Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Arsenal 1 Newcastle 0 | OneFootball

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the five Premier League matches from Sunday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Everton 2.68 v Southampton 1.05 (2-0)

West Ham 0.85 v Forest 2.15 (1-2)

Brentford 2.43 v Brentford 1.62 (2-3)

Leicester 0.79 v Ipswich 1.37 (2-0)

Arsenal 1.16 v Newcastle United 2.25 (1-0)

As you can see, some very interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.

The top two of these five matches show Everton (2.68 v 1.05) and Forest (2.15 v 0.85) had far higher Expected Goals stats than their respective opponents and fully deserved their wins.

Then the next two, whilst not quite a big an Expected Goals stat margin as those first two games, both Brentford and Ipswich lost their games despite having the better Expected Goals stat.

Newcastle United’s Expected Goals stat superiority over Arsenal was significantly higher than either Brentford or Ipswich’s over their respective opponents, yet NUFC also lost their game.

Newcastle United (2.25) had an Expected Goals stat almost twice as high as Arsenal’s (1.16).

When using any stats you have to also look at the bigger picture when using them and especially whether they match up with what you witnessed yourself (if you saw the whole match).

The facts are that apart from the Arsenal goal, I can only remember one big chance for the home side, when Nick Pope produced a brilliant reflex save from a header, when a corner was delivered to the near post. In contrast, Newcastle had far more and clearer chances, five on target in the opening 17 minutes, whilst Raya was named man of the match.

When fans talk about who ‘deserved’ to win any match, it can mean all kinds of different things.

It is true that Arsenal ‘deserved’ to win the match because they scored the only goal of the game. However, it is also true at the same time that based on balance of play and especially the chances created, Newcastle United not only should have got something from the game, they actually ‘deserved’ to win the match when it came to creating chances of their own and restricting the opposition to how many chances they had.

Sunday was a case of Declan Rice with a very good long range finish, whilst Newcastle failed to convert a number of better/easier chances. Which combined with the Arsenal keeper giving a MOTM performance, led to the defeat.

The other stats show that Newcastle United had more shots than Arsenal and more efforts on target than the Gunners. Our eyes then told us that the chances Newcastle created were overall far better than the ones Arsenal created, which the Expected Goals stats back up.

The reality of this game was that overall, Newcastle played a bit better than the opposition and by a clear margin created more/better chances, only to not have that clinical finishing needed, which combined with luck not going their way either and a MOTM performance by Raya, meant it was null points for United. That’s football.

Arsenal 1 Newcastle 0 – Sunday 18 May 4.30pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Arsenal:

Rice 55

Possession was Newcastle 48% Arsenal 52%

Total shots were Newcastle 14 Arsenal 12

Shots on target were Newcastle 5 Arsenal 4

Corners were Newcastle 7 Arsenal 10

Touches in the box Newcastle 33 Arsenal 33

Newcastle team v Arsenal:

Pope, Botman (Krafth 64), Schar, Burn, Livramento, Gordon, Tonali, Bruno, Barnes (Willock 76), Wilson (Osula 64), Murphy (Miley 63)

Unused Subs:

Dubravka, Lascelles, Longstaff, Neave, Ruddy

(Arsenal 1 Newcastle 0 – Match ratings and comments on all Newcastle United players – Read HERE)

(3 Positives and 3 Negatives to take from Arsenal 1 Newcastle 0 – Read HERE)

(Arsenal 1 Newcastle 0 – Instant Newcastle United fan/writer reaction – Read HERE)