Champions League: Ultimate guide to every Matchday 8 permutation | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

It's all to play for on Matchday 8 in the Champions League

On what promises to be a fascinating and very exciting final matchday in the Champions League, Mike Norman brings us the current standings and stats for all 36 clubs and tells us what they need to do on Wednesday night to remain in the competition...

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Aston Villa (9th) v Celtic (18th)

Aston Villa are assured of a play-off place but are in a great position to qualify for the Round of 16 without the need of two extra games. Because of their superior goal difference to the other teams on 13 points (bar Bayer Leverkusen), a win over Celtic will see them move into the top eight as long as all four of Atletico Madrid, AC Milan, Atalanta and Leverkusen don't win.

Celtic are also assured of a play-off place and that is very likely what they'll have to settle for come the conclusion of the final matchday. A win at Villa Park gives them a miniscule chance - and that's being kind - of climbing into the top eight but they would need lots of results to go their way, including 10 clubs positioned between 5th and 17th not to win. It's not going to happen.

A win for Celtic will definitely see them finish between 9th and 16th however (a draw might be good enough also) which means they'll be seeded for the play-offs draw, but when you could have the likes of Man City, PSG and Juventus among the unseeded teams, then I'm not sure how advantageous that is. So this is the first and last time that we'll mention the rather pointless seeded and unseeded aspect of the play-offs draw!

Barcelona (2nd) v Atalanta (7th)

Barcelona 18pts, +15 GD - 6/1 To be League Stage Winner

Atalanta 14pts, +14 GD - 12/5 To Finish Top 8

Barcelona have qualified for the Round of 16 and will finish top of the League Stage if they beat Atalanta and Liverpool lose at PSV. They can be backed at 6/1 to win the Champions League.

Only a win for Atalanta will guarantee a Round of 16 place as a defeat will open the door for 11 clubs (those on 13 and 12pts) to overtake them, while a draw will mean six clubs (those on 13pts) can overtake them. With a defeat just two clubs positioned 8th to 18th would need to win to see Atalanta finish in the play-off places.

Bayer Leverkusen (8th) v Sparta Prague (29th)

Bayer Leverkusen 13pts, +6 GD - 2/9 To Finish Top 8

Sparta Prague 4pts, -12 GD

Bayer Leverkusen are assured of a play-off place but because of their superior goal difference to the other clubs on 13 points, they will almost certainly remain in the top eight and qualify for the Round of 16 if they beat Sparta Prague. A draw or defeat will see them drop out of the top eight if just one of the 10 clubs immediately below them records a victory.

Sparta Prague have already been eliminated from the competition.

Bayern Munich (15th) v Slovan Bratislava (35th)

Bayern Munich 12pts, +6 GD - 9/2 To Finish Top 8

Slovan Bratislava 0pts, -18 GD

Bayern Munich are assured of a play-off place, and despite having arguably the easiest game on paper on the final matchday, they are likely to remain outside of the top eight even with a victory. With a win, Bayern would require at least four of the 10 clubs immediately above them not to win, and of those 10 clubs, three of them - Atletico Madrid (5th), AC Milan (6th) and Atalanta (7th) - could draw and still finish above Bayern.

Slovan Bratislava have already been eliminated from the competition.

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Borussia Dortmund (14th) v Shakhtar Donetsk (27th)

Borussia Dortmund 12pts, +8 GD - 11/2 To Finish Top 8

Shakhtar Donetsk 7pts, -6 GD - 500/1 To Finish 9th-24th

Borussia Dortmund are assured of a play-off place, but like their Bundesliga rivals Bayern Munich, they are likely to remain out of the top eight even with a victory. In fact, their scenario is almost identical to the one mentioned for Bayern in that, even if they record a win over Shakhtar, they'd need at least four of the nine clubs on 13-15pts not to win, and three of those clubs - Atletico Madrid (5th), AC Milan (6th) and Atalanta (7th) - could draw and still finish above Dortmund.

A win for Shakhtar would take them on to 10 points, but given their much inferior goal difference to the clubs already on 10 points - not to mention they'd need Man City not to win - then they are effectively already eliminated from the competition.

Brest (13th) v Real Madrid (16th)

Brest 13pts, +2 GD - 8/1 To Finish Top 8

Real Madrid 12pts, +5 GD - 30/1 To Finish Top 8

Brest are assured of a play-off place but they could climb into the top eight with a win over Real Madrid if other results go their way. Both Arsenal and Inter Milan (16pts) have a much better goal difference than Brest so realistically the French side can only overtake the clubs on 15, 14 and 13pts with a win, so in order to climb into the top eight they would require five of the eight clubs immediately above them to draw or lose.

