The Liverpool transfer gamble that could jeopardise Premier League title defence | OneFootball

Virgil van Dijk’s future was shrouded in uncertainty when a Liverpool centre-back signed a new, long-term contract. Not the captain, but the man who could have been shaping up as his successor. It was Jarell Quansah and it was as recently as October.

Even for clubs that plans as well as Liverpool, things can change. Now Quansah is Bayer Leverkusen’s record signing. Liverpool rebuffed interest in him last summer but, a year on, accepted a bid of £30m that, given add-ons, may well rise to £35m. Quansah may yet end up as Liverpool’s future – they inserted a buy-back clause – but it is less likely now.

The numbers reflect a reason to sell. Liverpool have a profitable business in cashing in on those they have unearthed or polished up. They have made £50m this summer on Quansah, Caoimhin Kelleher, an out-of-contract Trent Alexander-Arnold and more than £60m last year from Sepp van den Berg, Fabio Carvalho and Bobby Clark. Quansah’s fee can look excessive for a player who was a first-team regular for a few months or justified by his excellence last season and in England’s victorious Under-21 Championship.

But it doesn’t necessarily fund a replacement of the calibre Liverpool could require. For now, they are down to three senior centre-backs. They can cite Wataru Endo and Ryan Gravenberch’s ability to drop into the back four – indeed, when chasing a game, Arne Slot shows a willingness to put Gravenberch alongside Van Dijk in a Dutch double act of footballing centre-backs – but it does not mean either midfielder is equipped to start 27 games in defence, as Quansah did in 2023-24.

They have a recent example of the danger of entering a season with only three senior central defenders. They did so in 2020-21, after opting not to replace Dejan Lovren. Van Dijk, Joel Matip and the sadly injury-prone Joe Gomez were all ruled out for the campaign. The midfielders Fabinho and Jordan Henderson took turns at the back before finally the rookies Nat Phillips and Rhys Williams dragged Liverpool into the Champions League.

For now, their squad is imbalanced: with three specialist left-backs, after Milos Kerkez’s arrival, but a mere three central defenders. Of their five full-backs, the only one who even looks like an emergency centre-back is Andy Robertson, who could leave.

So there is a need for a signing. There is also the reality that Liverpool have a profile for the sort of defender they would like and a limited budget. They have already spent £170m this summer – which could increase with add-ons – on Florian Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong and Kerkez. The £116m cost of Wirtz was only possible because of the way Liverpool saved money by making a transfer-market profit last summer. It is also worth remembering Liverpool made two substantial commitments on the wage bill by re-signing Van Dijk and Mohamed Salah, each among the best-paid players in the world in his position.

Jarell Quansah holds the trophy as he celebrates after his team won the Uefa U21 European Championship final (AFP/Getty)

It is worth stressing because both of the task in replacing Quansah but also because of the backdrop of the exercise in online idiocy that is the expectation Liverpool will somehow buy Alexander Isak and Marc Guehi.

They are a club with a self-sustaining model, not a bottomless pit of money; they are also one who can show a reluctance to spend if they don’t feel a deal is right. When Martin Zubimendi chose to stay at Real Sociedad last summer, they opted not to get another midfielder. They also rarely get involved in auctions: if it is no secret Guehi has other admirers, it is also hard to imagine Liverpool spending, say, £60m on a back-up centre-back. If Konate’s contract, which expires next summer, adds another element to the equation, so does Guehi’s role. He normally operates as a left-sided centre-back. As, of course, does Van Dijk.

Marc Guehi has been linked to Liverpool (The FA via Getty Images)

For now, Liverpool require a third- or fourth-choice centre-back for a reasonable fee. They can nevertheless show a flexibility, advancing money from another summer’s budget, if an exceptional player becomes available; perhaps the 2023 bid of £111m for Moises Caicedo can be seen in that light. But they are often disciplined buyers.

They tend to be fine negotiators when selling, too. If there are several possible departures, with a list topped by Federico Chiesa, Darwin Nunez, Harvey Elliott and either Robertson or Kostas Tsimikas of the band of left-backs, that does not automatically mean they will cash in on all, and at their preferred prices. There are younger players who could go, too, with Ben Doak and Tyler Morton probably offering the potential to be the most profitable, and their departures would not necessitate buying a replacement.

Van Dijk’s cover has been hit by the sale of Quansah (Getty Images)

Should Nunez go, however, there would be a vacancy for another centre forward in the squad just as Quansah’s move to Germany leaves a gap for a centre-back. But if there are reasons to believe they will not sign the much-coveted Guehi, there are even more to realise Isak – not for sale at Newcastle and with a huge valuation – looks an improbable arrival. But the lesson of their recent past is that it is a huge gamble to enter a season with only three centre-backs. It ended Liverpool’s last chance of retaining the title. They should not allow history to repeat itself.