Opta Predicts Man City v Chelsea: Back Foden goal in 25/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

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We have got an absolute ding-dong battle in store in the Premier League in the Saturday tea-time kick-off slot this weekend.

With both Manchester City and Chelsea needing a win to cement their top-four ambitions, and keep any flickering hope of a title challenge alive, there is plenty to look forward to.

But before we get too excited, let's have a look at some data and see where the best betting angles are

Fragile City worth backing at the price

It is important to start this by saying that Manchester City's 4-2 Champions League defeat to Paris Saint-Germain was undoubtedly damaging, but they at least look to be on the road to recovery in domestic competitions.

Pep Guardiola's team come into their home game against Chelsea having taken 10 points from the last available 12 in the Premier League, with four wins in six across all competitions. They have also scored four or more goals on three occasions within that sequence, and at least twice in every fixture.

We need to acknowledge that those victories came against Leicester City, West Ham, Salford City and Ipswich Town - three teams in the Premier League's bottom seven and one from League Two - and that it is a small sample size.

But their current form is an objective improvement from the run of nine defeats and one victory in 13 matches between October and December. Such was the length of their lull, victory here would represent their first back-to-back home league victories since October.

The manner of their most recent league victory away to Ipswich last Sunday looked ominously familiar - it was the 13th time that City have scored six or more goals in a league game under Guardiola, the same number as Arsenal under Arsene Wenger while only Manchester United under Alex Ferguson (14) can better that record.

The 6-0 pasting they gave the Tractor Boys, then, could just be a catalyst to propel them back into the outer reaches of the title race. While the Opta supercomputer gives them just a 0.2% chance of retaining the trophy, it is telling that Chelsea are behind them on 0.03%.

Victories breed confidence and confidence, in turn, breeds better performances. Since drawing 1-1 with Everton on Boxing Day, Manchester City have not made any errors leading directly to a goal in the Premier League - having made five prior to that. There has also been just one individual error leading to a shot in the four league games since Everton, compared to 17 beforehand.

This recent uptick for Manchester City can also, in part, be attributed to the return from injury of some key players. At its nadir, City's injury list included Rodri, Mateo Kovacic, Phil Foden, Nathan Ake, John Stones. Manuel Akanji and Oscar Bobb. With the return of Stones, who came off the bench in Paris on Wednesday, more than half of those are again available for selection, with Foden in particular thriving of late.

Notably, City would be second in a mini-league between all teams currently in the Premier League's top six, having taken eight points from five matches. Chelsea would be fifth on five points.

Recent history is also behind City this weekend, given that they are on a seven-game unbeaten run in the league against Chelsea (W5 D2), with their last defeat coming in May 2021. So, there are few reasons why City can get an important victory here and, at 1/1, there is probably just about enough in the price to get behind them. It's worth remembering that Chelsea's 3-1 win at home to Wolves on Monday is their only league victory in six.

But context within the game will be more important than most here. Even after improving their form, City have consistently shown a fragility when things don't go their way - they surrendered a two-goal lead on Wednesday to lose 4-2 in Paris.

Guardiola's side also gave up a two-goal lead in the last eight minutes to draw 2-2 at Brentford earlier this month and have dropped 14 points from winning positions in the league - the seventh-most. They have also conceded nine goals in the last 15 minutes of matches, with only Aston Villa, Everton, Brentford, Southampton and Wolves having let in more.

As a result of the above, Manchester City/draw and Manchester City/Chelsea are worth considering in the half-time/full-time markets at 11/1 and 25/1 respectively.

Expect goals at the Etihad

The combination of shaky defences, underperforming goalkeepers and a return to form of both teams' attacking players mean that goals feel nailed on in this match. As a result, it is unsurprising that BTTS is as short as 4/11, and instead it's worth looking at both teams to score twice at 11/5.

City come into this match having scored 24 goals in their last six matches in all competitions, while Chelsea have hit 11 in four. But crucially, the only clean sheets within that period for either side came against Salford, Morecambe and Ipswich. Chelsea have also kept just one clean sheet in their last 16 away league games against Manchester City.

But even with goals expected for both teams, under 1.5 first-half goals could be a good pick at 8/11. There has been more than one first-half goal in just one of Chelsea's last seven in all competitions, while City's games against PSG (2-4) and Brentford (2-2) were goalless at half-time before bursting into life after the break.

Chelsea's shot machine worth a look

When looking for individuals who pose an attacking threat, Manchester City old boy Cole Palmer is the obvious choice and, at 17/10, it is hard to dissuade anyone. His 14 league goals account for 31.8% of Chelsea's total (44) this season and he is currently equal-fourth in the Golden Boot standings. But with just three goals in his last seven appearances, there is an even better value pick for the visitors.

Noni Madueke scored his sixth league goal of the season against Wolves on Monday and is 10/3 to get another at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday. The England international averages 4.25 shots per 90 minutes in the league - more than any Chelsea player to have made more than 12 appearances.

Madueke ranks second for total shots in the Chelsea team with 61, which is two more than Nicolas Jackson despite having played 346 fewer minutes and not playing centrally. In his last five Premier League starts, Madueke has had 26 shots and scored two goals.

Even if you don't fancy him to score, he is 13/10 to have three or more shots. Given the volume of attempts he is having, it is also worth knowing that he is 25/1 to score two or more.

Another player who is looking dangerous is Phil Foden, who has scored five goals in his last three league appearances.

The 24-year-old seems to have rediscovered his clinical edge at a good time for City. Having failed to score from 24 shots in his first 11 Premier League appearances of the season, he now has six goals from 18 shots in his last six games.

He has also managed 12 shots on target in his last 10 matches, and is available at 2/1 to score and 13/8 to have two or more shots on target.