Tuesday Football Tips: Back fouls in Arsenal v PSG 9/2 Bet Builder | OneFootball

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Achraf Hakimi features in our four-legged Bet Builder for Arsenal v PSG

Our football props column is targeting the foul markets when Arsenal host Paris Saint-Germain in the first Champions League semi-final on Tuesday.

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We're off to the foul markets for Tuesday's Champions League semi-final at the Emirates.

Why? I hear you ask.

Well, we've got the highest-fouling team left in the competition - Arsenal - and the most-fouled team of the four semi-finalists, PSG, going head to head.

There's also a good referee appointment in terms of fouls.

Slavko Vincic is averaging 24 per game in this season's Champions League, well above the competition average of 21.28.

Usually a small data sample would be a worry but this will actually be the Slovenian's 10th Champions League match of the campaign - a new record for any referee in a UCL season.

Leg 1: Bukayo Saka to be fouled 2+ times

I'm actually going to focus in on what should be a key battle in the contest and that's down the Arsenal right where Bukayo Saka will be going up against Nuno Mendes.

Saka has long been one of Arsenal's most-fouled players and he's won 2+ fouls in 15 of his 27 starts this season.

Since his return from injury, he's landed this bet in two of his three starts, being fouled three times in both legs of the quarter-final against Real Madrid.

Leg 2: Nuno Mendes to commit 2+ fouls

Mendes' numbers aren't quite as good but it's notable that, when the level of opposition has increased, so have his foul figures.

He's committed multiple fouls in games against Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid, Manchester City and Aston Villa and I'm happy to put him down to commit 2+ fouls when going up against Saka in this one.

Leg 3: Nuno Mendes to be fouled 1+ time

With Mendes also being PSG's most-fouled player in this competition - 24 times in 13 appearances - I'm also going to stick him down to be fouled at least once.

Saka is certainly no stranger to tracking back and fouling his man and Mendes will look to push on.

Leg 4: Achraf Hakimi to be fouled 1+ time

Finally, I also like Achraf Hakimi to be fouled 1+ time.

The right-back loves to surge forward, as we saw against Aston Villa, and this has now occurred in 10 of 14 Champions League matches this season.

He'll likely be up against Miles Lewis-Skelley and Gabriel Martinelli down that flank and both Gunners have decent enough foul records - Lewis-Skelley has committed one in four of his five UCL starts, while Martinelli has done likewise in seven of his last eight.

The four legs combine to form a 9/2 Bet Builder - let's hope for a gritty first leg which certainly would be no surprise.

Recommended bets

Back Saka fouled 2+ times, Mendes commit 2+ fouls & fouled 1+ time and Hakimi fouled 1+ time @ around 9/2

Column P/L 2024/25

Staked: 278pts Returned: 303.3pts 2024/25 P/L: +25.3pts

2023/24 P/L: +16.78pts 2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts

Paul Higham's Build Ups Tips:

Player To Have More Shots On Target

I thought I'd look away from the respective forward lines to try and fins some value and a player that stood out is PSG right-back Achraf Hakimi, who I'm backing against Arsenal captain Martin Odegaard in a Shots on Target Match Up at the Emirates.

Hakimi's stats are pretty solid for an attacking right-back, with his shots on target stats reading 0.92 per 90 minutes in the Champions League, compared to 0.58 for Odegarrd this season, so even just on those numbers the 3/1 on the Moroccan looks enticing.

He's scored twice and hit the target in nine Champions League games this season, including at the Emirates back in October, and crucially for a bet like this he's had four games with 2+ shots on target.

Odegarrd has three goals in the competition, but two of those came in the rout of PSV and he's hit the target in just two of his last nine games for club and country - plus he may have a bit more defending to do here with PSG so good on the ball.

Player To Win More Fouls

It's not often we can get odds against on any kind of bet on Bukayo Saka being fouled, but at 11/10 we can take him to win a Player To Win More Fouls Match Up at the Emirates.

And that's because PSG's excellent winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is also on the pitch, and one of the few players that can match Saka's stats for drawing fouls.

The Georgian has been fouled 12 times in six UCL games compared to 13 in seven for Saka with them both have four 2+ fouled games so there's hardly anything between them.

That side of the pitch should be fascinating with full-backs Nuno Mendes and Jurrien Timber right up against it and both giving away plenty of fouls - but I just think giving Saka home advantage with European referees should give him the edge.