Serie A preview: Genoa vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

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·4 de mayo de 2025

Serie A preview: Genoa vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

AC Milan will close out round 35 of Serie A when they take on Genoa at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris in the Monday night fixture slot.

For Milan, the chances of finishing much higher than ninth in the league table are pretty low, but they must aim to win for two reasons. Firstly because there is an obligation to the fans after such a bad season, and secondly to try build some momentum in view of the Coppa Italia final.

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Sergio Conceicao meanwhile is in pursuit of pride given that every major source is in agreement that he will leave the Rossoneri. In his pre-match press conference he spoke of determination to end the campaign strongly, especially in view of the game in Rome.

Game date: Monday, May 5 Kick-off time: 20:45 (CEST) Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris Referee: Giuseppe Collu (VAR: Gariglio)

Team news

Milan are actually in good form coming into this game, at least by the standards otherwise set in 2024-25. They have three wins in their last four games, with three clean sheets, only one goal conceded and nine scored.

That is mostly down to the change in formation to a 3-4-3, which has brought some balance and stability in ways we analysed in a recent feature. As such, it is expected that Conceicao will stick with that system.

Something of a rarity is that the Rossoneri have no injuries at present. Luka Jovic missed the Venezia game with lower back pain but returned to full training on Saturday, while Emerson Royal was back with the squad at Milanello after 100 days out.

There are currently two doubts for Conceicao to resolve before kick-off. The first concerns the striker: Jovic is back but is not at 100%, so it will be a choice between Tammy Abraham and Santi Gimenez. The Englishman has the advantage.

The other doubt concerns the right side: Alex Jimenez has deservedly earned his place in the starting line-up but Kyle Walker is back from injury and could find his place in the starting line-up again.

Leading the team from between the sticks should be Mike Maignan once again, and in front of him, Conceicao is expected to keep the defensive unit together, meaning Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia and Strahinja Pavlovic should remain.

Alex Jimenez is expected to be given the nod currently on the right, and Theo Hernandez should keep his place on the left. In central midfield, the season’s shining partnership of Tijjani Reijnders and Youssouf Fofana is set to start.

Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images

Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leao should lead proceedings on the frontline, but there is a difficult for the striker spot – Tammy Abraham is injured, whilst the club don’t want to rush Luka Jovic back, so Santiago Gimenez could start.

Predicted Milan XI (3-4-3): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Jimenez, Fofana, Reijnders, Hernandez; Pulisic, Jovic, Leao.

The opponents

We outlined the summer business that Genoa did in our preview before the meeting at San Siro back in September, when Milan were celebrating their 125th birthday but were ultimately left frustrated by a stalemate.

Stability was the main aim for Genoa after they finished 11th last season, with the aim for the club being to become an established mid-table Serie a club. They were forced into a coaching change in November, with Alberto Gilardino getting sacked after one win in the first 10 games.

Patrick Vieira came in and he has done more than enough to guide them to comfortable safety. The Rossoblu sit in 13th in the table, and though they are winless and goalless in three games, the feeling is of a job well done.

The Grifone have become resolute as well. They have the best defensive record of any side in the bottom half aside from Torino with 41 goals conceded, but they have struggled to score with just 29 goals in their 34 matches.

Vieira has a long injury list to deal with including Maxwel Cornet, Caleb Ekuban, Hugo Cuenca, Jean Onana, Ruslan Malinovskyi and Fabio Miretti. Defender Sebastian Otoa has served a suspension after getting a red card on his debut, so he is back in the fold.

Leali is expected to start between the sticks once again, and Patrick Vieira is not considering making any changes elsewhere in his defence. So, Norton-Cuffy, De Winter (who is reportedly a target for the Rossoneri), Vasquez and Martin will line up again.

Ahead of them, Morten Frendrup should captain the Grifone, with Masini and Zanoli ahead of him. Then, Thorsby and Ekhator are expected on the flanks. Pinamonti will lead the side.

Predicted Genoa XI (4-1-4-1): Leali; Norton-Cuffy, De Winter, Vasquez, Martin; Frendrup; Thorsby, Masini, Zanoli, Ekhator; Pinamonti.

