Supercomputer predicts Man City's chances of overturning Real Madrid first-leg deficit | OneFootball

Manchester City should be preparing for Wednesday's clash in Madrid with a lead to cling onto, but a familiar collapse in last week's first leg means Pep Guardiola's side have a deficit to make up.

While Madrid were superior for much of the second half at the Etihad, a vintage Guardiola-led City would've never relinquished their 2-1 advantage, gifted to them by a clumsy Dani Ceballos challenge, in such dramatic circumstances.

Their vulnerabilities continue to be laid bare during times of potential resurgence, but their efficient dismantling of Newcastle on Saturday pointed towards a team which can still operate with unerring devastation.

Madrid are far from unbeatable, but there's an undeniable allure which envelops them in this competition. City's task on Wednesday is mammoth, but Guardiola's team have ascended mountainous peaks before.

Here's how Opta's supercomputer rates their chances of pulling off an unlikely comeback.

Supercomputer predicts Man City's chances of overturning Real Madrid first-leg deficit

Opta rates a Man City comeback as unlikely on Wednesday night / Anadolu/GettyImages

Opta's AI-powered computer has provided projections for every Champions League fixture since the start of last season, with every team's probability of victory determined by 10,000 simulations of each fixture.

City must win on Wednesday to advance into the round of 16, with a slender victory likely taking the contest to extra time. Remember, away goals are not in play. Opta rates the Cityzens' chances of victory in 90 minutes at 28.6%, while Madrid have a 49.2% chance of winning on the night and a 78.2% chance of progressing into the round of 16. A draw is enough for the 15-time winners who are aiming to retain their crown.

Guardiola' side advanced into the next phase in just 21.8% of the 10,000 sims.

Opta's bearishness in regards to a City comeback is understandable given their distinct frailties and poor record at the Bernabeu. They've won on just one of their six visits to the Spanish capital, with Kevin De Bruyne running the show in a 2-1 victory back in 2020.

Madrid are thus expected to advance in their mini bracket for the round of 16. The perennial victors will be paired against either Atletico Madrid or Bayer Leverkusen in Friday's draw, so there's potential for two mammoth duels between La Liga and Bundesliga giants in the last 16.

Supercomputer predicts every knockout play-off winner

Despite losing the first leg of their tie, Milan are narrow favourites to advance / Marco Luzzani/GettyImages

City's tie with Real Madrid is one of eight Champions League knockout play-offs which will be concluded this week. Paris Saint-Germain (99.1%) and Borussia Dortmund (97.2%) already have one foot in the round of 16 after coasting to 3-0 victories over Brest and Sporting CP respectively.

Bayern Munich had more difficulty against Celtic, eventually holding on to a 2-1 victory in Glasgow, but are heavy favourites to avoid a shock defeat at the Allianz Arena this week.

While Milan are narrow favourites to overturn a first-leg deficit against Feyenoord, their Italian neighbours Atalanta tumble out of the competition to Club Brugge in more than half of Opta's simulations. Benfica and Juventus are expected to hold on to their first-leg advantages.