Euro 2024 Group D Review: Faltering France have plenty to prove | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Kylian Mbappe scored from the penalty spot but France have failed to impress

While defence is France's strong spot, the other two sides to emerge from Group D should provide plenty of goals, writes James Eastham...

Expect entertainment when Austria play

"If you had bet on us to win and France not to win, you'd be a very rich man or woman," said a delighted Ralf Rangnick after his Austria side's 3-2 win vs Netherlands in their final group game, a victory that saw them clinch top spot in Group D ahead of a faltering France.

Austria went into the tournament as 8.0 outsiders to win Group D and those already-generous odds got even bigger after the team's 1-0 opening-game defeat to France. Subsequent impressive victories over Poland (3-1) and Netherlands (3-2) have seen Austria go through as group winners, however, while pre-tournament Group D odds-on favourites France could manage only second place following underwhelming back-to-back draws against the same opponents.

Firmly established as dark horses and one of the tournament's most entertaining sides so far, Austria will pose a threat in the Last 16. For their fans and neutrals alike, it will be fascinating to see how far they can go. One of the main lessons we learned from Austria's entertaining progress through the group stage was that the absence of a single world-class goalscorer in their ranks will not necessarily prove a hindrance during the knockout phase.

After their 1-0 defeat to France in their opening fixture, they stuck firmly to their gameplan and blasted their way past Poland and Netherlands. In both matches, they played some terrific attacking football while showing they can win games by sharing the goals around, with no fewer than five different players getting on the scoresheet. Committing large numbers of players forward and attacking intensely whenever spaces open up, Austria performed with a fearless energy, and are likely to do so during the next phase.

While they displayed plenty of attacking quality, the fact that Austria also conceded all all three of their group games indicates potentially the best way to bet on Rangnick's side during the knockout phase. Over 2.5 Goals and 'Yes' in the Both teams to Score? market are both worth considering when they line-up for their Last 16 fixture.

Defence the French strength

After winning just one of their first three games and finishing second in Group D, France have been pushed out from 5.8 pre-tournament second favourites on the exchange to 6.6 joint-third favourites to win the entire thing. It's hardly surprising that their odds have got bigger given the series of insipid performances Didier Deschamps' players produced during the group phase.

Having missed out on the Group D top spot, France now face a rocky route if they are to reach the final in Berlin on July 14. Germany or Spain are potential quarter-final opponents, while Roberto Martinez's Portugal - far more impressive than France during the group phase - are potential semi-final adversaries.

Given what a tough potential journey awaits them, it's a surprise that les Bleus have edged out by such small margins not only in the outright market to win the tournament, but also in the To Reach the Semi-Finals market: Deschamps' players have moved from a pre-tournament 4/5 to make the 1/2 finals to a still odds-on 10/11 today.

At least Kylian Mbappe got off the scoring mark with his penalty in their 1-1 final-group game draw vs Poland. The fact that no player at the tournament has yet scored more than two goals means the Real Madrid-bound marksman is still a serious contender to win the Golden Boot. At the time of writing he's 6/1 joint-favourite (with Harry Kane) in that particular market, and those odds will attract attention given how reliant France appear to be on him to score goals.

The clearest pattern that emerged on France during the group phase was their defence was much stronger than their attack. Goalkeeper Mike Maignan and centre-back William Saliba have been France's top two performers so far, and France have yet to concede a goal in open play. With the back four looking so solid and the attacking players struggling to convert the chances France create, Under 2.5 Goals would be a smart bet no matter who France face in the Last 16.

Back goals in Netherlands game

The opposite bet would be the smart selection on Netherlands as they head into the Last 16. Ronald Koeman's flawed but entertaining side - who qualified for the knockout phase as one of the best third-placed teams - were surprisingly open in all three of their group games, attacking with terrific quality at times but also getting split wide-open in defence. Their games provided plenty of entertainment, although centre-back-turned manager Koeman will doubtless be concerned about how many chances and goals they conceded.

In the final third, Memphis Depay, Cody Gakpo, Xavi Simons, and Wout Weghorst have all looked sharp. Given how those forwards have performed, Netherlands will be confident of finding the net in their Last-16 tie. We correctly predicted that both teams would score in their final group game vs Austria, and a similar outcome would be no surprise in the next round. Over 2.5 Goals (in 90 minutes) would also be worth considering as they look to make it through to the quarter-finals.