Nottingham Forest v Newcastle United: Back fantastic Forest to avoid defeat again | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back to preview Nottingham Forest v Newcastle on Super Sunday

Odds compiler and Football tipster Mark Stinchcombe is here to preview Nottingham Forest v Newcastle United in the Premier League on Super Sunday...

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Nottingham Forest v Newcastle UnitedSunday, 14:00Live on Sky Sports

Former Magpies set to haunt visitors

Nottingham Forest have made a superb start to the season. They've lost just one of 10 games to sit in a Champions League position of third! Their great start has been built on their fantastic defensive record. Only league leaders Liverpool (six) have conceded fewer goals than Nottingham Forest (seven), with only Brighton managing to score more than once against the Tricky Trees so far (2-2 draw). This great start is no fluke either, with Forest possessing the third best expected goals against and as a result the sixth best expected points.

From a betting perspective, it's worth looking at Forest's key players this season. Chris Wood is joint second top goalscorer with a fantastic return of eight goals in 10 and is 2/1 to score again against his former club, who he bagged a hat-trick against at St James' on Boxing Day last year. In fact his record since joining in January-23 is extremely good with 21 goals in just 35 Premier League starts.

In terms of players setting him up, it's another ex-Newcastle player in Elliot Anderson who leads the way for Forest with three assists and he looks a fantastic price at 13/2 to add another one if he starts.

Back 0.5pts Elliot Anderson anytime Assist

SBK13/2

In terms of players setting him up, it's another ex-Newcastle player in Elliot Anderson who leads the way for Forest with three assists and he looks a fantastic price at 13/2 to add another one if he starts. Again no fluke, with him a creative force in the Forest midfield averaging 1.4 key-passes per-game (a pass that leads to a shot at goal). Two of his three assists have been for Chris Wood goals so let's also have a small bet on that happening again at 12/1. The New Zealander has scored 57% of Forest's goals so far this season.

From a defensive point of view, Neco Williams, that man again Elliot Anderson and Nicolas Dominguez all lead the way with three bookings each but at prices of 13/5, 13/5 and 6/4 they are easily overlooked.

Back hosts to avoid defeat

Despite a kind schedule, Newcastle have the seventh worst expected goals for and are conceding the seventh most shots-per-game (15.0). As a result they are only 13th based on expected points and can easily be opposed as favourites at the City Ground on Sunday. They ended a five-game winless run last weekend (D2 L3) but there are concerns with all four of their league wins this term having been by a single goal compared to last season - 67% of their victories in 23/24 were by a margin of at least two goals (12 of 18).

Last season, Newcastle had 20 different goalscorers (excluding own goals). So far this season, only Crystal Palace (4) have had fewer different scorers than the Magpies (5) as goals have been a struggle with the joint fourth fewest with just 10 in 10 games. The best bet here is to back the hosts +0.25 on the Asian Handicap. We will get paid out at least half our stake with just avoiding defeat.

Column P/L 2024/25

Recommended bets

Back 1pt Forest -0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.74

Back 0.5pts Elliot Anderson anytime Assist @ 13/2

Back 0.1pts Chris Wood to score a goal assisted by Elliot Anderson @ 12/1