Brighton v Nottingham Forest: Back Seagulls for goals again | OneFootball

English FA Cup

Fabian Hurzeler's Brighton have scored 2+ goals in each of their last seven matches

Brighton have been scoring plenty of goals of late and they can manage at least two more when they host Nottingham Forest in the FA Cup on Saturday, says Andy Schooler...

Betfair Saturday Football Superboost

The FA Cup quarter-finals begin with a London derby at Craven Cottage where Fulham host Crystal Palace and it's a visiting player who takes centre stage in the Betfair Saturday Football Superboost.

Jean-Philippe Mateta has registered 12 shots on target in his last 10 games and Betfair have boosted the price on him having one or more here from 1/2 to 1/1.

Football... Only Bettor. Watch the latest episode now.

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Brighton v Nottingham ForestSaturday 29 March, 17:15Live on BBC One

Nottingham Forest 7 Brighton 0. Make that SEVEN for those of you who remember the vidiprinter.

That was the outcome when these two sides met only last month and it will doubtless get a mention or two on the TV coverage of this FA Cup quarter-final.

Seven-goal humbling an outlier

Yet, that result is very much an outlier in Brighton's recent past.

It is one of just two defeats in the Seagulls' last 16 matches in all competitions and they come into this tie unbeaten in seven. They've scored multiple goals in all seven of those games.

The most recent of those came at Manchester City a fortnight ago where they really should have won, missing some splendid chances to hand the Premier League champions another defeat.

They were certainly able to make the most of City's defensive fragility with Fabian Hurzeler delivering a strong tactical plan.

That wasn't something he managed against Forest in that humbling last month. At the City Ground he essentially played five forward-thinking players and they were duly exposed time and again.

"We wanted to play offensively and, in the end, you could say it was a mistake," the Brighton boss admitted afterwards.

At 32, he may lack major experience but the German looks someone who will learn from his errors.

He'll remain without Tariq Lamptey here but Joel Veltman may be available again to come in at right-back. Lewis Dunk and Solly March are also said to be in contention.

Wood missing; away wobbles

Of course, for all Brighton's good points of late, there is plenty of positivity surrounding the visitors right now, too.

They have seven more points than the Seagulls in this season's Premier League and currently sit third.

However, the concern for them here is the absence of 18-goal striker Chris Wood, who picked up a hip injury on international duty - his New Zealand side booked their place at the World Cup in the week.

It's notable that of the four games Wood hasn't started this season, Forest have won only one - losing to Arsenal and only drawing with Ipswich and Exeter in this competition (albeit they did progress on penalties).

There have also been recent lapses with only three of their last seven in the league won. Three of those have been lost.

What is most notable in recent times is how they've struggled away from home.

Back home goals

Yes, they did beat lowly Ipswich last time out but prior to that they'd gone four without a win on the road and in all five of those matches they conceded 2+ goals, including at League One Exeter.

That's a nod to my favourite bet here.

Rather than backing Brighton, who I do fancy, at 1.86 to win in 90 minutes, preference is to side with Hurzeler's men to score over 1.5 goals at a similar price.

As already highlighted, they've done this in their last seven games, while Forest have shipped 2+ in their last five away matches.

Other options

For those seeking something bigger, consider Anthony Elanga at 6/1 in the anytime assist market.

He has eight in this season's Premier League - only six men have more - and three of them came in that 7-0 win in which he shone.

Wood's absence is something of a blow but it still looks a decent price, especially given Brighton have kept just two clean sheets in their last 10.

Jack Hinshelwood again caught the eye at the Etihad two weeks ago and he's worth considering for shots.

He had two in that City game which he started at right-back, although he could return to midfield here depending on Veltman's fitness.

The youngster had five shots (in 120 minutes) from that position at Newcastle in the last round and the 2+ shots bet here has potential at 6/5, particularly given that he scored in the 2-2 draw in the league fixture here at the Amex in September.

Finally, it would be amiss not to mention cards in an FA Cup tie.

I've made a lot of the low-cards theory in this competition this season and it's certainly borne out with a lot of low make-ups.

This is usually the round where I stop going down the unders route - most of the lower-league sides are now out so games tend to be more competitive and most (three of the four in this round) become like Premier League games with lots of full-strength teams, rotation falling by the wayside.

However, for those prepared to take a risk, 7/2 about under 2.5 cards is still tempting given the choice of referee.

Peter Bankes has been one of the Premier League's more lenient officials this season, while look at his FA Cup record and you'll find 10 of his last 12 matches have seen under 2.5 cards.

However, it is worth noting that this is the first time he's ever taken charge of a tie in the quarter-finals (or later) of the competition.

Opta fact

Since the start of the 2022-23 campaign, only Manchester City (48) and Manchester United (33) have scored more FA Cup goals (first round onwards) than Brighton (30 in 11 games).

More FA Cup: Read Mark O'Haire's verdict on Fulham v Palace!

Recommended bets

1.5pts Brighton over 1.5 goals @ 1.82

Andy Schooler's P/L 2024/25

Staked: 26pts Returned: 29.14pts P/L: +3.14pts

2023/24: +4.54pts

Mike Norman's Build Up Tips: Morgan Gibbs-White to have more Shots than Kaoru Mitoma

How's your luck, as they say! Well for me, when Brighton last faced Nottingham Forest, my luck was well and truly out!

On that day I tipped Kaoru Mitoma to register more shots than Morgan Gibbs-White. Mitoma didn't register a single shot in the first half, was hooked off at half-time, and his Brighton team lost 7-0!  Gibbs-white of course played a pivotal role in the game and won the shots battle convincingly.

Can he win it again when his Nottm Forest team travel to Brighton for a FA Cup quarter final this evening? I'm quietly confident that he can, and at 21/10 for Gibbs-White to win, I'm happy to pay to find out.

Since that 7-0 game both players have started five Premier League games for their respective clubs, and while Mitoma comes out on top in terms of the number of shots on target he's registered, there's absolutely nothing between both players in terms of shots.

But what is interesting is that in Forest's two big games in that five-game spell, Gibbs-White excelled. Away to Newcastle, which is never an easy place to go, the 25-year-old registered a very impressive four shots at goal. A few games later, at home to Manchester City, Gibbs-White repeated the trick, registering four shots at goal.

Looking at the season as a whole, there's very little to split the two players.

Mitoma has registered 47 shots in the Premier League having played a total of 2,324 minutes of football, so on average he registers a shot approximately every 49 minutes. Gibbs-White has registered 43 shots but has only played 2,035 minutes, so he averages a shot once every 47 minutes, two minutes faster than Mitoma.

So given what I've said, that Gibbs-White registers a shot slightly quicker on average than Mitoma, and that he's really come to the fore in some big games for Forest recently, then he's the man I want to side with in the 'to have more shots' market today.

True, Brighton have home advantage, but it makes no sense to me why Mitoma is 8/13 to win this Match Up, while Gibbs-White is 21/10, especially given how so closely matched they are. There's also the opinion that Gibbs-White is fresh having not played a single minute for England recently, and he will be determined to prove that Thomas Tuchel was wrong in not giving him any playing time.