Real Madrid are also assured of a play-off place, and that is likely to be where they will finish as a win over Brest would take them to 15 points, and given that there are two clubs on 12 points with a better goal difference than Real, and a further nine clubs on 13-15 points, it is extremely unlikely that so many results will go in their favour to allow them to climb into the top eight.

Dinamo Zagreb (26th) v AC Milan (6th)

Dinamo Zagreb 8pts, -8 GD - 9/2 To Finish 9th-24th

AC Milan 15pts, +4 GD - 1/5 To Finish Top 8

Dinamo Zagreb must beat AC Milan to have any chance of finishing in the play-off places. A win will take them to 11 points but because of their big negative goal difference they are unlikely to overtake the two other clubs on 11 points - PSV and Brugge - even if both of those clubs lose. This means that with a win, Dinamo will require at least two of the five clubs immediately above them not to win, and of those five clubs, four of them (all on 10 points) will still finish above Dinamo with a draw because of their much better goal difference.

A win for AC Milan will guarantee a place in the Round of 16 courtesy of a top eight finish. A draw however will leave the Italian club requiring other results to go their way as there are six clubs on 13 points that could overtake them with a win, while at least a draw for Atalanta would move them above the Italians, though a couple of those clubs on 13 points - Lille and Brest - would likely need to win by at least three goals to overtake Milan.

Girona (31st) v Arsenal (3rd)

Girona 3pts, -7 GD

Arsenal 16pts, +12 GD

Girona have already been eliminated from the competition.

Arsenal are assured of a play-off place, but they are - according to some super computers - 99.9% certain of finishing in the top eight. A win or draw will definitely see the Gunners finish in the top eight but even with a defeat, it would take an extraordinary set of results and scorelines for six clubs to overtake them. Arsenal can be backed at 6/1 to win the Champions League.

Inter Milan (4th) v Monaco (10th)

Inter Milan 16pts, +7 GD - 1/80 To Finish Top 8

Monaco 13pts, +3 GD - 9/2 To Finish Top 8

Inter Milan just need to avoid defeat to qualify for the Round of 16 courtesy of a top eight finish, though even a defeat would give them a chance of finishing in the top eight. With a defeat, as long as it's not by more than two goals, Inter would require at least five of the nine clubs immediately below them no to win to remain in the top eight.

Monaco are assured of a play-off place though a win  over Inter would give them a good chance of finishing in the top eight. A win by at least a two-goal margin would see them move above Inter which would almost guarantee a top eight finish, though a win by a single-goal margin would see them finish below Inter and mean that they'd require at least four of the other six clubs on 13 and 14 points not to win.

Juventus (17th) v Benfica (21st)

Juventus 12pts, +4 GD - 50/1 To Finish Top 8

Benfica 10pts, +2 GD - 1/6 To Finish 9th-24th

Juventus are assured of a play-off place and that is likely were they'll remain come the conclusion of the final matchday as, because of their inferior goal difference to three other clubs on 12 points, and the fact that there are nine clubs on 13-15 points, they would require at least nine clubs positioned between 5th and 16th no to win. Pretty much like the Celtic scenario, it's not going to happen.

Although not mathematically certain, a draw will all but guarantee a play-off place for Benfica because of the fact that of the two clubs on eight points, Dinamo Zagreb have a far inferior goal difference, and of the three other clubs on 10 points, two of them play each other meaning at least one of those clubs would finish below Benfica.

A defeat for the Portuguese club gives them a good chance of qualifying also as four of the five clubs immediately below them would need to win or draw to move above them. If there's a winner in the Stuttgart v PSG game then Benfica will definitely finish in the play-off places if Dinamo Zagreb fail to beat AC Milan.

Lille (12th) v Feyenoord (11th)

Lille 13pts, +2 GD - 6/4 To Finish Top 8

Feyenoord 13pts, +2 GD - 5/1 To Finish Top 8

Lille are assured of a play-off place but a win gives them a decent chance of finishing in the top eight as it would mean they would definitely finish above Feyenoord, meaning they'd require at least three of the other seven clubs on 13-15 points no to win (or draw in the cases of Atletico Madrid and AC Milan depending on the margin of Lille's win).

The scenario is exactly the same for Feyenoord, they are assured of a play-off place but a win would mean that they would require three of the other seven clubs on 13-15 points no to win (or draw in the cases of Atletico Madrid and AC Milan depending on the margin of Feyenoord's win) in order to finish in the top eight.

