Bundesliga Tips: Another Dortmund disaster incoming | OneFootball

German Bundesliga

Niko Kovac is struggling to turn Dortmund's season around

The Bundesliga is back, and TV commentator Kevin Hatchard has three more betting tips for us.

Borussia Dortmund v Mainz - BVB to fall further behind

Sunday 30 March, 16:30Live on Sky Sports+

It's a measure of how far Borussia Dortmund have fallen that they might fail to qualify for European football entirely. The summer's participation in the Club World Cup will partially mitigate the financial effects of that failure, but the reputational damage would be significant.

After their recent 2-0 loss at RB Leipzig, Dortmund find themselves ten points off the pace in the race for Champions League spots, and they are seven points adrift of the top six. They have won just ten of their 26 league matches, and even though they have reached the quarter-finals of this season's Champions League, they are underdogs against Barcelona.

There was a collective loss of confidence and structure under former coach Nuri Sahin, whose inexperience in the dugout became painfully apparent, and his more seasoned replacement Niko Kovac has struggled to elicit complete performances from his players.

Mainz are almost the opposite. Their coach Bo Henriksen - recently named as Denmark's Coach of the Year - is squeezing every drop of potential out of his squad, and the results have been staggering. Mainz are third in the table, having lost just seven of their league matches, and they have collected 13 points from the last five matchdays.

There are so many Mainz players performing with confidence. Midfielder Nadiem Amiri has won a recall to the Germany set-up, striker Jonathan Burkardt has also won international recognition, while midfield dynamo Paul Nebel is seen as a rising star. Robin Zentner has been one of the league's best keepers this term, Kaishu Sano is a machine in midfield, and box crasher Jae-Sung Lee comes up with important goals (such as his match-winning brace against Bayern).

Even though Mainz are without influential centre-back Dominik Kohr because of suspension, they are more than capable of causing Dortmund some problems here, and the hosts are far too short to take the win at 1.72. Remarkably, BVB have won just two of their last 11 home games in all competitions, so I'll lay them here at odds-on.

Wolfsburg v Heidenheim - BTTS bet a runner

Saturday 29 March, 14:30

Although they have had a significant wobble in the last couple of months, I still maintain that Wolfsburg are a strong outfit under experienced coach Ralph Hasenhüttl. They have strength in defence and speed in attack, and this feels like a group that has the potential to improve if it stays together in the summer.

Despite a run of two wins in nine in the league, all is not lost in the race for Europe, as die Wölfe are just four points off the top six with eight games to go. They are a tough team to beat, with just two league losses across the last 11 matchdays, but they now have to find ways to turn draws into victories.

This weekend they will look to do that against relegation-threatened Heidenheim, who have dropped into the bottom two recently. Frank Schmidt's men qualified for Europe in their first ever Bundesliga campaign, but they have a serious case of second-season syndrome, and have won just five of their 26 matches.

Heidenheim haven't won an away match in the league since September, and they have lost seven of the last ten. They do however usually score - they have found the net in 10 of their last 13 away matches.

A Both Teams To Score wager seems an attractive play here at 1.78. Wolfsburg have seen a BTTS bet land in 14 of their last 18 league matches, and they have managed just three clean sheets in that spell.

Holstein Kiel v Werder Bremen - Storks can rise to the occasion

Saturday 29 March, 14:30

Having secured promotion to the Bundesliga for the first time in their history, Holstein Kiel knew they were in for a rough ride this term, but they have been competitive and are still in the mix for survival. The relegation playoff spot is only three points away, and Kiel have picked up points in six of the last 12 matchdays.

Werder Bremen are sinking into mid-table obscurity, and although a recent 2-0 win at champions Bayer Leverkusen caught the eye, the truth is that the northern giants have lost six of their last seven competitive matches. On the road they have lost five of their last nine, and they just don't quite have the squad depth to maintain a push for Europe.

Kiel have the greater motivation, and their recent 2-2 draw at home to Stuttgart suggests to me that they can pick up at least a point here, so I'll back them Double Chance at .

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