Thursday Football Tips: Take Europa League cards punt at 19/1 | OneFootball

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Pedro Naressi: Has regularly troubled the referees in UEFA competitions

There look good reasons to expect cards in one of Thursday's Europa League ties - and our football props column is taking a 19/1 punt...

Ludogorets v AZ AlkmaarThursday 12 December, 17:45Live on discovery+

I always take a look at the card stats before considering the Europa League coupon.

It doesn't always work out - usually when I start writing about it in this column! - but ideally you want to find two dirty teams, matched with a disciplinarian referee and this game hits all those nails on the head.

Only two sides have received more cards than Ludogorets (18 yellows, one red) in this competition, while AZ are also going well on that front with 15 yellows and two reds collected so far.

The man with the whistle is Kristo Tohver and the Estonian has a good track record in the UEFA club competitions, showing at least four cards in 21 of his last 27 and 5+ in 18 of those.

He also handed out a whopping 15 cards in a Nations League tie earlier this season.

Leg 1: Both teams over 1.5 cards

So, with cards looking likely, what to back?

Well, both sides over 1.5 cards looks a very solid base - each team has received 2+ in all of their games in the league phase so far.

In addition, eight of the 10 combined games have seen opponents receive over 1.5 cards.

Leg 2: Over 4.5 cards

Over 4.5 cards - which Tohver matches land more often than not (see above) - pushes the price up a bit further and that treble pays 8/11.

However, to get the odds higher, a raid on the player-card market looks wise.

Leg 3: Pedro Naressi to be shown a card

The stand-out candidate is Ludogorets captain Pedro Naressi.

The Brazilian midfielder has been carded in eight of his 14 starts in UEFA competitions since moving to the Bulgarian champions, including all four this season.

Leg 4: Sven Mijnans to be shown a card

In opposition, Sven Mijnans is also worth considering.

He's got five cards in 20 appearances this season but notably has been moved into a more defensive role of late which traditionally brings more tackles, fouls and cards.

With a card-fest looking more than possible, the Mijnans-Naressi double is worth a punt and I'm going to throw in the other, aforementioned card elements to take the odds up to 19/1.

It shouldn't need saying but consider the singles - a lot of them in this column do win, although hitting the Bet Builders on a regular basis is an awful lot harder.

Recommended bets

Over 4.5 cards, each team over 1.5 cards and Pedro Naressi & Sven Mijnans both to be shown a card @ around 19/1

Column P/L 2024/25

Staked: 150pts Returned: 166.93pts P/L: +16.93pts

2023/24 P/L: +16.78pts 2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts