xG Philosophy: Brentford’s three most unlikely goals last season | OneFootball

Playmaker Stats is delighted to be working with Brentford again for the 2024/25 season and, in tandem with the popular xG Philosophy account, we are introducing a brand-new feature focused on 'expected goals', or xG as it is better known.

Increasingly influential in the modern game, xG statistics aim to quantify how well teams are performing; mathematical data used to measure how clinical, or otherwise, players and teams are in specific moments, during games and over seasons as a whole.

Founder of the popular xG Philosophy account and author of new book xGenius, James Tippett describes xG as a tool to "strip randomness from the beautiful game and enable us to see a clear image of what is actually happening on the field of play" and our xG articles during the coming campaign plan to do just that.

To kick us off, our first xG article will run you through the three 'hardest' Premier League goals Brentford scored last season - aka the goals with the lowest expected goals measurement.

Before we announce our podium, let's quickly review exactly how the expected goals metric works.

At one extreme, there are chances with a high xG (the maximum possible xG being 1). So, a tap-in on the goal line under no pressure would have an xG in the region of 1(xG).

Way down the other end of the spectrum, a 65-yard overhead attempt from in front of the dugout would carry a very low expected goals rating near to 0(xG).

Right, let's go!

3. Kevin Schade v Crystal Palace: 0.06(xG)

At three, with an exceptionally low xG and thus an impressively high difficulty rating, is Kevin Schade's first-ever Premier League goal for the Bees against Crystal Palace at the start of the last campaign.

Picking up the ball wide on the left with a posse of Palace players between him and Sam Johnstone in the Eagles' goal, Schade certainly had plenty to do.

However, after twisting Joel Ward this way and that, the German international cut in from close to the byline and arrowed a gorgeous right-foot finish into the top corner.

It was a great way for Schade to open his account for Brentford - and hopefully fans can expect more strikes of that calibre from the fit-again forward next term.

2. Yoane Wissa v Newcastle: 0.03(xG)

Our runner-up is Brentford's top scorer last season: Yoane Wissa.

The DR Congo international finished the campaign in electric form and his strike in the Bees' final game of the season against Newcastle carried an exceptionally low expected goals rating, according to xG Philosophy's state-of-the-art data.

Wissa had already provided an assist for Vitaly Janelt in the 4-2 reverse against the Magpies when he latched onto an Ivan Toney header on the edge of the box.

After wriggling free of Newcastle's Dan Burn, Wissa managed to shape an inch-perfect shot around another Toon defender and past the despairing dive of goalkeeper Nick Pope.

The 27-year-old netted a career-best 12 Premier League goals last season and - statistically speaking - this was the least likely to find the net.

1. Saman Ghoddos v Burnley: 0.01(xG)

In 51 Premier League appearances for the Bees, Saman Ghoddos scored just two goals, both against Burnley, and what goals they were!

Ghoddos' sumptuous scissor-kick against the Clarets in the 2021/22 season was a magical moment, but when his favourite opponents rolled into Gtech Community Stadium on a wet October weekend last year, the Iran international arguably conjured up something even more special.

With a cry of 'Shoooooot' echoing from the terraces, Ghoddos controlled a clearance on his chest 25 yards from goal before unleashing a deliciously sweet half-volley that scorched past James Trafford.

The probability of smashing a bouncing ball through a crowd of players from that distance into Trafford's net was low. Very low, in fact, as Ghoddos's screamer carried an expected goals value of just 0.01(xG).

To put that in perspective, only 10 other top-flight goals last season were that 'low' in xG terms!