Boxing Day League 1 & 2 Tips: Orient on song and three draws in a massive 39/1 treble | OneFootball

Richie Wellens' Leyton Orient were big winners at Barnsley recently

Alan Dudman is on hand for the Christmas fixtures and provides Boxing Day accas for League One and League Two...

League One

Leg 1: Leyton Orient v Crawley Town, Boxing Day 13:00: Back Orient to win and Over 1.5 Goals @ 1/1

Orient's run of form is leading to some pundits talking about them as outsiders to make the play-offs and the Londoners didn't let their backers down at the weekend with one of the victories of the season - a 0-4 triumph at Barnsley.

While it's important to exercise some caution in these results, Richie Wellens has now guided Orient to just one defeat in 11 and the boss would have been ecstatic with the way his men adapted to the monsoon-like conditions.

Crawley Town have won three of their last four away league games against Leyton Orient (L1), scoring 2+ goals in each of those matches but this term they have tasted defeat six times on the road and they've also shipped 16 goals away, which would be a massive worry with a back of the visitors.

With the hosts in such good form, they warrant their 8/13 price, and we can boost that number to Evens with a play on the win and Over 1.5 Goals - especially with that Crawley leaky defence at the forefront of my mind. Orient's xG metric is also far superior at Brisbane Road at 1.45 against away of just 0.95.

KEY OPTA STAT: Leyton Orient have won five of their last seven Boxing Day league matches (L2), with this their fifth in a row against a team beginning with C (Crawley x2, Colchester, Cambridge, Charlton).

Leg 2: Rotherham United v Wigan Athletic, Boxing Day 15:00: Back Rotherham @ 11/10

It's total football against Steve Evans football, and Rotherham's game-plan should be dead straightforward here against a team who like to dominate possession, although there isn't much to separate the two in terms of their positions with the Latics just a point and a place above Rotherham.

The price of the host to win at 11/10 is too much of a tempter here, as while they lost to Mansfield on Saturday, the Stags have been playing well without results and Rotherham really went for it in the second-half, albeit in very difficult conditions and at one stage had five forwards on the pitch.

Evans tweaked the formation in the second period against Nigel Clough's team and engineered several six versus four moments but lacked a final ball, a killer ball that is so often needed at this level.

The Millers have won the best home defences in the League One from this in the lower-half of the table with just eight conceded, and have won five of their last eight league games on Boxing Day (D1 L2), winning 1-0 against Middlesbrough last year at the New York Stadium.

KEY OPTA STAT: Wigan Athletic are winless in their last seven league games on Boxing Day (D3 L4) since a 2-0 away win at Leeds United.

Leg 3: Huddersfield Town v Stockport County, Boxing Day 15:00: Back BTTS 'Yes' @ 3/4

Huddersfield hit four at Cambridge thanks to another Garry Monk defensive calamity, and while the Terriers are unlikely to be afforded such Christmas gifts, both should be capable of scoring this Boxing Day.

The hosts have a 55% strike-rate for Over 2.5 Goals games and 45% BTTS this term against Stockport's 48% for BTTS.

Callum Marshall, on loan from West Brom at Huddersfield grabbed a brace on Saturday but the standout player judging by reports was Herbie Kane who was the ticker in midfield, keeping everything moving and a player with a deft ball over the top which is so often the Achilles' heel of any defence. He can play in a six or a 10 and he's a key player for Boxing Day.

Stockport have 14 goals away and are in a good run of scoring too with two, two, two and three goals in their last five, and the blank was against Birmingham. Louie Barry is another loan man of note with 15 in 22, so much so that Aston Villa are recalling him in the New Year and will play his final game for the club on New Year's Day but is available for Boxing Day.

Barry has been linked with Leeds too, and he is well capable of playing in the Championship if not higher.

KEY OPTA STAT: Huddersfield Town have won on Boxing Day in each of the last three years, last winning more consecutively on this day between 1914 and 1924 (six in a row).

League Two

The column's heart was skewered by Accrington at the weekend as all they needed to do was score a goal for the 14/1 treble to cop, they failed. However, backing Port Vale to draw came up trumps against Carlisle, and it's got to be the way to go again with Darren Moore's team as the draw can always boost the treble.

I considered the Under 2.5 Goals here and also the BTTS 'No' with both odds-on, but let us be bold and brave, something Moore's side are not at the moment.

Vale have now drawn four of their last five and even the defeat was a 0-1 loss to Walsall - and those games were 0-0, 0-0, 1-1 and 1-1.

Bradford have only conceded seven at home and is an obvious way into another low-scoring game and their xG numbers are Vale 1.26 away and City home at are 1.4 for and 1.02 against, and I wouldn't put anyone playing on correct scores of 0-0 and 1-1 for this.

Moore recently said of Vale's one win in seven run: "We are finding the opposition are changing tactics against us, sitting deep and getting men behind the ball. That's because they need a result as well and sometimes I take that as a compliment because of where we are. But we have to find ways around it," and I can see City doing just that on Boxing Day in sitting deep.

KEY OPTA STAT: Bradford City have failed to win any of their last five league games against Port Vale (D2 L3), failing to score more than once in any of those matches.

Leg 2: Carlisle United v Morecambe, Boxing Day 15:00: Back The Draw @ 13/5

Since Mike 'xG' Williamson left MK for Carlisle he's made the Cumbrians hard to beat, but Boxing Day might be a hard watch with two team propping up the table in 23rd and 24th.

Carlisle have drawn four of their last five had a few illness problems prior to the Port Vale draw on Saturday so it weas credit to them they earned a point, especially after a poor performance the previous week against Chesterfield.

United earned a sixth clean sheet of the season, but the failure to score in a league game for the seventh time means they've scored just 15 goals from 20 games - and that is the joint worst in the division.

For these matches I often think it's a game Williamson dare not lose rather than go and win given the close proximity of Morecambe - who have scored a goal in their last three and have lost four straight and haven't got a shot on target in their last 180 minutes of football.

KEY OPTA STAT: Carlisle United have lost just two of their last 11 Football League games against Morecambe (W4 D5), though lost the last such fixture between these two sides back in March 2021 (3-1).

Leg 3: Walsall v Doncaster Rovers, Boxing Day 15:00: Back The Draw @ 23/10

It's an all-out offensive on the draw treble for Boxing Day and if all three come in, the rewards are great as we are pushing nigh-on 40/1 for the acca in League Two.

Walsall have been a difficult side for me to catch - which is puzzling as they are top and six points clear, but while they delivered with a win for the column recently with a 1-0 win against Barrow, I did put them up in a midweek fixture at home to Fleetwood which they lost 2-6! Figure that out.

They earned a last-gasp equaliser at home earlier this month with a 2-2 against Bromley, a match summed up neatly and amusingly by Mat Sadler as "minging".

Doncaster are handily placed in third and cruised to a 3-1 win at the weekend against Tranmere and a match in which they dominated the shot count on target and possession and one feels Donny could be prime for a push towards the title themselves and are seven points behind Walsall in third (although have played one match more). Their profligacy in front of goal has cost them points this term

With six draws this season for Donny home and away they endured a run of four stalemates from five from early November to early December, and I don't think there is as much between them as the market suggests.

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2024-2025: -1.00pts *Advised to 0.5pt staked unless stated otherwise