Italy v Spain: Gain with Spain and Both Teams to Score | OneFootball

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Our football props column keeps its attention on Women's Euro 2025 and is following a trend when Italy face tournament favourites Spain on Friday...

Italy v SpainFriday 11 July, 20:00Live on BBC One

Let's first mention the elephant in the room - the draw suits both sides in this Women's Euro 2025 game.

Spain require only a point to secure top spot in the group, while a draw would also guarantee Italy's passage into the knockout stage as runners-up.

Given those circumstances, it's perhaps surprising to see the draw offered at 5/1 but the reason is that Spain fancy their chances of beating everyone in this field and frankly should be too good for the Italians here.

They've smashed in 11 goals in their two games against Portugal and Belgium so far and while Italy are arguably better than those two, group results suggest there's not much in it - they drew with Portugal and edged past Belgium by the odd goal.

There will certainly be a temptation to rest players - France did when they still had plenty to play for the other night - and given the likes of Ballon d'Or winner Aitana Bonmati are ready to come into the starting XI, it may not make much difference.

However, there is definitely some uncertainty over the starting line-up and with that in mind, it probably makes sense to swerve the player props markets in favour of team performance ones.

Leg 1: Spain to win

Despite that draw-suits-all scenario, I'm happy to back Spain, who have torn through opposition defences with ease so far.

They are the tournament's leading scorers and look very much worthy of their position as trophy favourites.

Leg 2: Both teams to score

However, that willingness to surge forward has left occasional gaps at the gap and it's worth noting their recent record in terms of conceding goals.

Belgium scored twice against them on matchday two, a game Spain ended up winning 6-2.

They've now conceded in eight of their last nine victories and adding the both-teams-to-score option turns a 2/9 shot into a tasty-looking 7/5 one.

For the record, the last meeting of the sides - a friendly in October - saw both teams score.

For those of you seeking something bigger - and willing to take a chance on second-guessing the team news - I like the 8/5 about Mariona Caldentey scoring.

She did so against Belgium and has now found the net in four of her last eight international starts.

The Arsenal star also finished last season in fine goalscoring form, netting in 11 of her last 17 games for the Gunners.

Adding that leg, bumps the price up above 4/1.

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