La Liga Tips: Back 8/1 cards double in Basque derby between Athletic and Real Sociedad | OneFootball

Spanish LaLiga

As always, the Basque derby will be played with extreme intensity

La Liga returns following the international break, and Jamie Kemp is back to run the rule over three weekend fixtures, headlined by Sunday night's Basque derby...

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Celta Vigo v Barcelona - Sat, 20:00

Undoubtedly the purest footballing fixture of the weekend in La Liga, Celta Vigo's game against Barcelona promises to be an entertaining one. These teams usually gives us an exciting watch in normal circumstances, but the positive vibes around both sides at the moment ought to almost guarantee that.

The key element here is that Celta Vigo won't cower in the face of Barcelona. They might lose - in fact, it's pretty likely they will lose - but they'll try to play the football they always do and make Hansi Flick's side have to run as often as they can. Their impressive coach Claudio Giraldez is not in the business of going after results by any means; he wants to compete in a specific way, and that'll mean being brave with the ball.

Of course, the risks of doing so are pretty clear. Barcelona have the most feared press in all of LaLiga, and their mentality in facing a team who try to build from the back will be to double down even more. Indeed, the general theme of this game is that Barcelona are excellent in possession and without it. Celta, meanwhile, are fragile on the defensive end for as much as they impress with their use of the ball.

By the measure of expected goals, Celta have the seventh-best attack in La Liga this term (18.4), but their xG difference when factoring in defensive performance puts them only just about in the green (+2.7). As for Barcelona, their xG difference this term is a mammoth +15.8 - they've been by far the best team in the division so far.

I like Celta's chances of scoring in this game, just due to their attacking approach and how they rarely look short of rhythm on that end. Iago Aspas usually comes to the party against Barcelona too - he's scored 11 goals in 19 games against them in La Liga. As for whether they can do enough to get a result, that is a different matter against an opponent this strong.

Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano - Sun, 15:15

Sunday's game at the Ramon-Sanchez Pizjuan is one that draws some pretty clear stylistic lines. Sevilla are in the midst of a possession revolution under Garcia Pimienta, while Inigo Perez's Rayo are one of the most co-ordinated pressing sides in the division. Indeed, it's probable that both managers will get the game they want here; Sevilla with the ball, Rayo with the chances to win it back and do damage.

As for the home side, it's worth referencing the precarious situation currently surrounding the club. Their choice to bring Garcia Pimienta in during the summer was clearly a long-term bet - based around changing the style and becoming more adept in possession - but the process is not going smoothly. Sevilla seem to take a step forward and then move two back, and they come into this match having lost their last two.

The Ramon-Sanchez Pizjuan is a great place to play football when things are going well, but it can be almightily difficult when things aren't going so smoothly - especially in a team who are trying to commit to and develop a new way of playing football. At a time like this, Rayo Vallecano don't seem like a good opponent for Sevilla to have to welcome.

Rayo have only lost two of their last eight games in La Liga, and their defeat to Las Palmas last time out can be firmly filed as a freak result. Inigo Perez's side had 34 shots in the game (2.5 xG) and only conceded 11 in return (0.9 xG), yet managed to lose 3-1 and not score with any of their own shots (their only goal was an own goal).

The fact is, Rayo are competitive and are very clear on how they want to play. Though Sunday's game should suit both styles, I see Sevilla having a hard time carrying out their own intentions, while the visitors go about making it as uncomfortable as possible for them.

These teams have an almost identical xG in La Liga this season (14.4 for Rayo, 14.8 for Sevilla), but it is Rayo who have the upper hand on the defensive side (14.3 versus 18). I'll go with the visitors to neutralise the game into a draw that'll suit them much more than Sevilla.

Athletic Bilbao v Real Sociedad - Sun, 20:00

The premium fixture of the weekend in La Liga - as their primetime slot tells us - comes in the form of the Basque derby. In recent years, Athletic and Real Sociedad have continually flipped between the ascendant force in that part of the country, but it's a game that has always brought intense competition. It seems like neither can stay on top for too long.

Backing the home side in the derby holds plenty of logic, not only in this fixture but for those that happen all over the world. Indeed, it's been a reality of this fixture in recent years that the away side have found it difficult to compete on the road. Across the last 11 times these teams have faced in La Liga, only once has the winner come from the away side (Athletic 0-1 Real Sociedad in December 2020).

Both of these teams play an incredibly hostile style of football, which gets magnified especially when playing on home soil. San Mames, for its part, is one of the hardest places to play in all of Europe when the crowd is up and Athletic players are flying around the pitch. Ernesto Valverde's side seem like they've got 12 players out there at times.

Regardless of the result, the one thing you can be sure about in this fixture is the intensity. As mentioned, these two teams go all-in when it comes to competing in their individual duels and trying to disrupt the opposition as much as possible. Add in a thumping soundtrack from the supporters at San Mames, and I'm drawn to cards with this one.

Immediately, Nico Williams versus Jon Aramburu comes to mind. Athletic attack plenty down their left side through Williams, while Aramburu is a feisty competitor. He's been booked more often (4) than any other Real Sociedad player in La Liga this term, and averages just under two fouls per 90 in the process (1.9).

I'll also throw in a card for teammate Brais Mendez. The midfield will be a battleground here, and he's been booked in three of his four appearances in La Liga.

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