Opponent Analysis: AC Milan vs Juventus (Images) | OneFootball

This Saturday, 6th Juventus travels to San Siro to face 7th AC Milan. Both teams will hope to bounce back from disappointing results before the international break. La Vecchia Signora has managed only two wins in their last six matches, while the Rossoneri were held to a draw by a struggling Cagliari side that sits just two points off the bottom of the table.

AC Milan struggled early in the season, but has since improved. They’ve managed impressive victories against formidable opponents including  Inter Milan and Real Madrid, only to drop points against teams such as Parma and Cagliari. Milan appears to thrive on big occasions but often plays down to the level of mid- and lower-table opponents.

In the final third of the pitch, Milan relies heavily on their wingers to generate goal-scoring opportunities. The Rossoneri are particularly threatening on the left side of the final third, as highlighted in the expected threat heatmap. This is largely due to Rafael Leão frequently driving at opposing right-backs and delivering diagonal balls across the eighteen-yard box from the touchline. A prime example of this is Tijjani Reijnders’ third goal against Real Madrid.

The goals and shots off the bar map further supports this pattern, showing that a significant portion of Milan’s goals and threatening shots come from the right-hand side of the eighteen-yard box. Interestingly, Milan also creates considerable threat from the lower right side of the final third. This can be attributed to build-up plays, such as the one below against Inter Milan where Emerson Royal finds Tijjani Reijnders, who then locates Tammy Abraham into space behind the Nerazzurri defense, or from set pieces like Milan’s second goal against Inter.

Milan build-up play varies as evidenced by matches against Cagliari and Real Madrid. The contrast in the volume of progressive passes from this zone in each game is unsurprising. Against Cagliari, Milan was able to move out of their own half with ease, maintaining composure under minimal pressure. In contrast, against Real Madrid, they faced significantly more resistance, even with the addition of an extra midfielder. Against Cagliari, Paulo Fonseca opted for a two-man central midfield, whereas against Real Madrid, he deployed three central midfielders, with the addition of Yunus Musah.

In both matches, the number of unsuccessful passes from the middle of the pitch was notably low, reflecting Fonseca’s preference for a midfield anchored by Reijnders and Fofana. While Milan’s midfielders managed to hold their own, the wingbacks faced more challenges, particularly in the game against Real Madrid. Emerson Royal appeared hesitant to advance the ball and frequently resorted to short passes to nearby teammates. Although the number of unsuccessful passes was low, the limited volume of progressive passes on the right side suggests a lack of confidence in pushing forward.

In contrast, Theo Hernández attempted significantly more long progressive passes against Real Madrid compared to the match against Cagliari. However, many of these attempts resulted in Milan losing possession, highlighting the risks associated with his more aggressive approach.

With Juan Cabal sidelined for the season due to injury, Andrea Cambiaso is expected to step in as left-back. While playing on the left allows Cambiaso to target Milan’s right side, where Emerson Royal operates, it also leaves Nicolò Savona tasked with defending Rafael Leão. Given Savona’s inexperience, it could be a challenging night for the young Italian. Acknowledging Milan’s offensive strength on that flank, with the duo of Theo Hernández and Rafael Leão, Thiago Motta will likely deploy Timothy Weah on the right wing and Khéphren Thuram as a right-sided holding midfielder to provide additional defensive cover.

AC Milan has demonstrated their ability to challenge top clubs, so if Juventus hopes to secure all three points, they must neutralize Milan’s threat on the left and apply consistent pressure on the wingbacks when in possession.