Bundesliga Tips: Back wounded Bayern to recover | OneFootball

German Bundesliga

Harry Kane and Bayern are out of the Champions League

We're into the final few weeks of the Bundesliga season, and TV commentator Kevin Hatchard has a trio of betting tips for us.

Betfair Saturday Football Superboost

Two forwards in form are the focus of Saturday's Betfair football superboost. Manchester City's Marmoush will give Everton's defenders plenty to think about while West Ham's Jarrod Bowen should be be a handful for Southampton.

Between them Marmoush and Bowen have had 18 shots on target in their last five matches. The price on them each having one or more on Saturday has been boosted from 1/2 to 1/1.

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Heidenheim v Bayern Munich - Bayern to bounce back

Saturday 19 April, 14:30

In the wind and rain on an inclement Milan evening, Bayern's Champions League dream died for another season. The rekordmeister were desperate to play the final in their home stadium, but it will be a different team who will lift that famous trophy at the Allianz Arena in late May.

Trailing 2-1 from the first leg, Bayern did level the tie at San Siro when Harry Kane drilled the ball into the bottom corner in the 52nd minute, but within nine minutes of that opener, Bayern were 2-1 down on the night and 4-2 down on aggregate. Inter scored from two corners in quick succession, and a late goal from Eric Dier (his first for Bayern) proved too little, too late.

That leaves the Bundesliga title as Bayern's only available avenue to glory in Vincent Kompany's maiden season as coach, and they are six points clear at the top with the best goal difference in the league by miles. No team has ever blown the league title from this position at this stage of the season.

Bayern lost at Heidenheim last term in one of their worst displays under Thomas Tuchel, but they've been good at duffing up the lesser lights this term, and I'll back them to beat a team that has lost 19 times in the league. FCH are in the playoff spot, they were beaten 4-2 at Bayern earlier in the season, and I can't see them containing the league leaders.

We can back Bayern to win, Harry Kane to score and Bayern to win five or more corners at a combined price of 6/5 on the Sportsbook. Bayern have won nine of their last 14 Bundesliga away matches, Kane is the league's top scorer with 23 goals, and Bayern have won an average of 6.6 corners in the league this term.

RB Leipzig v Holstein Kiel - Resurgent Red Bulls can win again

Saturday 19 April, 14:30

As gut-wrenching as it was for Leipzig to fire hometown hero Marco Rose, their change of coach seems to have provided the spark the club sorely needed. Caretaker boss Zsolt Low - a former assistant of Thomas Tuchel's at Chelsea and Bayern, has delivered two league wins and six goals. Hoffenheim were seen off 3-1 after a shaky start, and then a Xavi double inspired a 3-2 win at Wolfsburg.

Xavi is suspended for this game against rock-bottom Holstein Kiel, but I still expect die Roten Bullen to win comfortably. Strike partnership Lois Openda and Benjamin Sesko have delivered 20 league goals between them, and Openda has been a man revitalised in recent weeks, netting important goals against Borussia Dortmund and Wolfsburg.

Holstein Kiel were always going to be up against it this season. This is their first ever Bundesliga campaign, they spent very modestly in the summer, and they just don't have enough quality or top-level experience to compete at this level. They have made a series of catastrophic errors in matches, the latest of which was the stoppage-time own goal by Max Geschwill that saw them lose last week's home game against St Pauli.

Kiel have lost eight of their last 11 on the road, but usefully for our purposes they have scored in all of those losses, because a Leipzig win with BTTS comes in at an attractive 13/10 on the Sportsbook. Leipzig have only managed three clean sheets in their last 11 home games in the league.

St Pauli v Bayer Leverkusen - Champions to win, but only just

Sunday 20 April, 18:30Live on Sky Sports

If Bayer Leverkusen fail to retain the meisterschale, as currently looks likely, they will reflect on a host of chances missed in 2025. When leaders Bayern have slipped in recent weeks, Leverkusen have failed to take advantage. Bayern lost at home to Bochum, and at the same time Leverkusen were defeated at home by Werder Bremen. Last weekend, Bayern drew Der Klassiker at home against Borussia Dortmund, but earlier that day Xabi Alonso's champions had been held to a frustrating 0-0 draw at home by Union Berlin.

When the top two met at the BayArena in the league earlier this year, Bayer totally dominated the game, but failed to force a winner in a goalless draw. All of that means that Leverkusen trail Bayern by six points with just five matchdays left.

Sunday night's opponents St Pauli took a big stride towards their main objective last weekend, as they secured a dramatic 2-1 victory at Holstein Kiel. It means the Kiezkicker are now a healthy seven points clear of the relegation playoff spot, and nine away from the automatic dropzone. If other results have gone their way earlier in the matchday, a win could virtually secure the avoidance of a bottom-two finish.

St Pauli will be competitive here, but with superstar Florian Wirtz back in the Bayer lineup and a full week of preparation behind them, I'll back the visitors to win and Under 4.5 Goals at 10/11 on the Sportsbook. St Pauli have seen an Under 4.5 Goals bet land in all of their Bundesliga home games this term, and they have only scored nine goals at home all season.

As for Bayer, they have won seven of their last nine Bundesliga away matches, and in the reverse fixture they edged out St Pauli 2-1. That scoreline would do us fine.

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