La Liga Tips: Back Rayo Vallecano to strike first blood against Real Madrid at 2/1 | OneFootball

Spanish LaLiga

Rayo have made a habit of giving the big sides a scare

A capital derby is on the menu this weekend in La Liga, and Jamie Kemp is backing underdogs Rayo Vallecano to make life difficult for Real Madrid at Vallecas...

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Sevilla v Celta Vigo - Sat, 17:30

It's not quite a must win game for Sevilla, but Garcia Pimienta could really do with one when they welcome Celta Vigo on Saturday evening. His side have won just one of their last five outings in La Liga (D1 L3), and surrendered a 3-1 lead to lose 4-3 against Atletico Madrid last weekend - a bitter defeat for all involved, even if the result in isolation isn't all that surprising.

After 16 games of the new Sevilla project, they still haven't managed to record back-to-back wins in La Liga. The isolated victories have rarely been convincing, and each triumph has tended to come with one step back - or even two.

Garcia Pimienta's style is to dominate the game through possession, but that process has been hard to implement at Sevilla so far. And another problem here is that Celta Vigo have looked very accomplished with their own possession play this season. They certainly have the quality to take the ball off Sevilla for long periods and frustrate the home crowd.

On the flip side, Celta Vigo have a hard time on the defensive end. Claudio Giraldez openly admits that the goals conceded column in the table doesn't concern him, as long as his team can outscore the opposition when all is said and done. It's a simple equation, but one that tells us his team are happy to take risks and cede some base solidity as they go about trying to create quality chances.

Even when they're poor at home, Sevilla can almost always count on the inertia that the home crowd impart. They don't need to be fluid on the ball to sustain pressure and push the opponent back - it just tends to happen by default in the cauldron that is the Ramon-Sanchez Pizjuan. Not to mention, Dodi Lukebakio has been a huge individual catalyst this season, netting seven league goals already.

This is a game where I can see Celta Vigo having plenty of moments of joy, but putting together a complete enough performance to win there will be a different question. I'll stick with both teams to score and Lukebakio to land a shot on target in the process.

Rayo Vallecano v Real Madrid - Sat, 20:00

The big fixture on Rayo Vallecano's calendar, welcoming the footballing giants Real Madrid to their modest Vallecas home is always a passionate event. There, in front of their own fans and on that tight playing surface, Rayo fancy their chances of levelling the playing field and taking the game to even La Liga's most feared sides.

Saturday evening will be no different. Under the lights at Vallecas, look for Inigo Perez's side to come out of the traps with their typical speed and aggression, setting the trend for the game early. Indeed, this is the status quo for Rayo in these big games - to try to make their much more skilled opponent as uncomfortable as possible when moving the ball around.

Precisely a third of Rayo's goals in La Liga this season have been scored in the opening 15 minutes of play (5/15), with five being the most in the division in that time period. They've also scored within 15 minutes of kick-off in each of their last two outings in the competition, doing so at home to Athletic and away at Valencia last time out.

With Real Madrid playing away in Europe in midweek, making the trip to Vallecas comes with potentially problematic timing too, factoring in some extra fatigue. Though they're logically handsome favourites, even the big sides still need to be at a good level to win this fixture. What's more, between Real Madrid and Barcelona combined, they have managed just two victories from their last eight combined away games against Rayo in La Liga (including just one clean sheet).

Inigo Perez's side opened the scoring in the ninth minute at home to Barcelona back in August, and I'll go with them to land the first blow in this one too. Regardless of whether they can hold on to secure a result, Rayo to open the scoring at 2/1 looks like decent value here

Real Sociedad v Las Palmas - Sun, 17:30

Real Sociedad look like they're back. And by back, I mean a return to one of La Liga's most feared defences, and a team who often only need one goal to take all three points. Travelling to face them at the Reale Arena has never been easy, but this looks like a particularly difficult moment to make the trip.

Imanol Alguacil's side have won four of their last five matches in La Liga, keeping a clean sheet in all four of those victories. Indeed, the only game they failed to win in this run was away to Athletic Bilbao at San Mames - one of the hardest fixtures on the Spanish football calendar. They were second best that night, but they've had the upper hand in every other game in the last month or so.

Speaking of good form, Las Palmas' run of form since Diego Martinez took charge has been nothing short of remarkable. After going 23 consecutive matches without winning in La Liga - a run which spanned two different managerial tenures before Martinez arrived - they have won five of their seven league games under the current boss.

The results have been outstanding, and improved Las Palmas' chances of surviving the drop this term in a major way. However, while it's hard to say anything but positive things about the impact of their new manager so far, there are reasons to think that their run of form will be hard to sustain.

Las Palmas have the second-worst xG difference in La Liga since Martinez took charge in October (-6), only ahead of Real Valladolid. And although we can credit them for their defensive resilience and improved organisation, their results look likely to slow down if they continue to be at such a deficit when it comes to chance creation. Their efficiency on both ends won't last forever.

In a match between two sides in good form, but one where the underlying numbers suggest a clear superiority on the part of one, I'll opt for Real Sociedad to win this one without too many problems

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