Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Roma – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction | OneFootball

AC Milan will bring the calendar year to a close on Sunday night as they welcome Roma to San Siro for the final game of 2024.

Milan did win their last game before the festive break against Hellas Verona, but it was a far from convincing performance and the team ultimately remain down in eighth place in the table.

As Paulo Fonseca admitted in his pre-match press conference, the pressure is on to generate results and performances, otherwise the season could slip into a deep crisis.

Game date: Sunday, December 29 Kick-off time: 20:45 (CET) Venue: San Siro Referee: Michael Fabbri (VAR: Meraviglia)

Team news

As mentioned, Milan won a very uneventful game away from home against relegation-threatened Verona and it has done very little to ignite enthusiasm. Youssouf Fofana and Tijjani Reijnders did link up very nicely for the only goal, though.

The big issue for Fonseca coming into this game concerns the amount of forwards that are out. Rafael Leao and Noah Okafor will certainly miss the game, as will Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Yunus Musah, while Alessandro Florenzi is still recovering from surgery.

It was speculated in the build-up that Christian Pulisic would be available for Milan’s final game of the year. The Rossoneri squad resumed training on Friday after three days of rest, and the American did an individual session with the hope of getting back on the bench.

However, Fonseca made it clear in the presser he did that the former Chelsea man has sustained an ankle issue during the recovery progress and will not even be in the matchday squad for the game.

Ismael Bennacer trained with the rest of the squad as did Luka Jovic, so both could make their respective returns after surgery against the Giallorossi, even if they too would start the match on the bench.

According to the latest reports, the most likely scenario at the moment is that Alvaro Morata starts up front after recovering from tonsillitis, with Samuel Chukwueze on the right wing, Alex Jimenez pushed up to be left winger and Reijnders in behind.

Fofana and Filippo Terracciano will once again be entrusted as the double pivot in front of a back four including Emerson Royal, Malick Thiaw, Matteo Gabbia and Theo Hernandez. Mike Maignan, of course, will be in goal.

Probable Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Emerson Royal, Gabbia, Thiaw, Theo; Fofana, Terracciano; Chukwueze, Reijnders, Jimenez; Morata.

The opponents

To get the lowdown on Roma amid what has already been quite a chaotic season, we spoke to Samuel Bannister who runs ‘Giallorossi Yorkshire’, a fan site for Romanisti in the north of England.

Roma decided to continue with Daniele De Rossi after his caretaker stint but he was sacked relatively early on in the campaign. Was it the right call, and is there some regret giving him a long-term deal?

“De Rossi did well at first in caretaker charge, winning eight of his first 10 games, but I think the first mistake was announcing he’d be staying in charge before that spell was over.

“It was intended to give a short-term boost, but then results started to dip before the end of last season, and yet the club were already committed, even though he actually hadn’t signed his contract by that point.

“Thus, with some doubts starting to creep in, it didn’t compute that the club then gave him a long-term, three-year contract if they had their hesitations. Yet to sack him four games into the new season, and that aforementioned new contract, really shook things up.

“Much of Roma’s instability this season can be traced back to that point, with the decision widely seen as a mistake, not necessarily because he was an outstanding coach or the right person for the job, but because of how it shocked and unsettled the squad and fanbase.”

Ivan Juric then came in, what was the reaction to that and what didn’t work for him?

“The reaction at the time was mixed, but generally negative. The fanbase were dissatisfied for what had happened to De Rossi, so whoever came in next was set up to struggle to win them over. There had also been whispers of arguably more inspiring replacements, but things developed quickly.

“That said, Juric had recently been a respected mid-table Serie A coach, and not a relegation battler as some critics perceived. Some felt he deserved a chance in a job like this. Maybe if De Rossi had been thanked and let go in the summer and Juric had worked with the squad over pre-season, it might have worked better.

“On paper, he wasn’t as incapable as the ensuing results suggested. But he failed to impose his preferred tactics and there were some embarrassing performances and results, such as losing to Elfsborg in the Europa League and Hellas Verona in Serie A.

“He was fighting a losing battle from fairly early on in the job and struggled to inspire much confidence that he could get out of it. Roma fans had become desensitised to ruthless sackings by this point and it wasn’t a surprise to see him dismissed.”

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Roma favourite Claudio Ranieri returned, is it a case of him being a stabiliser and trying to rescue a season from crisis?

“The name Claudio Ranieri and the word ‘stability’ go hand in hand when it comes to Roma. He took a tempestuous situation – abandoning his well-earned retirement to do so, such is his bond with this club – and has restored a sense of calmness.