Man City (25th) v Brugge (20th)

Man City 8pts, +2 GD - 1/6 To Finish 9th-24th

Brugge 11pts, -2 GD - 1/16 To Finish 9th-24th

Incredibly, Manchester City are in danger of elimination but at least their path to the play-off stage is a simple one. They have to beat Club Brugge. Nothing else will do for Pep Guardiola's men, a draw or defeat will see one of the pre-tournament favourites sensationally eliminated. A win and Man City will definitely progress to the play-off stage as they will move above Brugge on goal difference, and they only need to move up one place to finish in the top 24.

Uefa Champions League - Top 6 Shots On Target

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Club Brugge just need to avoid defeat to reach the play-off stage, however if they do lose then they will still finish in the play-off places if just one of Benfica, PSG, Sporting Lisbon or Stuttgart lose. If all four of those clubs at least draw then Brugge will be eliminated if they lose at the Etihad Stadium. As Stuttgart host PSG on the final matchday, Brugge will also finish in the play-off places if there's a winner in that game.

PSV (19th) v Liverpool (1st)

PSV 11pts, +3 GD

Liverpool 21pts, +13 GD - 1/14 To Be League Stage Winner

PSV are assured of a play-off place because even with a defeat to Liverpool they would require six of the seven clubs immediately below them to overtake PSV in the table, but given that four of those seven clubs face each other (Stuttgart v PSG and Man City v Club Brugge) then it's impossible for the Dutch side to be eliminated.

Liverpool have qualified for the Round of 16 courtesy of a top eight finish. If they avoid defeat to PSV they will finish top of the group stage, they will also finish top if they lose and Barcelona fail to beat Atalanta. Liverpool are 4/1 favourites to win the Champions League.

Uefa Champions League - Top 6 Shots On Target

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RB Salzburg (34th)  v Atletico Madrid (5th)

RB Salzburg 3pts, -19 GD

Atletico Madrid 15pts, +5 GD - 1/7 To Finish Top 8

RB Salzburg have already been eliminated from the competition.

A win for Atletico Madrid will see them qualify for the Round of 16 courtesy of a top eight finish. A draw will also see them finish in the top eight providing that at least four of the eight teams immediately below them don't win. And of those eight clubs, if Atletico do draw then Lille or Brest would need to win by a four-goal margin to overtake the La Liga club, while Monaco and Feyenoord would likely need to win by at least a three-goal margin to overtake them.

Sporting Lisbon (23rd) v Bologna (28th)

Sporting Lisbon 10pts, +1 GD - 1/80 To Finish 9th-24th

Bologna 5pts, -5 GD

Because of Dinamo Zagreb' huge negative goal difference and that Stuttgart and PSG play each other, Sporting Lisbon just need to avoid defeat at home to already eliminated Bologna to reach the play-off stage. A defeat - as long as not by a three or four goal margin - will also see them reach the play-off stage if Stuttgart lose to PSG or Manchester City fail to beat Club Brugge. And Sporting will even reach the play-offs if PSG lose to Stuttgart by a bigger margin than their own defeat.

Bologna have already been eliminated from the competition.

Sturm Graz (33rd) v RB Leipzig (30th)

Sturm Graz 3pts, -6 GD

RB Leipzig 3pts, -10 GD

Sturm Graz have already been eliminated from the competition.

RB Leipzig have already been eliminated from the competition.

Stuttgart (24th) v PSG (22nd)

Stuttgart 10pts, -1 GD - 4/9 To Finish 9th-24th

PSG 10pts, +1 GD - 1/7 To Finish 9th-24th

Stuttgart effectively just need to avoid defeat to reach the play-off stage. This is because a win will move them above PSG, while a draw will mean that two out of Man City, Club Brugge and Dinamo Zagreb will finish below them (Dinamo because of their goal difference and whatever the outcome in the City v Brugge match means one of those would definitely finish below Stuttgart). A defeat for Stuttgart will see them eliminated if either Man City or Dinamo Zagreb win.

Because of Dinamo Zagreb' huge negative goal difference PSG just need to avoid defeat to Stuttgart to reach the play-off stage, this is because a draw will mean they will definitely finish above the Bundesliga outfit. However, a defeat for PSG will put them in huge danger of elimination simply because they will drop below Stuttgart, and that the other two clubs who can move above them - Man City and Sporting Lisbon - have very winnable home games.

Young Boys (36th) v Red Star Belgrade (32nd)

Young Boys 0pts, -23 GD

Red Star Belgrade 3pts, -10 GD

Young Boys have already been eliminated from the competition.

Red Star Belgrade have already been eliminated from the competition.