Serie A preview: Lecce vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction | OneFootball

In the 28th round of Serie A action, AC Milan are up against Lecce away from home and after three consecutive defeats, they are in dire need of three points.

It has been a tough season for the Rossoneri fans, but the last few weeks have been a new low. As a result of three consecutive defeats, the team is in 9th place and could miss out on European football entirely, which says everything.

Speaking at the press conference earlier today, Sergio Conceicao highlighted that it’s been a very good week of training at Milanello. Given the extra time, he has finally been able to work on some important tactics, which perhaps will make a difference.

Game date: Saturday, March 8 Kick-off time: 18:00 (CET) Venue: Via Del Mare Referee: Daniele Doveri (VAR: Chiffi)

Team news

Conceicao has been able to work with the players for a full week for the first time, more or less, and he sounded very positive about the outcome during the presser. Alessandro Florenzi, who had been absent since July last year due to an ACL tear, has even returned to training.

On the other hand, Ruben Loftus-Cheek remains on the injury list while the likes of Mike Maignan and Strahinja Pavlovic will be suspended. Yunus Musah is the only player at risk of receiving a suspension, one yellow card away.

There have been different reports on the starting eleven for this game, seeing as Conceicao is expected to make quite a few changes. It might not be the maxi-rotation that some thought initially, though, as Theo Hernandez looks set to keep his starting spot on the left.

Malick Thiaw will replace the suspended Pavlovic, teaming up with Matteo Gabbia, while Kyle Walker has fully recovered and thus will start on the left. In midfield, Warren Bondo looks set to get his debut for the club and rather than Youssouf Fofana, he should team up with Yunus Musah in the tandem.

Further up the pitch, Alex Jimenez should be the starting right-winger with Christian Pulisic moving to the left instead, resulting in Rafael Leao on the bench. Tijjani Reijnders will occupy the No.10, which is good news, while there will be a battle between Tammy Abraham and Santiago Gimenez up front.

Riccardo Sottil was initially reported among the starters but it seems he will be on the bench, and the same can be said for Davide Bartesaghi. The latter could have replaced Hernandez but Conceicao hinted that almost all players have been working well in training (evidently including the Frenchman).

Predicted Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Sportiello; Walker, Gabbia, Thiaw, Theo; Bondo, Musah; Jimenez, Reijnders, Pulisic; Abraham/Gimenez.

The opponents

As was expected, it has been a season with ups and downs for Lecce, mostly downs. They parted ways with Luca Gotti in November of last year after achieving just two wins in the opening 12 games. Marco Giampaolo, the former Milan manager, was brought in to salvage the situation.

In 15 league games with the club, the manager has bagged four wins, four draws and seven defeats. It’s not that much better than Gotti, in other words, but at least they have pulled themselves out of the relegation zone with three points to spare.

Of course, they will need to pick up in order to avoid making the drop, as they only have two draws in the last four games. Giampaolo made it clear during his press conference that they must focus on their own issues, as they are very much there, rather than looking at Milan’s form.

Santiago Pierotti, who has four goals and two assists this season, missed the last game due to a minor discomfort but Giampaolo suggested that he will be available tomorrow. Without a doubt, his presence would be a huge boost for the home side.

The likes of Nikola Krstovic, Thórir Jóhann Helgason and Lameck Banda have also recovered and will be at Giampaolo’s disposal tomorrow. In short, the manager will be able to rely on a strong squad and there are thus few excuses against Milan tomorrow, especially given the Rossoneri’s form.

It should be noted that the former Milan player, Ante Rebic, will be on the bench tomorrow and perhaps he will get a cameo as well. It would certainly be typical if he were to find the back of the net, as he did so many times for the Rossoneri.

Predicted Lecce XI (4-3-3): Falcone; Guilbert, Baschirotto, Jean, Gallo; Coulibaly, Pierret, Berisha; Pierotti, Krstovic, Morente.

Head to head

Milan and Lecce have been up against each other 44 times in all competitions, with the Rossoneri prevailing in 26 of these games (including the reverse fixture, 3-0 win). 15 of them ended in draws, while the Via del Mare side only have two wins to their name. In short, there is a clear favourite on paper in this fixture.

Of course, as the key facts below also highlight, Milan are in very poor form and this could perhaps be the perfect opportunity for Lecce to make it three wins against the Rossoneri. They also need the win in the relegation battle, so they will certainly be more determined.

