Arsenal v Bournemouth: Why 15/1 Cherries can cause huge upset

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·3 mai 2024

Arsenal v Bournemouth: Why 15/1 Cherries can cause huge upset

Saliba is becoming rash in big games - back his foul count
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Arsenal v BournemouthSaturday May 04, 12:30Live on TNT Sports
Cherries to pop Arsenal's title bid
Backing losers comes with the territory of being a punter. Being able to take emotion or any ill-feeling after such an occurrence is a key part of trying to stay ahead in this great game. That's what I'm pretty good at. Being a good loser.
Making week-on-week score predictions across Sky Sports leaves your jaw wide open when a particular opinion on a team goes spectacularly wrong.
I'm always happy to take the view that if I'm going to get something wrong, I'm happy to get it very wrong.
I once tipped Leeds to beat Man City and they lost 7-0 and although I copped a lot of abuse, I felt it didn't affect my confidence as much I thought it would. That's because it works the other way too, when you get something at a nice price right, you get it very right. It all balances out.
That's what I'm more than happy to advise people to back Bournemouth to win this game at 16.015/1 on the Betfair Exchange knowing fair well that my timeline will be full of after timing Arsenal fans taking huge pleasure in proving me wrong. That's cool too. It's part of the game.
In a nutshell, to save you having to open another web page, two of my betting theories come together here perfectly which means I've got to back it up with a brave bet.
In that Arsenal are still not Manchester City-like when it comes to monster matches in terms of getting the job done and I'm still convinced a big result will drop Bournemouth's way this season. This is the last chance of that happening.
To my money and various expected points models, Bournemouth are actually the sixth-best team in the Premier League.
Since the Cherries were beaten 6-1 by Man City in November, Andoni Iraola has masterminded a run of form that has seen Bournemouth take 42 points from 25 games.
This run of form is backed up by some sensational underlying defensive metrics, suggesting they are unfortunate not to have even more points in their bag.
In those last 23 games, they are working at an expected goals-against ratio of 1.22 per 90 minutes - a process only bettered by Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool. And, when assessing the xG battles across their last 27 games in all competitions, they have won 21 of them.
A giant just might be slayed before the season is out, so I'm happy to lay Arsenal and also back Bournemouth to win the game at 16.015/1 on the Exchange.
Saliba's foul count could spike vs Solanke
With Arsenal predicted to find this a very tough encounter, William Saliba's foul count has also come to my attention at the prices. When the Gunners can't cruise through games Saliba seems to be affected more than most. He's a fantastic player, don't get me wrong, but there have been occasions this season where the bigger the game the worse Saliba plays.
He becomes more erratic with his decision making and makes more aggressive challenges with his defending, which does lead to his foul counts being an angle to exploit.
In matches against Liverpool, Bayern Munich, Porto, Aston Villa and Tottenham this calendar year, he has made 14 fouls in nine appearances. That average of 1.5 fouls per 90 is a huge spike on his raw data across the Premier League season which stands at 0.7.
He'll be tasked with encountering the very streetwise Dominic Solanke through the middle who is very smart at drawing fouls with his back to goal. He has drawn 19 fouls in his last 12 starts, winning three fouls in their last game with Brighton.