Burnley v Preston: Back hosts and against goals at 6/5 | OneFootball

EFL Championship

Ryan Deeney previews Burnley v Preston North End in the EFL Championship

Betting tipster Ryan Deeney looks ahead to the early Saturday kick-off as Turf Moor plays hosts to a Lancashire Derby between Burnley and Preston North End.

Football... Only Bettor Podcast - Listen to the best bets here!

Burnley vs Preston North End

Scott Parker finds himself in familiar territory in Championship management, taking on one of the big guns looking for an immediate return to the top flight.

It's going well, picking up 17 points from his first eight matches to with the Clarets in second heading into this weekend, despite enduring a chaotic end to the transfer window.

Paul Heckingbottom has previous in Parker's situation but has taken on a tougher challenge this time around, overseeing Preston North End following the departure of Ryan Lowe.

Their week has been consistent with their inconsistent start to the season, being comfortably beaten by Millwall on the road before hammering Watford in midweek to step out of the bottom three.

Parker's Scott Burnley tightened up

A big part of Burnley's early success has been their defensive record. They have conceded just four goals in their opening eight and they are yet to concede more than once in a league game.

It's not an undeserved record either. They have conceded more than 1xG just three times. Luton on opening day, mostly made up of two chances conceded at 2-0, away at Leeds United, arguably the best side in the division, and Portsmouth, who managed just five shots and whose total xG was mostly made up of one chance.

Burnley have the third best xGA record in the division and best xGA from set-pieces while conceding just 2.9xG in their four home matches. They have conceded just 15 shots in their last three matches.

The lack of shots conceded may be partly down to the quality of opposition but also thanks to a more consistent team selection - 11 players have started at least three of their last four matches.

North End heading south

Preston's victory over Watford was a positive one but also something of an outlier. It was the first time they have managed over 1xG this season and also the first time they have scored more than once.

That it came against one of the poorest defensive outfits in the division means it may not be evidence that their fortunes are going to change. Especially with Heckingbottom still making tweaks to shape and style as he bids to find balance.

It also came at home and they won't have the comfort of Deepdale on Saturday. Their record away from home has been abysmal, collecting one point from four matches and conceding ten goals. They have given up at least 1.6xG in each of those games

Burnley are rightly favourites for this one, even if they aren't the most ruthless of sides in the final third. I've been tempted to back to win to nil at 13/8 but I'm going to suggest Burnley plus under 3.5 goals at 6/5.

Recommended bets

Back Burnley to win and under 3.5 goals @ 9/10