The most clinical finishers in Europe in 2023-24: Kane, Bellingham, Guirassy… | OneFootball

The likes of Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe are up there with the top goalscorers in European football this season, but that’s more to do with the volume of chances they get as opposed to how clinical they are with their finishing.

We’ve taken a closer look into the underlying data that tells us which players across Europe’s top five leagues – Bundesliga, Ligue 1, La Liga, Serie A & Premier League – have been the most clinical finishers.

Here are the 10 players across Europe’s major leagues that have most overperformed their rate of expected goals (xG) in 2023-24 – with statistics via FBref.

10. Hwang Hee-Chan

Wolves’ South Korea international is now just one goal off matching his tally from the last two seasons combined. He’s up to seven Premier League goals in 2023-24 so far, overperforming his xG by a rate of 3.4.

Gary O’Neil’s side have often struggled to turn good performances into results this season, and at times their finishing has let them down. But their No.11 can be trusted to convert chances – on current form, at least.

9. Gerard Moreno

Villarreal have endured an iffy start to the 2023-24 campaign, which has already seen two coaches dispatched with.

But now the Yellow Submarine have proven coach Marcelino in the dugout and will hope to be on the right track again. ‘Comandante’ Jose Luis Morales scored a hat-trick in Marcelino’s first La Liga match in charge, a 3-1 victory over Osasuna, while his strike partner Moreno is just as adept at scoring goals.

The Spain international has a better than one-in-two strike rate since he joined Villarreal in 2018. Despite his club’s struggles this season, his standards have not slipped when fit and available – with eight goals scored from just 4.6xG.

8. Aleksandr Golovin

The Russian striker has scored five goals from just 19 shots (nine on target) in Ligue 1 this season. His total expected goals stand at just 1.5xG.

A title challenge from Monaco is unlikely this season, but they sit third in the table and ought to be able to challenge for Champions League qualification with Golovin, Wissam Ben Yedder, Folarin Balogun and Takumi Minamino a healthy range of forward options.

7. Eren Dinkci

A relatively lesser-known name, 21-year-old winger Dinkci has scored five goals for Bundesliga minnows Heidenheim so far this season. To have done so from just 1.3xG – ranking him about 400th of all players in Europe’s leagues for expected goals – is pretty good going.

The youngster is on loan from Werder Bremen and will be worth keeping an eye on.

6. Andrea Colpani

Monza winger Colpani has scored six Serie A goals from 2.1xG, overperforming at a rate of 3.9.

Inter, Juventus and Milan are all reportedly impressed with the 24-year-old, who has caught the eye with some spectacular strikes this season.

5. Alex Grimaldo

The La Masia academy graduate joined Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen from Benfica, and he’s undoubtedly proven one of the signings of the season.

Grimaldo’s performances for the Bundesliga table-topper have earned him long-overdue Spain call-ups, and in this kind of form he looks a decent bet to start at Euro 2024 for La Roja.

He’s scored seven goals (from just 1.6xG!) and notched a further four assists in 12 appearances. Him and Jeremie Frimpong on the opposite flank have ripped apart Bundesliga defences in 2023-24 so far.

4. Lautaro Martinez

The Argentinian World Cup winner has given serious competition to Victor Osimhen’s claim to be Serie A’s best striker.

Martinez is playing the best football of his career right now. He’s proven he can be Inter’s main man up top, having notched 13 goals from 13 Serie A appearances, overperforming his rate of expected goals by 5.4.

The highlight of his season so far came with a substitute appearance against Salernitana. He appeared off the bench in the second half, played 36 minutes, and scored all four of Inter’s goals in a 4-0 win – coming from just four attempts and 1.5xG.

3. Jude Bellingham

Stats nerds will tell you all about regression to the mean and that Bellingham can’t possibly keep up this kind of output throughout the season.

There’s probably something in that, given that the 20-year-old is on to score 30+ La Liga goals if he can maintain this rate. He’s scored 11 goals from just 30 shots, 18 (60%) of which have been on target, totting up to just 5.3xG.

But then again, he just keeps scoring every week – so maybe he can? England should have no trouble converting chances at Euro 2024, especially given Bellingham’s set to line up alongside…

2. Harry Kane

The England captain has been ridiculous at Bayern this season. He’s already scored more goals in the Bundesliga than any player managed in the entirety of last season.

It’s his debut season in Germany and he’s on track to smash the records set by Gerd Muller and Robert Lewandowski.

Kane is the early frontrunner for the European Golden Shoe in 2023-24, with 18 goals scored. He’s done so from 12.2xG, a number only bettered by Haaland across Europe’s major leagues. Frequent chances and deadly finishing is an unstoppable combination.

1. Serhou Guirassy

Only Kane has scored more goals in Europe’s big five leagues than Guirassy, who has notched 15 goals from just 8.7xG.

Guirassy reportedly has a €17.5million release clause, and Newcastle United are reportedly among the club’s eyeing up a potential January transfer.

Time will tell whether the striker – who is 27, who has tended to average 10 league goals a season prior to this season – has suddenly blossomed into an elite-level forward, or whether this is just the hottest of hot streaks that’s destined not to last.

Some might remember Krzysztof Piatek, who was ridiculously prolific for Genoa and Milan in 2018-19, but failed to keep it up. Nowadays the Polish striker is turning out for Istanbul Basaksehir.