Jones Knows Premier League Notebook: Time to back Wolves for relegation? | OneFootball

English Premier League

Wolves boss Gary O'Neil

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - had his readers swimming in profit after Cole Palmer was fouled four times at Manchester United. What has his eagle betting eye spotted this week?

Fixture list is easing but aren't Wolves just plain bad?

Wolves have won one of their last 20 Premier League games, taking eight points from a possible 60 on the table. That's over a half a season of football.

If they continue on this points-per-game ratio we're not just talking about relegation, we're talking relegation with a whimper.

Gary O'Neil was given the displeasure of having to hear the ominous chants of "you don't know what you're doing" from the home fans as they turned on their manager for the first time. It's very hard to come back from that although O'Neil's changes did help Wolves to switch the momentum of their eventual 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace.

But on the whole it was another flat and defensively ropey performance from O'Neil's men who shipped 2.51 worth of expected goals to an Eberechi Eze-less Palace. Very alarming.

So why are Wolves still 2.68 on the Betfair Exchange to suffer relegation? It's surely too big.

They are the fourth favourites for the drop, longer in the betting than Southampton at 1.29, Ipswich at 1.49 and Leicester at 1.88. One of the main reasons is the ease in difficulty of their fixture list which looms on the horizon.

Of their next eight fixtures, seven of them come against teams in the bottom eight, including all of Southampton, Ipswich and Leicester.

Having a run of kind fixtures is all well and good but with confidence low and a home crowd on the turn, winning those games is going to prove a tougher ask that perhaps what the outright relegation odds imply.

I'd be backer at that 2.68 rather than a layer that is for sure.

Another Chelsea fouls angle to exploit

Finding value in the fouls markets with Betfair has become a big part of my punting armoury.

The profit locked in thanks to Cole Palmer's increased fouls won data this season is a good example of that. There are great avenues of edges to exploit when it comes to fouls won and fouls committed.

Whilst thoroughly enjoying the treatment Manchester United were dishing out to Palmer - they made four fouls on him in the end - it was the aggressive nature of the Chelsea centre-backs that also got my punting juices flowing.

This Chelsea team under Enzo Maresca aren't a high-line team that squeeze the game like Brighton or Tottenham do but they are very keen to engage the opposition up the pitch. That is done by their two centre-backs being happy to try and win the ball when the opposition centre-forward gives them a sniff.

Wesley Fofana and Levi Colwill made five fouls between them at Old Trafford, something which has been a common theme for that pairing in the Premier League. Fofana has made a foul in every appearance this season, making 19 fouls in total. Colwill isn't far behind his partner in crime making 13 fouls.

This willingness to step onto opposition forwards is a key tactic from Maresca but whilst the two defenders in question remain off with their tackle timing, it's certainly a bet to consider when assessing Fofana and Colwill's fouls committed prices.

Chelsea host Arsenal next Sunday and Kai Havertz, the Arsenal starting centre-forward, has a per 90 fouls drawn data of 1.23 this season. There could be plenty of action coming his way.