“He did the same last time he was in charge in a caretaker role in 2019. Unlike then, this time there is starting to be some faint conversation of him being a contender to remain in charge next season as well if Roma struggle to attract a high-level upgrade, which is nice recognition for him even though I would be surprised at this stage if it unfolds that way.

“Once again, results will have to be judged over the long term, but Ranieri has restored some simplicity in Roma’s approach in the right way and senior players like Mats Hummels and Leandro Paredes have gone from being regularly left out to becoming key players again.

“There will still be bad results over the next few months as well as some good ones, but as you say, that sense of ‘crisis’ seems to have dissipated.”

Is this Roma squad hugely underperforming or does it have big flaws? Also, what was your opinion on the summer business done?

“I would say a bit of both for the first question. Ranieri has started to show there is more talent in this squad than performances (and selection decisions) previously suggested. At the same time, this is a flawed squad that hasn’t been constructed well – which comes back to the second question.

“I strongly believe the summer transfer window was a massive missed opportunity for Roma. There were fewer Financial Fair Play restrictions than previous years and lots of players who were on loan needed replacing, so Roma ended up spending more than they had in a number of years.

“With the confidence they put in De Rossi, it was a chance to build the squad he wanted. But, maybe because he didn’t have a fully fleshed-out system yet either, Roma bought a bunch of players who didn’t appear to fit together.

“A lot of those players are good, there’s no denying that, but it was hard to see the vision and it’s led to players like Matias Soulé and Enzo Le Fée struggling to cement their place. It was like if a cook had a lot of good individual ingredients that just didn’t go together to make a meal.

“What’s more, some areas of need that were seen as priorities before the summer, such as a strong starting right-back and more pace on the wings, were left unaddressed.

“But of the new signings, Manu Koné (arguably Roma’s best player this season) and to a lesser extent Artem Dovbyk, Hummels and a certain Alexis Saelemaekers have had some redeeming qualities so far (in addition to Angeliño whose loan was sensibly made permanent).”

What have been the high and low points of the campaign to this point?

“There have been more lows than highs, notably the loss to Elfsborg I mentioned earlier, but also the 5-1 loss to Fiorentina, especially when one of the players we let go in the summer, Edoardo Bove, was running the show for the opponents.

“Even since Ranieri returned, there’s been a loss to Como. But this has also been where some of the higher points have been; beating Lecce 4-1 and Parma 5-0 earlier this month, regardless of the stature of opposition, have restored some confidence.

“I’d even put the 2-2 draw with Tottenham in the Europa League up there in terms of how we changed our approach and gained more self-belief because of it.”

What is the outside perspective on Milan, and how did you react to Paulo Fonseca getting the job?

“I’d see this game as a good indicator of where we’re both at as both teams are falling below expectations this season. It’s winnable for either.

“I was surprised at the choice of Fonseca by Milan as the departure of Pioli left me thinking the plan would be to bring in a significant upgrade, which I don’t believe Fonseca is. I was equally surprised he took on the risk of coming back to Serie A given that he struggled with Roma before but seemed to be doing better in France.

“Maybe he felt he had a point to prove, because at Roma I felt he showed some tactical naivety and stubbornness to ideas that weren’t working, which he was too slow to change. I’m not surprised he’s been under pressure at Milan and I’m intrigued to see him up against Ranieri, who he replaced at Roma.

“In hindsight, I would have preferred to keep Ranieri back then as I don’t think Fonseca improved us, perhaps similar to how he hasn’t improved Milan post-Pioli yet.”

Are there any injuries/other selection problems? What is the starting line-up likely to be?

“The main absentee through injury at the moment is Bryan Cristante, who was in danger of losing his starting role anyway so it hasn’t changed the plans too much.

“Ranieri has also been cutting back on how much captain Lorenzo Pellegrini is being used, so don’t be surprised not to see him in the starting lineup. The formation recently has been a variation between a 3-4-2-1 or a 3-5-2, with the three centre-backs being a settled choice.

“Last week the lineup was: Svilar; Mancini, Hummels, Ndicka; Saelemaekers, Koné, Paredes, Angeliño; Dybala, El Shaarawy; Dovbyk. Ranieri didn’t make any subs, so he might go for the same lineup again.

“The only way he may change it would be putting Niccolò Pisilli in as another midfield body, probably instead of El Shaarawy. But I imagine about all but one or two shirts are safe, especially after winning 5-0 last week.”

Probable Roma XI (3-5-2): Svilar; Mancini, Hummels, Ndicka; Saelemaekers, Kone, Paredes, Pisilli, Angelino; Dybala, Dovbyk.

