Derby v Portsmouth: Unders the angle at Pride Park | OneFootball

EFL Championship

11 of Derby's last 16 matches have featured Under 2.5 Goals

Bottom-half scrappers Derby and Portsmouth go head-to-head in Friday night's Championship affair. Betfair writer Mark O'Haire is expecting a close encounter...

Derby v PortsmouthFriday December 13, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

Resolute Rams pocket a big point

Derby's assistant boss Richie Barker hailed his side's battling performance at promotion-chasing Burnley in midweek as the Rams scrapped their way to a deserved point at Turf Moor. There was plenty to admire about County's resilience as the visitors defended magnificently, whilst also providing plenty of threat on the counter-attack.

Barker said, "I am very proud of a group of people who have had one day to work on on something a little bit different. The starting XI, the five lads who came in were absolutely brilliant - and possibly we could have gone on and won it. I think everybody who is attached to Derby County should be very proud of that group of players. We got our rewards."

Head coach Paul Warne made five changes to his team, moving towards a 3-5-2 shape as Kane Wilson, Craig Forsyth, Ben Osborn, Nathaniel Mendez-Laing and Kayden Jackson dropped to the bench with Callum Elder, Joe Ward, Kenzo Goudmijn, Dajaune Brown and Ebou Adams starting. The Rams boss is expected to shuffle his pack again on Friday.

Portsmouth continued their climb away from the Championship relegation zone with a hard-fought goalless draw against Norwich at Fratton Park on Tuesday night in a game high on effort yet low on clear-cut opportunities. The stalemate sees John Mousinho's men stretch their unbeaten streak to four, picking up eight points in their recent revival.

Speaking post-match, Mousinho said: "It's a really good point, the clean sheet is something to build on and to be honest I thought it was a really good performance from start to finish against a really, really good Championship side. I am really pleased with how far the boys have come, with the bravery they are showing to press and with the bravery on the ball."

Owen Moxon was handed a full Championship debut in midfield as both Callum Lang and Andre Dozzell were suspended. Paddy Lane also stepped into the XI in midweek, whilst skipper Marlon Pack continued as a makeshift defender with Conor Shaughnessy and Ibane Bowat out. Regan Poole has joined the treatment table after picking up a hamstring injury.

Stalemate stands-out

Derby and Portsmouth couldn't be separated during their successful promotion campaigns from League One last season - the pair played out home and away draws and have now settled for stalemates in six of their past 10 league meetings since 2003 - a repeat on Friday night pays 3.65. The Rams boast a W3-D6-L1 supremacy in that 10-game sequence.

Derby 1.89 are four points above the drop-zone but have pocketed just two league victories since mid-September (W2-D6-L7). Paul Warne's troops have scored only 14 goals in that 15-game sample, whilst only two clubs have generated a lower xG output across the past 16 showdowns. However, the Rams are W3-D4-L1 against bottom-half opposition.

Portsmouth 4.30 are W2-D2-L0 across their last four Championship fixtures, losing just once in six. Pompey's revival has coincided with the return of talismanic striker Colby Bishop, who has scored twice and assisted a third goal in only four appearances. The Blues boast a solitary success on the road, shipping multiple goals on six occasions (W1-D4-L4).

Close contest forecast

Derby and Portsmouth are both rated in the bottom-six for Expected Goals (xG) in the Championship, with the Rams' matches proving particularly low on goalmouth chances. Exclude penalties and County's contests are avergaing a miniscule 2.03 xG per-game, the second-lowest figure in the division. Eleven of Derby's last 16 saw Under 2.5 Goals pay.

Backing Under 2.5 Goals therefore holds plenty of appeal at 1.79 considering the quick turnaround for both teams, plus the magnitude of the match in the quest for second-tier survival. Three of Portsmouth's past four away days have also featured fewer than three strikes with Pompey recording back-to-back clean sheets for the first time this term.

Interestingly, seven of Derby's nine matches against fellow bottom-half scrappers have produced a maximum of two goals, whilst five of Portsmouth's eight encounters against the lesser lights have followed suit.

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Mark O’Haire says: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.79