How England Can Advance to the Women’s Euro 2025 Quarterfinals | OneFootball

England's fate at Women's Euro 2025 is not yet sealed. The Lionesses will face Wales in the final match of Group D, while the Netherlands will take on France at the same time on Sunday, July 13.

After a shocking 2–1 defeat to France to open the tournament, England bounced back with a resounding 4–0 win over the Netherlands in the reigning European champions’ second game.

England is second in Group D, heading into the final group stage matchday, behind leaders France, who have six points and two wins. To advance, nations must finish in the top two positions in their four-team group.

Should two teams be level on points at the end of the group stage at Euro 2025, the tiebreaking scenarios are: Head-to-head record, goal difference, goals scored, disciplinary record and then qualifying ranking.

So, let's break down how England can advance to the quarterfinals.

What if England beats Wales?

The easiest route for England to advance is to win on Sunday. A win will guarantee the Lionesses a spot in the quarterfinals, and potentially even leapfrog them into the top spot in Group D if the Netherlands also beat France by enough goals for England to overtake France on goal difference. As it stands, England is behind France by one goal.

If England wins and France loses to the Netherlands, then all three nations will be tied with six points and two wins. That means the tiebreaker would become goal difference, followed by goals scored. The Netherlands is lagging after a 4–0 defeat to England.

If France beats the Netherlands, there is no way for England to finish top of Group D, but England would almost be guaranteed the second spot in that instance.

What if England ties with Wales?

A tie with Wales would leave England vulnerable to the Netherlands jumping into second place, if the Dutch can beat the French. However, it would not eliminate the Lionesses without the Netherlands pulling off a win.

If England and the Netherlands both tie, then England would advance in second place because of England’s superior head-to-head record. If England ties and the Netherlands loses to France, then England would also advance with a tie because England would have more points.

What if England loses to Wales?

For England to lose to Wales and still progress to the quarterfinals, the Lionesses will need France to do them a favor and defeat the Netherlands. If the Netherlands charges to a tie or win against France and England loses, the Dutch will finish above England.

There is also a third scenario, where Wales can defeat England by enough goals to jump into second place ahead of England and the Netherlands. For that to happen, France would need to beat the Netherlands, and Wales would need to score enough goals against England to flip a -6 goal difference above England’s current goal tally of +3.

For the Netherlands to progress, it needs to beat France, and for England to lose or draw against Wales. France only needs to avoid defeat to be certain of going through. If it loses to the Netherlands, it will still go through if England fails to win. If England wins and France loses, it would come down to goal difference in the head-to-head clashes between France, England and the Netherlands, where the Netherlands is at a significant disadvantage due to its heavy loss to England.

Wales can technically still qualify, but it would need to beat England by at least four goals and for France to beat the Netherlands.