Head to head

There are only two teams Milan have played more in their 125-year history than Roma, which are Juventus and Inter. There have been 199 meetings meaning this will be a landmark game, with 84 wins, 62 draws and 53 defeats, and a +57 goal difference.

Last season was a rather strange one as the Rossoneri did the league double over the Giallorossi, winning 2-1 away (goals from Giroud and Leao) and 3-1 at home (Adli, Giroud and Theo scoring).

However, Roma would get some form of revenge in the Europa League quarter-finals, winning 1-0 at San Siro in the first leg (Mancini scoring) and 2-1 back at the Stadio Olimpico (Mancini netting again plus Dybala).

Prior to that Milan had gone nine games unbeaten against the team from the capital, and had only lost once away against them since 2016.

Key facts and stats

➤ Milan are unbeaten in each of their last nine Serie A matches against Roma (W6 D3), scoring an average of 2.2 goals per game; the Giallorossi’s last win against the Rossoneri in the competition was back in October 2019 (2-1).

➤ Roma have conceded at least two goals in each of their last six away league games against Milan; in Serie A they have recorded a longer streak with at least two away goals conceded against this opponent only between 1942 and 1953 (8 games) – the Giallorossi had conceded a maximum of one goal in their previous three away games against the Rossoneri (W3).

➤ Milan have scored in 13 consecutive Serie A games against Roma for the first time in their history; on the other hand, the Giallorossi have scored in each of their last eight league matches against the Rossoneri, their longest such run since 2009 (run of nine).

➤ Roma have lost each of their last four away league games, the Giallorossi have recorded five consecutive defeats on just one occasion in the three points for a win era in Serie A (since 1994-95), doing so between September and November 2008 under Luciano Spalletti.

➤ Milan have kept at least six clean sheets in their first eight home games in a Serie A season for the second time in the three points for a win era, after 2002-03 (7); however, the Rossoneri haven’t scored in three of their last four home league games, as many as in their previous 45.

➤ Roma have won two of their last three league games (L1), as many wins as in their previous nine Serie A matches (D1 L6); however, the Giallorossi have won only once in their last 10 matches against opponents that started the matchday in the top eight of the Serie A standings (D3 L6): 3-0 against Udinese in September.

➤ Considering the last match of the calendar year in Serie A, AC Milan have won each of their last four games between 2020 and 2023, after having only won two of the previous eight (D3 L3); on the other hand, Roma haven’t won their last league match of the calendar year between 2021 and 2023 (D2 L1), after having won 17 of the previous 20 (D2 L1).

➤ Only Atalanta (500) and Inter (452) have made more touches in the opposition’s penalty area than Roma (445) and AC Milan (436) in Serie A so far this season.

➤ Tijjani Reijnders is the Serie A central midfielder who has been involved in the most goals this season across all competitions (10 – 8 goals, 2 assists). The AC Milan player is also one of two midfielders who has had at least 20 shots (25) and completed at least 20 dribbles (20) in the current Italian top-flight campaign, along with Como’s Nico Paz.

➤ Paulo Dybala is the player currently in the competition who has been involved in the most goals against AC Milan in Serie A (12 – 7 goals, 5 assists); however, the Roma forward has only scored one goal at the San Siro against the Rossoneri in Serie A, in November 2014 for Palermo.

Ones to watch

Theo Hernandez, without a doubt, is the biggest player to watch in this tie. Against Hellas Verona, he was not superb, but he did his job. Now, set to be back in the starting XI, he has a chance to show his best and show the Rossoneri what they have been missing. He must take his chance, failing to do so extends an already uncomfortable conversation about his future.

We also need to see slightly more of the midfield as well, despite being so vital in the win against Verona, there was a lack of something and Milan struggled for most of the game. Therefore, a better performance from the trio – not individuals – is a must.

We asked Samuel who Roma’s key performers have been, to which he responded: “Roma’s two best players this season have been Manu Koné, who has given the midfield what it was lacking for a long time, and Mile Svilar in goal.

“Evan Ndicka has improved in defence too so may be the toughest obstacle for Milan. In recent weeks, Paulo Dybala, Leandro Paredes and Saelemaekers have been coming into form, so watch out for them.

“Dovbyk is also someone to be wary of up front, he’s been hot and cold so far (more cold than hot in the last few weeks!) but is the leading scorer so isn’t someone to discount.”

Prediction

This is a chance for both teams to ‘restart’ (if we can still say that) their seasons. They have been named as two of the most disappointing teams of the season, and they could get back onto the right foot with a positive result.

Seeing the Rossoneri edge a result would not be a surprise, and given they probably have more to lose in this game, Fonseca will be demanding slightly more from his side, for everyone’s sake.

AC Milan 2-1 Roma