The empires strike back as Premier League enters uncertain new era | OneFootball

It’s a line being uttered by many in the Premier League, that maybe says more than intended. Liverpool, in the specific words of one fearful rival, have “destroyed the market” this summer. Everybody expected the champions to buy from a position of strength, but the thinking was the usual astute signings and maybe one big one. Liverpool have instead gone for real game-changers. And, in the process, maybe changed the Premier League.

They look set to claim the signing that Arsenal long wanted in Alexander Isak. They’ve already beaten Manchester City to the signing of Florian Wirtz, and that less than three years after Jurgen Klopp spoke of three clubs – including City and Isak’s Newcastle United – who can “do what they want financially”.

Maybe, after all the talk of “Moneyball”, this approach is just the “maturation” of an investment fund’s approach to football. Maybe there’s something more going on.

There is certainly a new assurance about Liverpool’s business, at a time of new uncertainty elsewhere.

Because, if you look at the last eight years of the Premier League, the one true certainty was that you had to be almost perfect to beat Pep Guardiola’s City. Now, the “Catalan era” of their Abu Dhabi ownership faces a series of new challenges.

The biggest is something that is now mostly going unsaid, although part of that is because it has absurdly gone on so long that people can’t keep saying the same thing. “The City case” is currently expected to have an outcome in late September or early October. It’s just that we heard the same about February and Easter.

open image in gallery

Manchester City’s ongoing financial case still hangs over Pep Guardiola’s side (PA)

That prospect nevertheless means that a second successive season faces the threat of the table being drastically changed by a regulatory case. City, of course, insist on their innocence.

Even if they are vindicated, there are other challenges. We will see Guardiola take on a task he has never faced in 17 years, which is the rebuilding of a successful team. City’s changes were more gradual over 2019 to 2022. That rebuild also comes at a point where Guardiola, probably the figure that has been the greatest influence on modern tactics, faces sudden questions over whether those tactics are moving beyond him. It is another element that will bring out defiance from the Catalan.

An inexperienced new squad is going to have to rise to that, which brings another variable, as Hugo Viana also succeeds Txiki Begiristain as sporting director. Rayan Cherki almost personifies the debate, since he’s a mercurial talent who brings magic, but doesn’t always guarantee application. This can go either way. It can admittedly go a different way if City respond to Liverpool’s business with the mega signings of Rodrygo and Gianluigi Donnarumma.

As it is, there are more uncertainties about City than their two main recent challengers. Liverpool are the champions, actively trying to go to another level. Arsenal have been fixtures in the top two over the last three seasons, but just need to develop that depth that allows them to go one step further. We know what both are about.

open image in gallery

It is now or never for Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal side in pursuit of the Premier League title (Getty)

Thomas Tuchel has meanwhile argued that the Club World Cup “will have a huge impact” and “give Liverpool and Arsenal a huge advantage”. Victory there may work against a strong Chelsea, and the way they have gradually built a stacked squad.

Some of this could actually come down to different interpretations of Guardiola’s ideology. While Liverpool look to be aiming for more individual brilliance, Arsenal are seeking even greater control. One offers more imagination, the other much more solidity. We then await to see Guardiola’s own team.

As classic as a Liverpool-Arsenal rivalry would look, however, it could also herald a new era. These are the two most prominent US ownerships in the Premier League now, at a point when American capitalists are exerting more influence than ever.

The financial restraints that PSR represent are actually a uniquely European idea, given that former Uefa president Michel Platini initially wanted to recreate stringent French regulation, but agitators increasingly cast its evolution as “American influenced”.

Much of that debate is extremely misplaced, but the current system has still led to a situation where the empires are striking back. If 2024-25 was characterised by many of the Premier League’s best performers coming from the “middle classes”, many of them – like Matheus Cunha and Joao Pedro – have moved to the old “big six”.

Such purchases alone illustrate a reversion to old strategies, as clubs realise proven Premier League experience is worth the extra price.

open image in gallery

Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha are illustrative of the Premier League’s elite performers in the ‘middle class’ moving to the old ‘big six’ clubs this summer (Getty)

Liverpool might offer another solution there, in how they allowed “PSR headroom” to rise over three frugal windows before going big. You only have to look at Manchester United’s spending, even if it casts a different light on redundancies and Jim Ratcliffe’s comments about possibly going bust. Such strategies aren’t something upwardly mobile clubs like Aston Villa can execute to the same degree.

Football really needs to have a more serious discussion about its distribution of wealth and talent – not PSR. If the expectation is consequently that the old powers reassert their positions, there are other uncertainties.

Almost half of the Premier League, at nine clubs, are in Europe. These extended campaigns are going to cause chaos, especially for good sides less used to them like Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, and even Newcastle.

This has been cast as most obviously benefiting Ruben Amorim at Man United, given the precious extra time to coach, but most interesting here might be Brighton. Could this be the season their constant replenishment raises them into the Champions League – especially if there is an extra place up for grabs?

And what of the bottom three? A resurgent Everton can finally look up but Brentford are looking at new realities. Thomas Frank’s quiet assurance is now at Tottenham Hotspur.

Will that be enough to change another trend caused by these wider forces, which is how quickly the promoted three go back down? Sunderland, Leeds United and Burnley will have to really stretch themselves.

open image in gallery

Sunderland enjoyed the excitement of promotion via the play-off final but will now need to buck the trend of newly-promoted clubs going straight back down (PA)

Much of this may be settled by another big theme of the summer, which has been the resurgence of strikers. The season may come down to which of Viktor Gyokeres, Hugo Ekitike, Benjamin Sesko or Joao Pedro settles best in this very expensive game of musical chairs.

No 2025-26 preview can go without respectful acknowledgement of the tragic passing of Diogo Jota. This Liverpool squad are grieving, and it’s impossible to know how they will respond over the long term. It’s also impossible to think of a situation in modern English football comparable to this, where the champions must cope with such profound tragedy.

Discussing deep human grieving in the context of football feels incongruous, and almost in bad taste, but the reality is the game is still going to be played. This is part of that context. The weekend’s fixtures, sadly but beautifully, will see a lot of tributes to Jota.

The fixtures are also, minutes later, going to bring clarity to some of these uncertainties.

The Premier League’s great quality is that it has a remarkable capacity for new storylines. The wonder is whether we’re entering a new era.