The structure of second major summer transfer deal tells us what to expect with other signings | OneFootball

News on Tuesday night that Newcastle United have reached agreement with Southampton on the transfer of Aaron Ramsdale.

I think it is a really good signing but it was the structure of the deal that I found at least as interesting.

It was (as is usually the case) the ever reliable David Ornstein of The Athletic who broke this Newcastle United transfer story and this is what he stated:

‘Newcastle United have reached an agreement with Southampton to sign goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale.

Permission has been granted for the England international to travel for medical and finalise the transfer, which is a loan that includes a sizable fee and option to buy.’

These are the previous permanent moves so far for Aaron Ramsdale:

January 2017 – Eddie Howe paid £800,000 to take a then 18 year old Ramsdale from Sheffield United to Bournemouth.

August 2020 – Eddie Howe sold Aaron Ramsdale back to Sheffield United for £18.5m.

August 2021 – Arsenal paid Sheffield United £30m for the goalkeeper.

August 2024 – Southampton paid £25m for Aaron Ramsdale.

Aaron Ramsdale played all the way up through the various age levels for England and currently has five appearances at senior level.

David Ornstein said that the deal agreed between Newcastle United and Southampton is a ‘loan that includes a sizable fee and option to buy.’

So why have Newcastle United insisted on this kind of deal structure rather than a straight immediate buy? After all, they were going to simply buy James Trafford from Burnley, not insisting on this kind of loan and option to buy.

I think Newcastle United have taken advantage of Southampton needing to move on what may well be their top earner, with relegation creating a financial pinch. So, Newcastle able to get this advantageous deal.

It feels to me very much like summer 2023 ahead of the last Champions League campaign, when Newcastle United signed Lewis Hall.

Easy to forget that summer 2023 saw Newcastle commit to around £168m of transfers, with the final amounts to be paid for players breaking down as Tonali £55m, Minteh £7m, Livramento £40m, Barnes £38m and Hall £28m.

However, at the time it was made clear by Eddie Howe that Lewis Hall was a bonus signing and one that they had only been able to do because Chelsea agreed it would be a loan for a year and then a £28m permanent deal in the next financial year after 30 June 2024.

Newcastle United are now in a far stronger financial/PSR position than summer 2023. No need to do this loan and buy in a year’s time type of deal for Aaron Ramsdale. As the offers for the likes of Ekitike, Trafford and Pedro have shown (and the capture of £55m Elanga), Newcastle United have a lot of PSR flexibility to spend serious money this summer.

My assumption is that the option to buy Aaron Ramsdale will in reality be one where they are definitely committed to buying the keeper in July 2026, the next financial year. So why didn’t they just pay the £20m or so now?

Liverpool fans would no doubt love to believe that it is because Newcastle United can’t afford a permanent Ramsdale deal now due to PSR issues, that this is ‘proof’ NUFC need to sell Alexander Isak to be able to afford other new signings. This is nonsense, committing to buying no new first team contenders the previous three transfer windows and the sales of Anderson, Kelly, Almiron and Minteh have put United in a very strong position with PSR. Even more so that the big loss making seasons of 2021/22 and 2022/23 no longer form part of the three year PSR calculation we are currently in, covering 2023/24, 2024/25 and 2025/26.

Pushing back paying that permanent fee for Aaron Ramsdale to the 2026/27 season, tells me that Newcastle United are doing that to absolutely maximise their spending power in this current window. Yes NUFC have missed out on a number of targets BUT I am absolutely sure we will still be bringing in a number of other signings for serious money, on top of Elanga and Ramsdale coming in.

As for Alexander Isak, I honestly think that the structure of this deal to bring in Aaron Ramsdale also suggests strongly that we could see our striker staying for the 2025/26 season.

Newcastle United CAN afford to keep Isak and all of our other key players AND spend serious money (at least up to £200m in my opinion) this summer.

If a huge Alexander Isak sale was in the offing, with all of the extra spending power that would bring, on top of already Newcastle United able to spend £200m this summer as it is (without selling Isak), I simply don’t see why Newcastle would be messing around and not paying the £20m or so for Aaron Ramsdale now, instead of this loan initially and pay the permanent fee in July 2026.