Tuesday Football Tips: Card prices make appeal in World Cup qualifier | OneFootball

Serbia v AndorraTuesday 10 June, 1945

I used to love finding card angles in this sort of international fixture - ie, one not many people had their eye on, including the layers.

As more markets opened up - shots, fouls etc - I drifted away from the cards a bit but this looks a great opportunity to return given these are two of the narkiest teams in Europe.

OK, I accept that the game may be too one-sided to get feisty - Andorra's qualifier with England on Saturday did not see a card at all - but there are reasons to suggest it will be closer than the odds suggest (more on that later).

Leg 1: Andorra over 2.5 cards

In any case, the England game was very much an outlier when it comes to Andorran cards - they've seen at least two cards in 13 of their last 17 competitive internationals with their propensity to receive them going back way further than that.

However, it's the bigger line of over 2.5 cards which makes greater appeal given that is priced up as a 5/2 shot. It's hit in 10 of those 17 games.

The referee, Azerbaijan's Aliyar Aghayev, looks a decent appointment, too.

He's shown 4+ cards in 14 of his last 16 UEFA club matches and produced seven earlier this season in a Nations League game, plus four in a friendly only last week.

Leg 2: Under 3.5 goals

I'm going to double that up with under 3.5 goals in the game.

While England were widely criticised for their performance at the weekend, some credit is due to Andorra, who defended well and restricted them to few chances in the Barcelona heat.

With similar high temperatures currently holding sway in Serbia, another slow-paced affair could unfold here and the hosts have been in something of a slump of late, meaning any sort of win will likely suit them.

Their goalless draw with Albania on Saturday means they've now won just two of their last 12 games. Eleven of those 12 have seen under 2.5 goals.

Yes, the level of opposition in those matches was stronger than here but to mitigate that, let's play the 3.5 line.

Fourteen of Andorra's last 15 matches have landed this bet (European champions Spain being the fly in the ointment) and while some will point out several of those games have been against fellow minnows, it's worth mentioning that nine of their 10 Euro 2024 qualifiers also went under the 3.5 mark.

9/2.

Leg 3: Serbia over 1.5 cards (2nd bet only)

I'll put two thirds of the stake on that but will also go for something bigger by adding Serbia cards into the mix, namely over 1.5 of them.

This has occurred in 12 of their last 13 internationals and, again, there's also a longer-term trend.

I accept the theory that a comfortable win could quell tempers but, at the same time, if Andorra do come out kicking, Serbia are exactly the sort of side who will look to respond.

14/1.