UCL preview: AC Milan vs. Liverpool – Team news, opposition insight, stats and more

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·16 septembre 2024

UCL preview: AC Milan vs. Liverpool – Team news, opposition insight, stats and more

AC Milan will begin their 2024-25 Champions League campaign at San Siro on Tuesday night when they take on a very familiar foe in Liverpool.

Milan finally got their first win of the new campaign on Saturday night as they routed newly-promoted Venezia 4-0 which eased some of the pressure on Paulo Fonseca and the team. However, the next two games – which includes Inter in the derby – are seen as much better indicators of progress.

Vidéos OneFootball

Fonseca spoke in his pre-match press conference about the need for his side to be perfect given the level of the opponent, but also the great opportunity that exists to make a statement and follow up a good result.

Game date: Tuesday, September 17 Kick-off time: 21:00 (CEST) Venue: San Siro Referee: Espen Eskas (VAR: Dankert)

Team news

As mentioned above, it is vital that Milan continue the very positive signs that they showed particularly during the opening 45 minutes against Venezia, and they will be backed by what will no doubt be a fantastic San Siro atmosphere as it always is on European nights.

There is no doubting that Liverpool, Real Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen are the ‘big three’ in terms of the teams that the Rossoneri will face in the ‘league phase’ of the UCL, and they will face each team inside the first four games.

Getting points on the board early will be crucial to ensure there is not too much pressure put on the later games against the likes of Slovan Bratislava, Dinamo Zagreb and Red Star, who are – with respect – much more manageable opponents on paper.

In terms of injury news, the most recent negative development is that Ismael Bennacer will miss the rest of 2024 because he has completely torn his calf, doing so on international duty with Algeria. It is possible that he might even need surgery on it.

Alessandro Florenzi (knee) and Marco Sportiello (hand) are the other two long-term absences who also underwent operations on their respective issues. On a positive note, Alvaro Morata returned against Venezia, coming off the bench after recovering from a muscle issue.

The latest media reports are suggesting that Fonseca will make two changes to the starting line-up that beat Venezia on Saturday, with Fikayo Tomori and Morata the ones coming into the side.

Mike Maignan should keep his place in goal with Emerson Royal and Theo Hernandez the full-backs, then Tomori coming back in to partner Strahinja Pavlovic in the centre-back department.

The midfield three should again be Youssouf Fofana, Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Tijjani Reijnders, but what remains to be seen is who players further forward out of the latter two.

The wingers are almost certain to be Christian Pulisic on the right and Rafael Leao on the left, then Morata leading the line with Abraham dropping to the bench.

Predicted Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Emerson, Tomori, Pavlovic, Theo Hernandez; Reijnders, Fofana; Pulisic, Loftus-Cheek, Leao; Morata.

The opponents

We spoke to David Lynch who covers every aspect of Liverpool – now for his own Substack but previously for the official LFC site, the Sunday Mirror, Evening Standard and Goal – to get his thoughts ahead of the game.

It has been a summer of big change for Liverpool – just how profoundly was Jurgen Klopp’s exit felt?

“Extremely profoundly, no question about that. We’re talking about the loss of a manager who is rightly considered a modern equivalent of Bill Shankly given the job he did in restoring modern Liverpool to greatness.

“The club was in the doldrums when Klopp arrived and yet went on to win every trophy available all while spending much less than the likes of Manchester City.

“He also combined that with completely understanding the club, the city and its people. Losing an iconic and much-loved figure like that after eight-and-a-half years was always going to be difficult.”

What was your reaction to the hiring of Arne Slot, and that of the fanbase in general?

“If I’m honest, I think there were many who were underwhelmed initially. Xabi Alonso’s incredible achievements last season as well as his emotional ties with Liverpool meant he was the favoured candidate of many fans, and the supporters did a good job of talking themselves into Ruben Amorim once those links arose.

“But the news that it would be Slot kind of came out of nowhere, and so I wouldn’t say there was a huge wave of excitement regarding his appointment. That said, things seemed to change after an impressive pre-season in terms of results and performances.”

How have things been under Slot thus far? Are you happy with what you have seen, especially in the hammering of Manchester United?

“Up until Saturday it had been pretty flawless! Liverpool have looked really solid defensively and were majorly impressive in picking apart Ipswich, Brentford and then Manchester United prior to the international break.

“I’d also say winning at Old Trafford in your third game in charge is a decent way of getting supporters on side. But then the defeat to Nottingham Forest happened and, inevitably, some doubts have crept in.

“The question now is whether that was just a bad day at the office or if Slot is going to have an issue breaking down those tough Premier League low blocks. We’ll have to wait and see.”

