Premier League Tips: Villa and Toffees backed plus huge 13/1 Saints shout | OneFootball

English Premier League

Unai Emery's Villa are starting strongly of late

Ste Tudor tips early drama in the Midlands, not much drama on Merseyside, and a minor shock at the Emirates.

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Aston Villa v Fulham (12:30) - 7/1 for history to repeat

Villa have won six of their seven meetings with Fulham since the latter secured promotion in 2020. On four of those occasions they scored three goals.

That's how it played out back in October, though in truth the game could have swung either way. The Cottagers accrued the better xG and had most of the possession but Unai Emery's men were simply more clinical that afternoon.

There were, however, two details that are pertinent with Saturday lunchtime in mind, the first being a combined breakdown in discipline. By the end of a fractious contest seven were booked and two sent off.

That was out of character for Villa but less so for Fulham and it's telling that in 2025 Marco Silva's side have committed 18% more fouls than Villa, reaching double figures for infringements in 14 of their 15 league games this year.

Early goals also featured back in the autumn and that has a relevance to now. Villa have converted four times inside the opening 20 minutes in their last four outings. Fulham meanwhile have conceded inside 15 minutes in three of their last four.

Villa's last five Saturday lunchtime kick-offs incidentally have produced 4.1 goals per 90.

Everton v Ipswich (15:00) - Goals at a premium

Conceding 2.1 goals per 90 over nine months will usually see a team reside in the bottom three but what will most frustrate Ipswich as they absorb their relegation is how meekly they punched back.Last season, on their promotion charge, the Tractor Boys could not be contained going forward, scoring a Championship-high number of goals. This time out, encountering superior rearguards, they have taken on the second fewest number of shots, resulting in just three SOT per 90. A 7.9% chance conversion rate hasn't helped.

Will we see a different kind of performance at Goodison this weekend now that, with relegation confirmed, the pressure has lifted? Ipswich have shown themselves capable of making an impact on their travels, scoring twice in three of their last four away fixtures.

This, though, is Everton under David Moyes. Structurally sound at the back, the Toffees have hosted teams in the lower half of the table on four occasions since the Scot arrived, giving up a shot on target every 24 minutes. Everton to win to nil offers up 7/5.

At the other end, Moyes' men have hardly set the world alight, converting just five in their last eight league outings. If a goal-fest breaks out on Merseyside this Saturday it would be a tremendous outlier.

Leicester v Southampton (15:00) - Low bar

Saints have scored in seven of their last eight away fixtures whereas Leicester last converted at home 10 games ago. That's 15 hours all told of the Foxes firing blanks in front of their suffering supporters.

It's Southampton therefore who should be backed to win this relegation derby, in doing so avoiding the ignominy of becoming the worst Premier League side since the competition formed in 1992. They're presently level with the hapless Derby side of 2008.

Focusing on individuals, Paul Onuachu's injury deprives us of a possible source for goals but Kamaldeen Sulemana has been productive of late, taking on 11 shots in his last four outings. The Ghanaian is 10/11 to have three or more attempts on goal this weekend. Mateus Fernandes has also impressed in recent weeks.

As for the Foxes it's real slim pickings from an attacking perspective, and discipline is the way to go. Wilfred Ndidi has picked up four bookings in his last six games as he attempts in vain to stem his side's consistent haemorrhaging of goals.

Arsenal v Bournemouth (17:30) - Good time to play Gunners

The Cherries head to the Emirates looking to complete the double over Arsenal and this feels like a good time to play them, this fixture being smack-bang in the middle of two Champions League semi-final clashes with PSG. The last three games that have fallen in between Champions League knock-out commitments for Arsenal have been drawn, drawn and lost.

Moreover, with a memorable performance from his best 11 needed in Paris, Mikel Arteta may very well play a weakened side here, one that could even include a couple of league debuts. Andoni Iraola will be eyeing the line-up keenly.

For Bournemouth's part, they have won only one in nine but generally speaking aren't in the worst shape. Besides a bad day at the office at home to Manchester United last weekend, the Cherries' shot-count has remained high while at the other end they are limiting opportunities - just 1.4 big chances ceded per 90 in their last five games.

What particularly intrigues is that even during a period of relative struggle, Bournemouth have scored first in six of their last nine, winning the first-half in five of them.

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