Head to head

Milan and Genoa have faced each other 135 times across all competitions, with the Rossoneri prevailing in 61 of these. There have been 45 draws, while Genoa have come away with all three points just 29 times.

The last time these two sides faced at San Siro, it ended up being a bit of a snooze fest. Milan donned their 125th anniversary shirts but they were the most pleasing things to look at as Paulo Fonseca’s side failed to break down the visitors.

In the most recent meeting at the Marassi, Christian Pulisic and Olivier Giroud were decisive for the Rossoneri. The American scored a lovely goal in the 87th minute and after Mike Maignan was sent off, with no subs left, Giroud stepped up in goal and made a couple of crucial stops.

Key facts and stats

➤ Milan and Genoa have drawn their last two Serie A meetings: they’ve not drawn three in a row in the top division since 1991-1992, with the 1991/92 season also the last in which the Rossoneri and the Rossoblu drew both matches.

➤ Milan are unbeaten in 13 of their last 14 league games against Genoa (W9 D4); the Rossoblu’s only win in this period was 2-1 in March 2020, with goals from Goran Pandev and Francesco Cassata (Zlatan Ibrahimovic for the Rossoneri).

➤ Milan have won five of their last six games at the Ferraris against Genoa (D1), keeping four clean sheets. They are looking to keep three clean sheets in a row on Ligurian soil for the first time since 1962.

➤ Milan have won their last three away games in all competitions without conceding a goal; the Rossoneri have not won four in a row since March 2024, while they last did so without conceding (in the same campaign) in December 2003.

➤ Genoa have lost their last two Serie A games and have failed to score in their last three; the Rossoblu have not lost three league games in a row since October 2024 and have not gone four consecutive rounds without a goal since February 2022.

➤ Despite being the team that have attempted the most shots from outside the box (95) since the beginning of 2025 in Serie A (since the arrival of Sérgio Conceicao), Milan are one of three teams in the league that have yet to score from distance in this calendar year – together with Bologna and today’s opponent, Genoa.

➤ Only Parma (28 shots) had fewer shots than Genoa (29, like Cagliari) in the month of April in Serie A; the Ligurians still produced an overall expected goals value of 3.39 in the month, despite scoring just one goal.

➤ Genoa’s Andrea Pinamonti has not found the net in his last nine Serie A games: it is his longest drought in a single topflight championship since 15 consecutive games without a goal between October 2019 and June 2020.

➤ Youssouf Fofana has already provided six assists in this championship; considering the last 20 seasons (since 2005/06), only one central midfielder has managed at least seven assists in his debut season in Serie A with Milan: Hakan Çalhanoglu in 2017/18 (Alberto Aquilani stopped at six in 2011/12).

➤ Christian Pulisic scored the only goal in the only match played in his career at the Ferraris against Genoa (1-0 on 7 October 2023); excluding central attackers (first or second strikers), the American could become the first Milan player to score more than 10 goals in the first two Serie A championships played with the Rossoneri since Luciano Chiarugi (1972/73 and 1973/74).

Ones to watch

It is very cliche, but there are two players to watch above all in this game for Genoa, and it is Koni De Winter and Morten Fredrup. Starting with the defender, he is one of the most appreciated young defenders in the division, and he could cause some big problems.

Then, Frendrup is tasked with stopping Serie A’s best midfield duo, something which he is more than capable of doing. Should he do so, the interest in him from Milan may grow further.

Photo by Giuseppe Cottini/AC Milan via Getty Images

Should Santiago Gimenez start for the Rossoneri, there will instantly be interest on him. Goals have been hard to come by, but last weekend’s against Venezia could be the spur he needs for more, at least we hope so.

Finally, Alex Jimenez’s game could be of interest. Kyle Walker and Emerson Royal are returning, so Jimenez must be at his best to retain his spot. Should he manage these next few games, the spot should undoubtedly be his.

Prediction

This will be a huge test for Milan, as all games are at the moment. If the Rossoneri can get another three points away from home, it bodes excellently for their chances in the next few games and shows the mental difference from the past few months.

Genoa 0-3 AC Milan