Image: Football365

What was your reaction to the Champions League draw and more specifically discovering you would face Milan again?

“I’d say there was excitement among supporters. You always want to have big games to look forward to and you don’t need me to tell you that Milan are a giant of European football.

“Also, every time Liverpool have faced Inter or Milan in recent years it has been thought to be their last chance to visit the San Siro, but they keep getting another opportunity to go there!

“Maybe this won’t even be the last time but, if it is, I’m sure fans will want to relish every moment of the visit.”

Are there any injuries/other selection problems? What is the starting line-up likely to be?

“Liverpool are doing pretty well in terms of injuries compared to the last couple of seasons, with Harvey Elliott the only player missing at the moment.

“The only other question mark is whether Federico Chiesa will be ready to feature in the squad having missed out against both Manchester United and Nottingham Forest as he builds up his fitness.”

Predicted Liverpool XI (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Salah, Szoboszlai, Diaz; Jota.

Head to head

Milan have played Liverpool four times in their history, meaning that they have rather surprisingly faced four other English sides more despite the history in this particular fixture.

Two of the games need no introduction: the 3-3 draw in the 2005 Champions League final in Istanbul which Liverpool won on penalties after coming from three goals down, and the revenge of Athens two years later as the Rossoneri won 2-1 to lift their seventh European cup.

The most recent meetings came in the UCL group stage during the 2021-22 season, the one in which Milan won the Scudetto. Stefano Pioli’s side had the Reds on the ropes at Anfield as Ante Rebic and Brahim Diaz established a 2-1 lead, but Salah and Jordan Henderson engineered a second-half comeback and it finished 3-2.

In the return game at San Siro which closed out the group, the Diavolo needed a win to keep their last 16 hopes alive. Tomori’s header started things off perfectly, but goals from Salah and Divock Origi – now a Milan outcast – saw Liverpool come from behind to win and condemn their hosts to bottom of the group.

Key facts and stats

➤ This will be the fifth meeting between Milan and Liverpool in European competition, with half of their previous clashes coming in the UEFA Champions League final (2/4) – 2004-05 (won by Liverpool on penalties) and 2006-07 (won 2-1 by Milan).

➤ Liverpool have won all three of their UEFA Champions League games at the Giuseppe Meazza stadium, winning 1-0 in 2008 and 2-0 in 2022 against Internazionale, and 2-1 against Milan in 2021. The Reds are the only team to play there more than once as a visiting side in the competition while maintaining a 100% record.

➤ Liverpool have won four of their last five away games against Italian sides in European competition (L1), with all five of those coming since 2020. Prior to this, the Reds had only won three of their first 14 such matches away to Italian opposition (D3 L8).

➤ Milan are unbeaten in their last four games against English sides in the UEFA Champions League (W2 D2), with each of those coming across the previous two seasons (v Spurs and Newcastle). They’ve never previously managed to avoid defeat in five consecutive games against English opponents in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League.

➤ In taking charge of Milan, Paulo Fonseca will be just the second Portuguese to manage an Italian club in the UEFA Champions League, after José Mourinho with Internazionale (2008-2010).

➤ Liverpool manager Arne Slot has lost all three of his away games in the UEFA Champions League, with each of those coming in the group stage with Feyenoord last season (2-3 v Atlético Madrid, 0-1 v Lazio and 1-2 v Celtic). Despite that, Slot’s Feyenoord had the second-best shot differential away from home in last season’s group stage (+19 – 48 for, 29 against), while only Man City (24) faced fewer shots on the road.

Ones to watch

For Milan it feels like a large part of the outcome of the game will stem from how solid they are at the back and how the star players perform. Theo and Leao looked back to full confidence during Saturday’s win but the challenge now is to turn that into a string of good results.

This will be a big test for Pavlovic, Royal and Fofana after their summer arrivals, while Reijnders’ role will be interesting to watch and more specifically whether he plays further forward again or tries to create from deeper. Pulisic has four goal contributions in four games, so he is in red-hot form.

David gave us some more insight on Liverpool: “The usual suspects have been brilliant, of course: Virgil van Dijk, Mohamed Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold are always going to be key to how Liverpool play.

“But it’s Ryan Gravenberch who has perhaps been the surprise package so far. He is really thriving in a deep-lying midfield role and is one of the reasons the team has looked so difficult to play through.

“If he and Alexis Mac Allister continue their good work together on Tuesday then it will give Liverpool the platform from which to win the game.”

Prediction

It feels obvious to predict that there will be goals in this one, given that Milan have scored nine in four games this season and Liverpool have plenty of attacking talent. A draw would not be the end of the world for both teams, and it could end up being a classic early in the league phase.

Milan 2-2 Liverpool