Opta Predicts Leicester v Liverpool: Back Reds win in 22/1 Bet Builder on Easter Sunday | OneFootball

English Premier League

Back Opta's Leicester v Liverpool bet builder on Betfair

Liverpool are within touching distance of the Premier League title as they head to struggling Leicester on Easter Sunday. Opta preview the televised clash and recommend a bet builder that you can back at a big price...

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Mismatches don't come much bigger than this in the Premier League in any season. Let's get stuck in, previewing what could be a big day for both teams.

Surprises unlikely for Liverpool or Leicester

For vastly different reasons, this is a game that could be a season-defining moment for both Leicester City and Liverpool.

Leicester come into this second-bottom in the Premier League table and as the lowest-ranked side that has not yet had their relegation confirmed at the time of writing. They are 17 points from safety with six games to go and 18 points left to play for.

A victory for fourth-bottom West Ham at home to already-relegated Southampton on Saturday will confirm their drop back to the Championship after just one season.

But should there be any slip-up from the Hammers, nothing less than a win against Liverpool on Sunday will be good enough for Ruud van Nistelrooy's side to ensure at least an extra week's stay of execution.

Coincidentally, a win here for Liverpool could see them crowned Premier League champions if Arsenal are beaten at Ipswich Town earlier in the day.

Both long-term outcomes are near enough a certainty at some stage, though the Foxes' relegation looks likelier to happen this weekend. Prior to their 2-2 draw away to Brighton last weekend, Leicester stayed up in just one of the Opta supercomputer's 10,000 simulations for the rest of the campaign (0.01%). Now, the supercomputer gives them no way out.

The pertinent question here is whether Liverpool will get the opportunity to relegate them or whether their fate will already be sealed by then. The 1/5 available for Arne Slot's side to take three points at the King Power Stadium should give you an idea, if needed, as to how one-sided the game is expected to be.

Liverpool's record against smaller teams also offers zero hope for the hosts. This season the Reds have won six games out of six in all competitions against teams that were promoted to the Premier League. Extend that out and they have won each of their last 11 and 13 of their last 14, drawing one.

For any talk of Liverpool having let their level dip recently, their Premier League form certainly doesn't tell that story. They have both the best home and travelling records in the league, with a 3-2 loss at Fulham this month their first away defeat of the season.

Slot's side have won 10 and drawn five of their 16 matches away from Anfield, picking up at least seven points more than any other team. They come into this having won 16 of their last 23 league games - a run that includes their 3-1 victory at home to Leicester on Boxing Day.

On the flipside, Leicester come into this with their only point in their last nine matches coming from that dramatic clash with Brighton last time out. Van Nistelrooy's side have lost 15 of their last 17 league games, with the four points they have taken in that period level with bottom-of-the-league Southampton.

The Foxes have also lost 10 games out of 10 against teams currently in the top seven of the Premier League, while only Southampton (13) have lost more home games than them (11).

So, while we can be pretty confident that the data is pointing to an away win - indeed, no top-flight team is more likely than Liverpool to triumph this weekend according to the Opta supercomputer - it makes sense to look for more profitable ways in which to get behind the champions-elect.

While Liverpool to win the first half is hardly a huge price, the 8/13 gives us a good platform for a bet builder - the half-time/full-time for Liverpool is also available at 8/11.

The Foxes have been behind at half-time in six of their last eight defeats, while a half-time score of 3-0 to Liverpool is priced at 13/1 with the hosts having been trailing by that exact score at the break in three of those defeats. The -1 first-half handicap also looks a decent bet at 11/4.

Goal-shy Leicester to continue on same path

Another way to get against Leicester is capitalising on their impotence as an attacking force.  Interestingly, Leicester have recorded the fourth-most pressures resulting in turnovers (848) in the Premier League this season.

But they have also executed the fewest fast breaks (17) - defined as an attempt created after the defensive team quickly turn defence into attack after winning the ball in their own half - and scored the fewest goals from fast breaks (one).

Their passing accuracy (81.8%) is also the seventh-worst in the league, while they have registered the second-fewest shots on goal (205).

So, what the above suggests is that Leicester struggle to progress the ball up the pitch without losing it once they have won it from their opponents. In other words, they don't have the creativity or attacking ingenuity to control things outside their own half.

That theory plays out when considering that Leicester have the worst expected goals (xG) total in the Premier League at 27.8 and have scored the second-fewest goals (27) behind only Southampton (23).

As a result, there is a compelling case for under 0.5 home goals 11/10 and BTTS: No at 9/10.

Should Leicester fail to find the net against Liverpool, they will become the first team in English top-flight history to go nine home league games without a goal. In the entire Football League, meanwhile, it has only ever happened twice.

Liverpool, meanwhile, are the Premier League's top scorers with 74 goals - scoring at least eight more than any other side on the road (40) - and have registered the highest xG (70.79) by at least nine on any other team.

Salah the provider

It doesn't take the cutting edge of tactical analysis to know that Mohamed Salah is having a good season and that a three-game goal drought is nothing to worry about.

The Egyptian has registered 24 shots in the five league games against promoted sides, most recently taking five at home to Southampton in March. At 8/11 for four or more shots, he is worth considering.

But it's in the anytime assist market where the value lies. Salah has created 15 chances in his last five Premier League games, with his totals against Southampton (six) and Newcastle (four) ranking among his top six matches this season for chance creation.

Along with being the Premier League's top goalscorer, he is also the top for assists with 18 - seven more than any other player - and has five in his last nine. Salah's average position on the pitch also lends itself well to crossing and putting balls across goal for his team-mates to snap up.

In the absence of Trent Alexander-Arnold, there is also more of an onus on Salah to be a creative force and at 6/4, there is plenty of juice in his price to register an assist here.

In terms of goalscorers, Alexis Mac Allister is a nicely priced option to keep an eye on. In terms of xG, two of his five best returns have come in his last four starts. Against West Ham last time out, Mac Allister registered 0.3 xG from four shots, while he also posted 0.22 xG from two shots in the Newcastle home game in late February.

Mac Allister has hit 25 shots in his last 13 starts, scoring spectacularly in Liverpool's last away game against Fulham. He comes into this on the back of four shots at home to West Ham and is 4/1 to score anytime. At 5/2 for three or more shots, he is also worth taking on in a Build Ups bet against someone like Curtis Jones, who hasn't had more than one in any of his last three starts.

Elsewhere, it's worth pointing out that Leicester have picked up the fourth-most cards in the Premier League this season (75). Curiously, they have also seen the second-fewest cards issued to their opponents (47). Given that Liverpool have picked up just 56 bookings so far - the fourth-fewest in the league - the hosts are worth backing to pick up more cards than their visitors.

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Back Liverpool -2, BTTS 'No', Mac Allister to score, Salah to assist @ 22/1