BBC Sport pundit comments on Newcastle United are laughable | OneFootball

I spotted this on BBC Sport on Monday.

They were reporting on comments from pundit Stephen Warnock on Newcastle United’s defensive record this season, compared to last season.

The BBC Sport pundit commenting following that seven goal thriller against West Ham on Saturday and the season overall.

Former Premier League defender Stephen Warnock says Newcastle’s back line is no longer “watertight” and that is why they are conceding “far too many” goals.

The Magpies earned a thrilling 4-3 win over West Ham on Saturday but are considerably down on several defensive metrics from last season.

“The drop-off is huge,” Warnock told BBC Match of the Day. “This is Newcastle’s problem.

“They score a lot of goals but they concede far too many. That defence is not watertight anymore and it is not difficult to play against.

“It will be disappointing to Eddie Howe.”

The thing is, such ‘analysis’ is laughable, all but meaningless.

You are not comparing like with like, two totally different situations.

If you don’t point out all the relevant factors then putting this stuff out is embarrassing.

Relevant stats

Last season (2022/23), the first choice back five of Pope, Trippier, Schar, Botman and Burn were available for a combined 188 Premier League matches out of a possible 190. Three of the defenders were in all 38 matchday squads, whilst Schar missed one PL matchday squad and Nick Pope also one, however, the goalkeeper would have played in that final match of the season as well but NUFC had already guaranteed fourth place and so he had an operation on a finger early.

Last season, Trippier started all 38 PL matches, Pope 37, Schar 36, Burn and Botman 35 each, whilst as I say, they were on the bench in seven of the other nine occasions as well.

This 2023/24 season, Pope and the first choice back four, out of a combined 145 Premier League potential starts, they have started only 106. Plus of course, there have been so many changes in personnel and positions (just look at Saturday’s West Ham match!) in defence. A settled defence is a massive advantage. Also, the likes of Burn and Botman have played a lot of games when they weren’t 100 per cent to try and help the squad, with so many other players missing.

In the Premier League this season, so many other Newcastle United players have featured in goal and in the back four (or five). Making PL appearances (starts and from the bench) this season in defence have been Dubravka (15), Karius (1), Lascelles (16), Dummett (1), Targett (3), Krafth (8), Hall (9), Livramento (22) and Alex Murohy (1). That doesn’t even include the likes of Jacob Murphy ending up in defence, as he did against West Ham.

It wasn’t just in defence last season, where Newcastle United had more stability and continuity.

Last season, the likes of Joelinton and Willock were key to protecting the defence, then Tonali was the big summer 2023 signing to improve that further.

Tonali of course ended up getting a ten months ban and has hardly played, whilst both Willock and Joelinton have missed so much of this season. Defending isn’t Bruno’s biggest strength, Longstaff has needed painkilling injections just to be able to play due to a longstanding foot injury, whilst a 17 year old has had to play for four or five months and for much of that he was playing every weekend and midweek. Then with so many players missing, most of the time no real options off the bench to replace tiring midfield legs, it was always going to be a recipe for a tough time in defence.

Nick Pope

One of the very best keepers in the Premier League, Pope has been massively missed.

Last season he conceded 32 goals in 37 Premier League starts.

This season, Pope conceded 14 goals when starting the first 14 PL matches of the season.

Since Nick Pope got injured, these next 15 PL matches have seen 37 goals conceded!

In Pope’s last 10 PL starts, he conceded only seven goals and kept six clean sheets.

The best form of defence is…

The bottom line is that even with numerous missing players both in midfield and attack, undoubtedly Newcastle’s best form of defence this season has been attack. Only Liverpool and Arsenal have bettered Newcastle’s 63 PL goals so far.

With so many of our best defenders and defensive midfielders unavailable, if Eddie Howe had gone far more defensive, then I think reality is that NUFC would have ended up conceding at least as many goals BUT scored far fewer at the other end.

This season has just been crazy with the number of players missing so many matches and so for this BBC Sport pundit or indeed anybody else, to try and draw comparisons with last season’s excellent record, is just laughable.