Monday Football Tips: Guimaraes fouls trend worth following | OneFootball

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Bruno Guimaraes: Has long been the Premier League's most fouled player

The Premier League's most-fouled player features heavily in our football props column's 7/1 Bet Builder for Newcastle v West Ham on Monday night...

Newcastle v West HamMonday 25 November, 20:00Live on Sky Sports Premier League & Main Event

My personal approach to football betting has long been to find trends that are being consistently overpriced by the bookmakers.

This tends to involve backing the same bet over a period of time, usually until the bookies wise up, adjust their model and change the odds significantly.

Leg 1: Bruno Guimaraes to be fouled 3+ times

One such bet I've followed regularly this season is Bruno Guimares to be fouled 3+ times.

The Brazilian was the most-fouled player in the Premier League last season and he's already at the top of the list in 2024/25 - by a distance.

Guimares has been fouled 45 times in 11 games so far - Cole Palmer is second on that list with 29.

The Newcastle midfielder has landed the 3+ fouled bet in nine of those 11 matches and, taking things back to last season, has now delivered 12 times out of his last 14.

English Premier League - Top 5 Fouls Won

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It's therefore surprising that Guimares is available at 10/11 for a repeat in this contest, one which sees Newcastle - the third most-fouled team in the league - face the one in the top five for fouls committed.

A look at the referee also makes good reading for fans of this bet.

Craig Pawson is one of the better Premier League officials for penalising fouls this season - his average of 24.67 per game is well above the league figure of 22.88.

Leg 2: Fabian Schar to be shown a card

I'll personally back that as a single but with this being a Bet Builder column, I'm going to add Fabian Schar to be carded to create a tastily priced double.

The Swiss centre-back has been back to his old ways of late.

Schar has been a godsend for card punters over the years and while he's managed to rein himself in a little as time has gone by, the fact is he's been carded in five of his last eight games in all competitions and six in 11 in total this season.

7/2 is available about him making into Pawson's notebook on Monday night when he'll have a physical battle with Michail Antonio to deal with, not to mention the oft-fouled Crycensio Summerville cutting in off West Ham's left flank.

Pawson is slightly below the league average for cards this season, although his figure of 4.67 per game is still high by long-term standards.

Interestingly, he's carded Schar in the two matches their paths have crossed already this season too.

Recommended bets

Back Bruno Guimaraes to be fouled 3+ times & Fabian Schar to be shown a card @ around 7/1

Column P/L 2024/25

Staked: 132pts Returned: 157.93pts P/L: +25.93pts

2023/24 P/L: +16.78pts 2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts