Austin FC can contend for MLS Cup if Brandon Vazquez starts finishing | OneFootball

Brandon Vazquez finally got his goal on Saturday and Austin FC finally got their win, a 1-0 victory over a struggling LA Galaxy side. And when the dust finally settled on the rest of the MLS Matchday 9 slate about 10 hours later, the Verde (5W-1D-3L) was still second place in the Western Conference, ahead of Minnesota United on the first tiebreak of total wins.

Even so, after Vazquez also had an earlier penalty kick saved by John McCarthy and settled for one goal on 2.1 expected goals (xG) in terms of chances, there has to be the thought in Austin's camp that what has been a good team so far could potentially be a great one if Vazquez can start taking chances more efficiently.

Vazquez now has only two goals scored from 4.9 total xG per Opta through nine appearances of his first season back in MLS following a brief Liga MX foray with CF Monterrey.

He has yet to score in a game in which he doesn't register at least 1.0 xG in chances, something an in-form striker needs to be able to do at intervals. And if he could even approach an average chance-conversion rate, we just might be talking about Austin as Western Conference favorites right there with the Vancouver Whitecaps.

Plenty of time

Vazquez is a striker whose goal production has lagged slightly behind his xG numbers throughout his career (though not by nearly the rate of his current finishing struggles.)

And at age 26, he is still at an age when many elite strikers are still honing their craft, suggesting there's time to add or find polish.

MLS all-time leading scorer Chris Wondolowski scored an astounding 164 of his 171 league goals at age 27 or later. Former Columbus Crew and Chicago Fire striker Brian McBride did not break through as a regular Premier League starter until he was 33.

Even Zlatan Ibrahimovic -- one of the best pure center forwards in the game's history -- registered more 20-plus-goal league seasons in Europe in his 30s (three) than in his 20s (two). He also scored 52 goals across his age 36 and 37 seasons with the LA Galaxy.

Still reason to question?

That said, until Vazquez stacks consecutive efficient and productive seasons together, his development into that kind of striker isn't a certainty.

His 18-goal 2022 campaign for Cincinnati (on 14.9 xG) represents the only top-flight season so far in which he's produced double-digit goals. Since the 2017 season, the first for which fbref.com has Opta xG data for MLS, Vazquez has 36 goals on 43.7xG.

But the more he plays, the closer he has been to an average finisher in MLS. In his only two full seasons as a regular starter, he had 26 goals on 26.1 xG.

Given the rate he's receiving chances, if Vazquez could reach even average efficiency, he'd be an instant MLS Golden Boot contender. And Austin FC fans could seriously begin talking about MLS Cup aspirations.