The last time Milan travelled to the Via del Mare, the game finished 2-2 after Stefano Pioli’s side squandered a two-goal lead. It could have been a defeat, but a late goal from Lecce was later disallowed by VAR for a foul in the build-up.

Key facts and stats

➤ AC Milan have lost only two of their 37 games against Lecce in Serie A (W22 D13); among the teams they have faced at least 30 times in the top-flight, only against SPAL (97%) do the Rossoneri post a higher percentage of matches without defeat than against Leece (95%).

➤ Lecce have won only one home game against AC Milan in Serie A (April 2006 under Roberto Rizzo). In addition, at Lecce’s home, the Rossoneri have won the only game in their history in the top-flight after trailing by three goals: from 3-0 to 3-4 in October 2011.

➤ Lecce have not scored in their last four Serie A games and could fail to score five matches in a row in a single Serie A campaign for the first time since April 2023. However, Milan have lost by conceding two or more goals in each of their last three league games and only three times in their history have recorded more defeats in a row in the competition with 2+ goals conceded (the last being a run of five, between March and April 1974).

➤ Only Monza (-22) have a worse points difference than AC Milan after the first 27 games played in Serie A compared to the last edition of the competition: the Rossoneri have won just 41 points in Serie A this season, having accumulated 56 in the first 27 games played in 2023/24, with a negative difference of -15.

➤ AC Milan are averaging 1.52 points per game in Serie A this season. The last time they recorded a lower average in Serie A was in 2015/16, when the Rossoneri finished the season in seventh place, with 57 points from 38 games (exactly 1.50 points per game).

➤ Sérgio Conceição has averaged 1.40 points per game as AC Milan manager in Serie A this season. The previous coach to have averaged less than 1.50 per game with the Rossoneri in Serie A was current Lecce coach Marco Giampaolo (1.29 in 2019/20).

➤ According to the Expected Goals model, Lecce and AC Milan are two of the three teams that have the worst difference between goals scored and xG recorded in Serie A this season: -6.6 for the Salento side (24.6 xG and 18 goals) and -5.2 for the Rossoneri (44.2 xG, 39 goals) – among them Cagliari with -5.9.

➤ AC Milan have collected 16 red cards in all competitions in the last two seasons, at least two more than any other Serie A team in this period (followed by Hellas Verona on 14). Notably, four of these red cards have come in 2025: Yunus Musah against Dinamo Zagreb and Theo Hernández against Feyenoord in the UEFA Champions League, Fikayo Tomori against Empoli and Strahinja Pavlovic in the last round against Lazio in Serie A.

➤ AC Milan are the team with which Ante Rebic has played the most games (100) and scored the most goals (27) in his career in the five major European leagues. Against the Rossoneri, he has recorded one win (in April 2016 with Hellas Verona) and one defeat (in the reverse fixture this season) in two previous Serie A matches, without scoring a goal.

➤ Since his Serie A debut (on 8 February against Empoli), no AC Milan player has completed more dribbles (10, level with Rafael Leão), has won more fouls in the final third (three) and attempted more shots (15) than João Félix in Serie A. Furthermore, excluding defenders, only Youssouf Fofana (15) has regained possession on more occasions than the Portuguese among Milan players during this period (14, level with Yunus Musah and Tijjani Reijnders, but among these three he has played the fewest minutes– 356 minutes).

Ones to watch

Warren Bondo is expected to make his debut for Milan tomorrow so naturally, he’s a player the fans should keep an extra eye on. He impressed many times with Monza but as we all know, it takes a while to get used to a new team.

Up front, it looks like Tammy Abraham will be given the nod ahead of Santiago Gimenez, so it will definitely be interesting to see what he can add to the team. On a good day, as we saw against Roma in the Coppa Italia, he can be very dangerous.

Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images

As for the home side, Federico Baschirotto will be the leader at the back with his impressive physique. While he’s very strong in duels, and quite fast for his size, there are still some vulnerabilities for the Rossoneri to exploit.

Speaking of impressive physique, the same can be said for Nikola Krstovic and Matteo Gabbia, as well as Malick Thiaw, will have to keep a very close eye on him. Aerial duels and runs in behind are likely to be key in that sense.

Prediction

Milan have truly been in terrible form lately and while Lecce haven’t exactly impressed either, they have at least claimed points. The full week of training should play in Conceicao’s favour but at the same time, the atmosphere remains incredibly tense. As such, I believe it could be another draw.

Lecce 1-1 AC Milan