What convinced Man Utd to spend £74m on Benjamin Sesko transfer | OneFootball

Man Utd have committed a whopping £74 million to sign Benjamin Sesko, who they are hoping will be the team’s star striker for the next five years at least.

The deal sees them pay an initial transfer fee of £66.26m (€76.5m), plus a potential £7.36m (€8.5m) in performance-related add-ons.

That’s a huge figure for a forward is just 22 years of age and has played only two seasons in one of Europe’s top five leagues. So why were the Red Devils so willing to part with such a large sum of money?

What convinced Man Utd to spend £74m on Sesko transfer

Man Utd themselves say their data analysis and research helped them conclude that Sesko has “the required qualities and personality to thrive” at Old Trafford. Indeed, The Athletic report that their scouting dates back seven years, so they had a ton of data and reports to rely on.

In their statement announcing his arrival, they point out he scored 39 goals for Leipzig, the most of any player under the age of 23 over the past two seasons. It’s a nice stat, but the underlying numbers don’t make for great reading. In the Champions League and Bundesliga he scored 33 goals from just 21.7 non-penalty expected goals (npxG), according to FBref. That means he scored 11.3 goals more than ‘expected’ by the data, a huge overperformance that no one should expect to continue.

This follows the trend of their transfer business when it comes to attacking signings this summer. Both Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha were number one and two respectively on the list of biggest npxG overperformers in the Premier League last season. This is generally the opposite of what smart clubs look for when judging potential future performance; Liverpool, for instance, almost always acquire forwards who had underperformed relative to their xG, like Mo Salah for example. They are betting on the possibility of that correcting itself, while Man Utd are simply hoping that their newcomers are awesome finishers who will continue delivering at the same rate.

It seems more likely, from this writer’s point of view, that Sesko’s physical traits were far more important in their decision to sign him than his numbers. The Slovenia international is, as a Proper Football Man might put it, a Big Lad. But he’s also quick and willing to run himself into the ground for the team.

Read – Sesko explains why he chose Man Utd over Newcastle transfer

Ruben Amorim evidently loves this about him, as well as his workrate. “He is really young, he’s good in the air, he’s good running the channels, he’s good on the ball. So I think he has a great potential,” the manager said.

Man Utd director of football Jason Wilcox went even further, commenting that Sesko “possesses a rare combination of electrifying pace and the ability to physically dominate defenders, making him one of the most exceptional young talents in world football”.

Will those characteristics translate into the goals that Man Utd need to make them a relevant force again? Only time will tell.

Read – Man Utd forward ‘not scared’ by Benjamin Sesko competition

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