you got that one.

PSG are a very low card team in terms of their output. Across all competitions their total match cards per game is just 2.8 cards this season. In the Champions League they are only averaging 8.8 fouls committed per 90, which is the third lowest of any team. Luis Enrique has built a clean team.

The numbers are appealing for backing the under card line but the market is aligned with this theory. Under 3.5 cards is trading at 1/1 on the Betfair Sportsbook so the market is only expecting a low card affair, which is disappointing as I was hoping to have a really confident play on the unders. Unfortunately, the prices are right.

But that shouldn't put punters off having a swing at something under card related. I've decided to take the approach of if you're going to go low, go very low and just back the bigger prices on the under lines.

There is enough evidence in big occasions of the card count going very low in PSG games.

Both games against Aston Villa in the quarter finals, saw the card count register at just one card. There were just two cards shown in both last-16 legs against Liverpool and two shown in the 4-2 win over Manchester City in the group stage.

And looking at previous Champions League finals, three of the last seven showpieces have seen punters backing the under 1.5 cards line. Interestingly all of them involved Liverpool under Jurgen Klopp against Spurs and twice vs Real Madrid.