How can Bayern Munich still finish in top 8 of the Champions League table? | OneFootball

The final set of fixtures of the brand-new UCL League Phase 24/25 is finally upon us. 36 teams, 18 matches  - all to be played simultaneously with the points table constantly changing with every goal. Opta supercomputer has given Bayern Munich a mere 7.9% chance of finishing in the top 8. Winning the game against Slovan Bratislava is the least of their worries as this miracle scenario for the Bavarian club hinges a lot on other results going their way.

After the crushing defeat to Feyenoord last week Bayern are placed 15th on the UCL league phase table with 12 points. The maximum points attainable for them is 15, which would come with a win against Bratislava. Therefore, we will focus only on the clubs with 12, 13, 14, and 15 points, as these are the teams that will impact Bayern’s table positioning on the final matchday.

Bayern must not only win but win big!

Listed below are the teams that currently have 12 points, the same as Bayern Munich.

A fixed assumption going forward would be that Bayern Munich will win their fixture against Slovan Bratislava, and do it in a high-scoring fashion that gives them the highest goal difference among these other teams. Currently, only Dortmund (+8) have a higher goal difference than Bayern (+6).

Now that these four teams are taken care of, let’s take a look at the teams with more that 12 points and how their games must pan out to favour Bayern’s qualification.

Note: We will be considering the following teams as already qualified - Liverpool, Barcelona, and Arsenal. While Arsenal have not mathematically secured a top 8 spot yet, their chance of doing it are more than 99%, so let's assume that it is certain.

Team(s) with 15 Points

Atletico Madrid (vs RB Salzburg away)

AC Milan (vs Dinamo Zagreb away)

Both are favorites to win their respective ties. Let’s give them the three points. So, at this stage five teams have booked a place in the top 8: Liverpool, Barcelona, Arsenal, Atletico Madrid, and AC Milan.

Team(s) with 14 Points

Atalanta (vs Barcelona away)

Atalanta will face the already qualified Barcelona on the final matchday. Bayern will hope that former coach Hansi Flick does them a favor and beats the Italian side. Assuming Barcelona win, Atalanta remain at 14 points and are out of Bayern’s way.

Team(s) with 13 Points

Bayer Leverkusen (vs Starta Prague home)

Unfortunately, there can’t be any wishful thinking here. Xabi Alonso’s team will comfortably win their final fixture.

AS Monaco (vs Inter away)

Inter Milan are clear favourites against Monaco at the San Siro. With 19 points, Inzaghi's team will also comfortably make it in the top 8.

Based on our assumptions so far  - Liverpool, Barcelona, Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, AC Milan, and Bayer Leverkusen are the teams who could take 7 out of 8 spots in the direct qualification bracket. There’s only room for one more team and if Bayern want to to secure it, the following 4 teams must not win their respective matches.

Aston Villa (vs Celtic home)

Feyenoord (vs Lille away)

Lille (vs Feyenoord home)

Brest (vs Real Madrid home)

Real Madrid will probably beat, or at worst draw, against Brest. It finally comes down to Aston Villa vs Celtic and Lille vs Feyenoord.

Villa aren’t in the best form in the Premier League - having recently drawn at home to a poor West Ham side. Bayern would be praying something similar happens in their game against Celtic.

Feyenoord vs Lille could be tricky because both teams currently have 13 points. Due to their insecure position on the table, there’s good reason for both teams to be playing for a win. If they don’t draw, Bayern will hope at least one of the heavyweights - Leverkusen, Milan and Atleti - all of whom we predicted to win their respective match-ups, end up losing it.

To sum it up, here are the necessary conditions for Bayern Munich to secure a top 8 finish -

Should things fortuitously pan out in this way, Bayern Munich would have scrapped a top 8 finish with 15 points on the board, achieving direct qualification to the Round of 16. It's a long shot but we've seen much more inconceivable miracles happen before. All chaos ensues at 7 PM EST on Wednesday.